Negative Factor Superimposed Polyester Filament Price Pressure Drop

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the market price of polyester filament in China has declined in February 28th. Most mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces have cut down 100-200 yuan / ton. At present, polyester POY (150D/48F) reported 6750-7000 yuan / ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elastic) reported 8450-8850 yuan / ton, polyester FDY (150D/96F) reported 7100-7600 yuan / ton. By the end of February, the average daily production and sales of PET filament were still around 20%-30%, and the market was in a mild state. The polyester filament price had lost support and was going downwards, due to the superposition of raw materials, slow recovery of demand and continuous rise in inventory.

　　 Polyester filament market average price rise and fall, unit: yuan / ton

The market worries were rekindled, the international crude oil gravity center moved down sharply, and the cost end of polyester filament lost support. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of domestic PTA spot market plummeted in February 28th, and the average price of the market was 4245 yuan / ton, down 3.09% from the previous trading day, down 33.62% from the same period last year. Futures market main futures (2005) closed at 4252, down 96 from the previous trading day, or 2.21%. On the device side, although the Sichuan Shengda 1 million tons / year and Hon Bang Petrochemical 2 million 200 thousand tons / year PTA device failed to restart according to the plan in the end of 2, however, the load of the 4 phase 2 million 500 thousand tons / year PTA plant increased from 50% to 90% in the Hengli 4 phase, and the 4 million 500 thousand kt / PTA start-up load in Fuhai was increased from 60% to about 80%. PTA social inventory has accumulated at a high level, breaking through 3 million tons in the near future, PTA processing fees will be further compressed, and it is difficult to see inflection points in the short term.

The downstream textile enterprises plan to resume work after mid February, but are limited by the escalation of protection measures by the local governments and the traffic control and quarantine period of workers returning to other places. Up to now, the comprehensive opening rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is only 38%. In addition, especially small businesses face tight cash flow, shortage of epidemic protection supplies and huge employment pressure, and business risks increase. At the same time, there are more logistics restrictions and scale sales have not yet started. Therefore, prudent demand for raw material procurement and overall demand strength are still weak. It is still expected that the final textile market will recover completely.

Xia Ting, a business analyst, believes that in the process of crude oil dropping, the high inventory pressure of PTA supply and demand is difficult to alleviate in the short term, so the cost side will remain weak. Downstream textile enterprises are faced with problems such as workers in place, shortage of funds, logistics restrictions and so on. The progress of recovery is relatively slow, but fortunately, measures are being put forward to promote enterprises to actively resume work. It is expected that demand will improve significantly in March, and the price of polyester filament will also be favorable.