The Net Profit Of Animal Husbandry Stock Is Ten Times Stronger Than That Of The Seller. The Seller'S "Research Report Competition" Has The Highest 40 Billion Investment Targets.

By the end of 27, the total market value of 002714.SZ was 261 billion 500 million yuan, and the total market value of the other aquaculture leader's 300498.SZ shares was 185 billion 100 million yuan.

The comparison of the two companies' market capitalization has always been a hot topic for investors in the field. In recent years, with the disclosure of relevant financial data, the resulting controversy has come to an end.

On the evening of February 26th, Mu yuan shares issued annual reports. The current company realized net profit of 6 billion 114 million yuan to the parent company, an increase of 1075.37% over the same period last year. Wen's shares issued earlier results showed that the net profit growth in 2019 was 251.38%.

The reason is that the share of pig breeding business revenue of Mu yuan shares is more than 97%, and the highly concentrated business income contributes a lot to the company's performance elasticity.

Wen's stock also had nearly 4 of its revenue in 2019, plus the profit base of 2018 has reached 3 billion 950 million yuan, so the profit growth is not as obvious as that of the stock.

On the basis of the fact that hog prices continued to remain high in 2020, and the planned sales volume of the shares of the original stock was nearly doubled, the seller organizations also boldly shouted out the forecast value of the company's net profit of 30 billion yuan in the whole year, and China Merchants Securities gave a 42 billion 900 million yuan annual profit forecast, almost catching up with Moutai (600519.SH) in Guizhou.

Single quarter net profit to 4 billion 700 million

The investors who stick to the fundamentals are accustomed to anticipate the performance of the listed companies through the industry, and revise the earnings forecasts and valuations after removing the contingency factors such as "mention" in the periodic reports. This is also one of the methods adopted by the current institutional investors.

This newspaper reported in January this year that the Wind seller's consistent profit forecast result is that the annual profit of Mu yuan shares is 4 billion 980 million yuan in 2019, equivalent to 3 billion 590 million yuan in the four quarter.

And Mu yuan shares annual report shows that the company's net profit of 6 billion 114 million yuan in 2019, the fourth quarter net profit of 4 billion 727 million yuan in a single quarter, the scale is higher than the previous institutional expectations.

It can be seen that the annual profit of Mu yuan shares is concentrated in the fourth quarter.

"In the first quarter, the whole industry was affected by the African swine fever epidemic, and the selling price of live pigs showed an extremely low slump. In the second quarter, the market supply and demand situation changed and the hog prices began to recover. In the third quarter, the gap between supply and demand increased further, and the price of live pigs accelerated. In the fourth quarter, pig prices fell after a record high, but they still remained. High position. " Mu yuan shares pointed out.

Reflecting the profit level, it was a loss of 557 million yuan in the first quarter of 2019. In the two quarter, it turned flat into a profit of 407 million yuan, and the three and fourth quarter continued to rise to 1 billion 604 million yuan and 4 billion 882 million yuan.

The above trend is consistent with the industry. Ministry of agriculture and rural data show that in 2019, the average selling price of live pigs fluctuated from 13 yuan to 35 yuan per kilogram, and began to break 15 yuan / kg in June of the same year.

According to the research results of Zhuo Chuang, the average cost of domestic pig industry in 2019 was around 15 yuan / kg, which was slightly higher than the 13 yuan level disclosed by some listed companies. After the above breakeven point, the two quarter profit of animal husbandry stock was corrected.

The change of profit margin is more direct. In 2019, the gross profit margin of hog business increased by 27.22 percentage points to 37.05% in 2019, which was also affected by the overall data in the first half of the year.

According to the second half year's data, the net profit rate of the stock has exceeded 50%. In the fourth quarter of 2019, the company's revenue was 8 billion 488 million yuan, and its net profit was 4 billion 882 million yuan.

In contrast, Wen's share of pork sales in 2019 was 39 billion 545 million yuan, which also enjoyed the increase in pork prices, but the company also had another 25 billion 892 million yuan in sales revenue of broilers. Its average selling price increased by 9.93% over the same period last year, far below the 46.57% increase in porcine products. Therefore, the elasticity of performance is not as good as that of stock, and the trend of the two tier market is much weaker. According to statistics, as of 27 days, the stock rose 33.57% in the year, ranking first in the pig industry, while in the same period Wen's share rose by 3.72%, a difference of nearly ten times.

Seller "cake" 40 billion?

After the above expected annual report was released, the original performance forecast value obviously needs to be revised again.

The results of Wind conformance prediction of different institutions have also raised the net profit of Mu yuan's stock in 2020 to 31 billion 709 million yuan, equivalent to 5 times that of 2019.

Among them, the 29 billion 70 million yuan annual profit expected value of livelihood securities in Jay is already relatively "rational".

China Merchants Securities agricultural Lei Yi and Chen Han team are the most radical. The expected profit of Mu yuan shares is up to 42 billion 900 million yuan. In addition, the forecast value of Fangsheng securities Cheng Yi (38 billion 890 million yuan) and Zhongtai securities Diao Kaifeng (40 billion 439 million yuan) is also about 40 billion yuan.

You know, the profit forecast of Everbright Bank is only 37 billion 350 million yuan in 2019, and the net profit of Guizhou Moutai in the first three quarters of 2019 is only 30 billion 460 million yuan.

For the profit of 40 billion yuan, Qin Yinglin, chairman of the stock company, is afraid to think of himself. After all, there are too many macro policy and medium industry variables.

Even according to the 29 billion expected value of Jay's conversion, it is also required that the profit of Mu yuan should reach 7 billion 200 million yuan this year. The fourth quarter of 2019 is still less than 4 billion 727 million yuan. The average selling price of live pigs in the first quarter of this year may not exceed the fourth quarter of last year.

What gives the seller's organization such strong confidence?

"In 2020, the company planned to slaughter 17 million 500 thousand to 20 million pigs." The stock is mentioned in the annual report.

The sales volume is nearly double that of the 10 million 253 thousand and 300 in 2019, and most of the sellers who called out 40 billion yuan profit were "calculated" according to the sales ceiling of 20 million.

Excluding the promotion factor of sales volume, the change of hog price level plays a more decisive role.

Before the spread of the new crown epidemic, Zhuo Chuang, according to the results of the 2019 production resumption node and the porting period of commercial pigs, believes that domestic pigs will be concentrated in July and August this year, so prices will not be significantly reduced.

The January sales figures disclosed by Wen's shares also show that the price of live pigs is still at a high level of more than 30 yuan. In January this year, the average selling price of Wen's stock was 36.62 yuan / kg, up 6.70% compared to December 2019.

On the contrary, although the sales figures of Mu yuan share were not released in January, the price trend will be consistent with Winchester shares.

From the historical point of view, since 2015, the January sales figures of Mu yuan shares were merged with the February sales figures, mostly around March 6th of that year.

As to whether the sales volume will be affected by the epidemic this year, the company responded to reporters earlier: "the production of the company is closed, so long as we guarantee the feed and transportation links, we will not have a big impact". However, just as basic investors' investment habits are, they will eventually have to wait until the regular reports are released.

In addition, the quarterly disclosure of the stock in the future is also worth noting. If the sales volume and the average price ratio have not been significantly improved, the profit expected by the sellers will be hard to come up with.

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