Downstream Weaving Improved Polyester Price Decline Is Not As Pessimistic As Expected.

With the control of the epidemic situation, the resumption of enterprises in late February will be the new focus of efforts of governments at all levels, and the polyester industry chain is also well prepared and just under demand.

The recovery of terminal demand is better than expected, and the textile market will improve significantly this week.

Shengze China Eastern market officially opened in February 21st. Keqiao also announced the resumption of business. It said that the Chinese textile market town was officially resumed in February 18th, and the business was flexible. The business hours were 10:00 - 16:00. According to the survey, local enterprises such as Shaoxing, Wenzhou and Jiaxing did not return to work before February 17th; the first spray, circular machines and warp knitting enterprises in Shaoxing, Haining and Xiaoshan were planned to return to the market in the third week of February. Printing and dyeing enterprises in Jiangsu generally return to work around March, and Shengze, Changshu and Taicang textile enterprises in Jiangsu mostly plan to return to work after 17 to 21 days in February. Fujian Quanzhou circular machine and Youxi warp knitting enterprise initially plan to resume work after February 17th. The circular knitting machine and warp knitting factory in Jieyang, Guangdong is scheduled to return to market after 21 in February.

For the terminal market, the main problems of reemployment include: the staff failed to arrive in time, and the employees needed isolation time and isolation conditions after the return trip. A large number of epidemic prevention materials were needed for reemployment, and the workplaces were not conducive to ventilation, and the upstream and downstream logistics was not completely smooth and the demand for terminal purchase was insufficient. Last week, we can see the implementation of the measures in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, the number of rework in the second half of the week has increased significantly compared with the first half of the week, but it is still expected that the completion of the terminal will still need more time to recover completely. Two

According to the resumption of the three day opening of the Textile City, although there is still a big gap between the absolute value and the daily level before the festival, the speed of recovery is still inspiring. In the first week of the Spring Festival rework in 2019, the turnover was about 1 million meters, which lasted for about a week. The volume of opening this week is 650 thousand M, 970 thousand M and 990 thousand M, which has maintained a similar level last year.

In the tide of rework and rework, preferential policies have been introduced in various parts of Zhejiang, and the "treatment" for rework personnel is getting higher and higher. The Hangzhou municipal Party committee and municipal government issued a number of policies on strict prevention and control of epidemic prevention to help enterprises resume work and resume production in February 9th. In February 16th, the municipal Party committee and municipal government jointly issued some opinions on promoting enterprises to resume work and resume production in February 16th. Taizhou, Jinhua and Yiwu also have preferential policies for reworkers. This week, Hangzhou, Nanjing and other places also give priority to opening up outdoor parks and tourist attractions. While grasping epidemic prevention and control, they are committed to restoring production and daily life of residents. Under such circumstances, the pace of resuming work next week is expected to be greatly accelerated.

In addition, the control and development of the epidemic is still better than expected. If there is no new case for 14 consecutive days, it can be judged to be an end to the epidemic. In addition to Hubei Province, new cases in other parts of the country continue to decline. In addition to the "prison" episode of infection that was concentrated on the 21 day, Shang Qie thought that the gathering incident would not affect the number of social contagion. Many regions had begun to appear "zero added", and the number of new infections in most areas also dropped to single digits. After a long period of "isolation" and "home ownership", we believe that the demand for terminal retail may usher in an explosive growth for some time after the end of the epidemic.

Polyester price decline is not as pessimistic as expected.

From the current start data, the start of the terminal has not seen substantial improvement in the past week, and the weaving industry load is still below 10%, which directly leads to a heavy storage of the whole industrial chain, which has also become the main reason why the market generally sees empty polyester filament. But Xiaobian thinks polyester filament prices have room to fall, but they need not be too pessimistic. On the contrary, if there is more than expected positive or positive information, such as the acceleration of terminal recovery, the rise of crude oil prices, the premature ending of the epidemic, etc., the acceleration of price stabilization should be great. However, high inventory is an indisputable fact, and the supply and demand of polyester filament in a short time will not be substantially gone even if it is improved.

1, before the Spring Festival, raw material inventory of textile mills remains low.

Before the Spring Festival, the raw materials inventory of the textile mills invariably kept low. According to the feedback from enterprises in Shandong, Henan and Tianjin, the raw materials inventory of general large enterprises is about 30 days, while the small and medium-sized enterprises are maintained for 15-20 days, with only 10 Yu Tian alone. It was thought that there was no need to worry about the supply of raw materials after the Spring Festival. An outbreak disrupted the original deployment of all enterprises.

On the 20 day, the head of a textile enterprise in Dezhou, Shandong, said that the plant intends to fully resume production in late February. What worries most is the "break down" of raw materials. At present, logistics is not smooth everywhere, and when resources are purchased to the factory, it is not yet clear. Some companies that have already resumed production are scramble to solve the problem of raw materials.

Many bosses think that it is good to promote enterprises in a phased and batch way to return to work and rebirth in an orderly way. However, this also brings the problem of incomplete industrial chain and poor convergence between upstream and downstream. Enterprises hope to solve this problem as soon as possible.

2, polyester start-up load will not rebound rapidly in the near future.

The stock of polyester is likely to reach its highest point last week. With the pace of terminal resumption this week, the turning point of polyester can come. In late February, polyester stocks were generally higher, and the polyester start-up load was around 63%. Under the pressure of stocking, the start-up load of polyester factories would not rise rapidly, and at present, 94% of the enterprises whose polyesters were shutting down, 94% of the capacity restart time was in the undetermined stage. This part of the production capacity is expected to recover gradually after the easing of polyester stock pressure. It is speculated that the polyester load can be started in late February. It can be around 65%-70%.

On the one hand, it is the mood of enterprises to rush back to work. On the other hand, it is a real difficulty. Where will the enterprises go? At present, there is only waiting. One is waiting for the overall victory of the epidemic prevention and control; the two is waiting for the industrial chain to recover as soon as possible, and enterprises can produce normally.

Another thing to say is that the difficulty is temporary, and it will be a sunny day after the rain.