Tourism "Epidemic Prevention" Battle: Looking Forward To "Retaliatory" Rebound

"Please register information and cooperate with your body temperature." Wearing a mask, Gu Ming, who looks "armed", stands at the door that opens a door to greet every customer who enters the shop. Since the resumption of business, in order to cope with the management requirements of Nanjing Confucius Temple scenic area, Gu Ming's largest fashion department store in this scenic spot has allocated the "special" task to him. However, Gu Ming said that the task is not heavy. "People haven't had much traffic in a few days."

Nanjing Confucius Temple scenic area is a famous open 5A tourist scenic spot in China. More than a month ago, when the new crown pneumonia epidemic had not yet spread, the thirty-fourth China Qinhuai Lantern Festival was officially lit in the scenic spot, and it poured into nearly 100 thousand people on the same day.

After the impact of the epidemic, all activities were suspended, even if the reopened Confucius Temple scenic spot was "badly damaged." Since opening up in February 19th, few people have become the norm of this popular attraction. After visiting the business reporter in twenty-first Century, we found that in addition to the relatively closed space, there were not many shops open on both sides of the pedestrian street, mainly along street snacks, tourist specialties and department stores.

With the mitigation of the epidemic, the domestic tourism industry has been restarted. The long overdue tourist "barrier lake" began to "relieve pressure" after the opening of scenic spots. Beijing Xiangshan, Hangzhou West Lake and Jiangxi Wugong Mountain all had their first day of opening. However, there seems to be a small number of relatively cold spots such as Confucius temple. For example, after opening Mount Huangshan, there will be a "exclusive" situation, which indicates that the revival of tourism is not overnight.

A battle of "epidemic prevention" in tourism is still in progress.

Sudden stop

"New website, new cooperation and team expansion, we are all looking forward to it, and even voluntarily give up the Spring Festival holiday travel plan and prepare to return to work in January 29th." In the eyes of TravelRight founder and CEO sun sun, it was a happy February. But the spread of the epidemic has delayed the original plan.

In 2018, Sun Sun and her partners set up TravelRight to become the first innovative company to provide flight delay claims services in China. In recent years, the explosive growth of Chinese tourists in Europe, and the fact that a large number of flights have been delayed for 30 minutes or cancelled in the world, has made TravelRight's prospects very promising.

Sun Sun told the twenty-first Century business news reporter that TravelRight's services were favored by the domestic travel booking platform. Following the cooperation with the same tours and flight housekeepers in 2019, Ctrip will become a TravelRight claims service partner this year. However, affected by the epidemic, the major travel booking platforms not only drop sharply in the Spring Festival, but also face a large number of cancellations. "The large travel booking platform is working hard to deal with the refund, and all travel agencies will be closed until March." Sun Sun said.

More than a month ago, the domestic tourism industry pressed the pause button.

In January 24th, the Ministry of culture and tourism issued an urgent notice requiring the national travel agencies and online travel enterprises to suspend business team travel and "ticket + Hotel" tourism products. Tourism has almost stopped. Subsequently, a wave of consumer focused refunds rushed to the major tourism companies.

In twenty-first Century, the economic report reporters learned from the major OTA platforms that the "Spring Festival stalls", which were originally made by the major tourism enterprises, were turned into "spring robbery" due to the centralized withdrawal of large orders. "When the Chinese New Year is in season, it will catch up with the huge amount of unsubscribe. The refund of the resource side may take 1 to 3 months to get the money back, but the majority of the consumers demand a refund of the 10 working days, so we need a common advance." Ctrip responsible person told the twenty-first Century economic report reporter that since the outbreak of the epidemic so far, the company has already completed more than 90% of the orders of customers, and has suffered huge losses.

Another OTA head enterprise is facing the same pressure. The relevant person in charge of the company told the twenty-first Century economic news reporter: "the epidemic has brought a large number of orders to unsubscribe, the way cattle retreat and consultation showed a continuous explosive growth, customer service 24 hours online to do a good job of passengers' retirement protection, telephone answering volume increased by more than 10 times."

At the same time, because of its closed door tourism projects, listed tourism enterprises complain incessantly. In twenty-first Century, the economic report combing reporters found that 11 A share listed tourism enterprises such as Jiuhua 603199.SH and Songcheng Performing Arts (300144.SZ) announced that the project was suspended, and that they were shut down in from January 24th to 27th. "It will adversely affect the company's net profit this year" and "the time and extent of its impact can not be accurately predicted". The business performance of listed tourism enterprises in the first quarter of this year was undoubtedly affected.

Unable to resume work and resume production, and also need to bear the pressure of personnel, rent, operation and other various costs. When the industry needs to stagnate, the tourism enterprises can not balance their incomes and costs, and they also "bleed".

According to the China Tourism Research Institute, the domestic tourism industry will be hit hard by the epidemic in the first quarter, and the number of domestic tourists and tourism revenue will increase by 56% and 69% respectively. The number of domestic tourists and tourist income is expected to decrease by 932 million passengers and 1 trillion and 180 billion yuan respectively.

Emergency rescue

The tourism industry has entered the "quick freeze" period, and a rescue operation is being staged urgently.

"Today's Songcheng is no longer the Songcheng when it was SARS seventeen years ago. Now we have abundant free cash flow, strong brand image and first-class creative management talents in the industry. We are confident that we can provide more high-quality works for tourists and create sustained value returns for shareholders and investors." In February 2nd, an open letter to all investors in Songcheng performing arts management was circulated in the industry. The management of the company lamented the financial impact of the epidemic on the first quarter of Songcheng's performance, and did not forget to infuse investors with strong intentions: the company has already made adequate preparations for the rebound after the outbreak, and has transformed and upgraded the performing arts platform in the continuous launch of new projects.

A tourism analyst told the twenty-first Century business news reporter that the head tourism enterprises can cope with the epidemic situation by their own scale and capital advantages, but small and medium-sized tourism enterprises are facing the test of survival and death. However, China's tourism industry, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, has a low ability to resist risks, and urgently needs support from external forces such as policy.

In twenty-first Century, according to the statistics of the economic report reporters, since the outbreak of the epidemic, the Ministry of culture and tourism and more than 20 provinces and municipalities have launched the supporting policy successively, involving five aspects, such as financial support, financial policies, tax relief, cost reduction, and government services, etc., to help tourism enterprises survive the cold winter. Among them, the return of travel security has attracted much attention.

In February 5th, the general office of the Ministry of culture and tourism issued a circular that some travel service quality margins will be temporarily suspended to support travel agencies to cope with operational difficulties. The notice said that the deposit was temporarily suspended for all travel agencies in the country, which had paid the deposit in accordance with the law and received the travel agency business license. The retirement standard was 80% of the current payment.

Statistics show that as of February 25th, 3.52 travel agencies across the country had applied for temporary withdrawal, accounting for 90% of the total number of travel agencies, and the total amount of refund should be 8 billion yuan. According to Liu Kehzi, director of the market management division of the Ministry of culture and tourism, in February 26th, the security deposit has been refunded at 3 billion 462 million yuan. Judging from the feedback, the policy of temporary withdrawal has effectively relieved the pressure of the cash flow of enterprises.

The major OTA companies that are deeply bound with the large and medium sized tourism suppliers have also experienced an unusually intense February. Take Ctrip as an example, according to the results of tourism platform announced by the company last year, there are more than 25000 travel agencies on the supply side of Ctrip platform, and the proportion of small and medium-sized suppliers exceeds 80%.

Ctrip responsible person told the twenty-first Century economic report reporter, from January 21st to February 21st, Ctrip experienced a complete "epidemic prevention cycle." In this cycle, the company has not only completed a large number of orders, but also an important task is to support suppliers. "We launched the 200 million yuan major disaster guarantee fund to protect users, 1 billion yuan partner support fund, and 10 billion yuan of small and micro loans. While protecting the interests of users, we vigorously support suppliers and partners to tide over difficulties." The person in charge pointed out.

Another self rescue operation was also opened in the hotel industry. The decline of tourism demand has led to the "shock" of the domestic hotel industry.

In recent years, the domestic hotel group has transformed from hotel operation to brand management and output. Behind this is the expansion mode of the domestic hotel group's continuous implementation. Financial data show that the franchisee has become the core revenue source of all major local hotel groups. Take Jinjiang International Group, Hua Ju group and first brigade hotel group as the three major domestic hotel groups as an example, its affiliate business accounts for 80% of the total performance of each hotel group. According to the research report released by Guosheng securities, in 2019, the net profit of Jinjiang International Group, Hua Hua group and first brigade hotel group accounted for about 94%, 73% and 93% respectively.

Affected by this, "stabilizing franchisees" has become a major focus of the implementation of self-help by major local hotel groups. Hua Hua group told reporters on twenty-first Century economic report that relying on the advantages of Dalian lock, China has issued a series of cost reduction policies and financial support programs for Hubei province's closed city area, nationwide requisitioned hotels and all the franchised stores nationwide.

"Rebound" controversy

The scenic spots, which are silent for a long time, are being awakened by popularity, and they are opening gates for the long overdue tourism "barrier lake". As of February 28th, more than 450 famous scenic spots have been reopened nationwide, and the overall opening rate of scenic spots in China has exceeded 40%.

In February 25th, the Ministry of culture and Tourism Resources Development Division issued the guide to the prevention and control measures for the rehabilitation of tourist attractions, pointing out that the opening of scenic spots must adhere to the principle of zoning and classification and do not engage in "one size fits all", which means that the domestic tourism industry will issue a restart signal.

But when the inflection point comes, no one can accurately judge. On the one hand, the historical experience and the slow down of domestic epidemic situation have revival expectations for tourism practitioners. However, whether the epidemic situation has been repeated or deteriorated abroad has made practitioners unoptimistic. With the combination of hope and uneasiness, tourism takes on a heavy load.

A source of confidence for practitioners comes from the demonstration of historical data. After the SARS epidemic seventeen years ago, the domestic tourism industry appeared a "retaliatory" rebound.

Songcheng Performing Arts in "to all investors" said, "according to the experience of the Songcheng scenic area in 2003, the year after SARS welcomed tourists' explosive growth and high-speed rebound."

002707.SZ also said, "because of the experience of fighting SARS, strict and effective prevention and control measures have been taken against the epidemic countries. We firmly believe that the impact of this epidemic on the tourism industry will be shorter than that of" SARS ". It is expected that the company's business will gradually stabilize in the two quarter. The three quarter will be the summer peak season. The three quarter or the four quarter will usher in the full release and rebound of business demand.

In 2003, affected by the SARS epidemic, the three major markets of inbound tourism, outbound tourism and domestic tourism were severely hit in April and June. Among them, inbound tourism and domestic tourism appeared in 2003 for the first time in ten years. After the SARS epidemic, the domestic tourism market blowout.

Ctrip big data show that demand for civil aviation and hotel accommodation has recovered rapidly after the outbreak of SARS.

Civil aviation, in the second quarter of 2003, the volume of Ctrip ticket booking decreased by 33.39% compared with the same period last year. In July, the volume of orders for Ctrip tickets increased by 200% over the same period last year, a 82% increase over June. The "retaliatory" rebound is more evident in the golden tourism period after the SARS epidemic. In 2003's "eleven" golden week, the volume of airline ticket orders on the Ctrip platform increased by 200% over the same period, and the air ticket orders increased by 201% over the Spring Festival in 2004.

Hotel accommodation, the second quarter of 2003, Ctrip hotel booking volume decreased by 25.08% over the same period. In June, the hotel accommodation industry began to recover. In July, the occupancy rate of Ctrip hotels had been restored to 70% in the same period last year, and the long tail continued to the following year.

At the same time, the forecast time for epidemic control is becoming clearer, so that practitioners can see the end of "cold winter".

In February 27th, Zhong Nanshan said at the news briefing on epidemic prevention and control of Guangzhou Medical University. "According to our team's influence factors on the basis of traditional models (national intervention and the return peak after the Spring Festival), the peak should be close to the end of February in the middle of 2. We are confident that basic control will take place at the end of April.

If the epidemic is controlled at the end of April, the first golden week of May Day is the first to benefit.

According to the search information of major platforms such as Ctrip, flying pigs and so on, the search volume of platform tickets and hotels is rising. In terms of Ctrip, the air ticket search volume of the May 1 holiday is already higher than that of last year. The number of hotel searches increased by 25% over the same period last year. The search volume of Sanya and Shanghai Hotel has been increased. The search volume of air tickets and train tickets for the May 1 holiday has increased by 40% compared with last week, and the volume of hotel search has increased by 35%.

However, the risk of repeated outbreak makes the scenic area open, but the overall tourism function has not been restored.

In the Nanjing Confucius Temple scenic spot, twenty-first Century economic report reporter statistics found that the scenic Street Pedestrian shops operating rate is about 15%. The important scenic spots in restaurants and other scenic spots were not recovered due to the prevention of aggregation during the epidemic. "We come here mainly by walking around, turning around, and scattering our hearts." Said a tourist.

Moreover, the spread of outbreaks has made it difficult for the tourism industry to rebound in a short period of time.

Recently, the number of new crown pneumonia patients in the world continues to rise. Taking Japan and South Korea as an example, as of 9 a.m. on February 28th, South Korea had more than 2000 confirmed diagnoses, and Japan had more than 900 confirmed cases.

"The risk of the epidemic is still objective. It may be slightly better at home, but there has been a spread abroad." Liu Simin, a well-known tourism expert and vice president of the China future research association Tourism Branch, said in an interview with the twenty-first Century economic report that it is too early to predict the time for the recovery of the tourism industry. No one can control the uncertainty of the epidemic.

But Liu Simin also pointed out that economic recovery and epidemic prevention and control is a contradiction at present, but both hands must be grasps. On the one hand, scenic spots and tourists should take a cautious attitude and open the scenic spots according to local conditions according to the development of local epidemic situation. On the other hand, the policy needs to give clear expectations to the tourism practitioners, for example, we can draw up two golden week tourism in May and August, while giving the tourists the confidence to release while the demand is released.

"The demand for tourism can not be stored, and it needs to be released in time after the outbreak, so that we can save the tourism industry which has been badly hit and threatened." Liu Simin said.

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