During The Year, Bond Default Exceeded 40 Billion, Bond Renewal And OTC Payment.

Since February, credit debt risk events are again concentrated.

Wind data show that since 2020, 29 bonds have been defaulted as of March 3rd, and the scale has exceeded 40 billion yuan. The risk events since February are particularly concentrated, including the early expiration of many bonds due to the bankruptcy reorganization of well-known school enterprise Founder group, and the Kangmei pharmaceutical company, the first breach of contract.

Just this week, Zhongcheng construction group, CITIC Guoan group and Beijing Sander Environmental Engineering Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as the "Sander project") also announced the payment risks of related bonds.

In fact, the impact of the epidemic on the economy has been reflected in the current market. Although many policies have provided support, however, whether the market credit risk will continue to enlarge in the case of the impact of the epidemic has not yet been completely eliminated, is the focus of attention of all parties.

For example, in the case of Sander project, the issuer said that due to the suspension of operation in Hubei and several affected areas, the daily operation was greatly affected, resulting in problems such as tight liquidity.

"It is expected that monetary and fiscal policies will maintain a relaxed hedge against the epidemic. The systemic credit risk of the whole society is relatively controllable, but we need to guard against the tail individual risks in sensitive industries and heavily hit areas, and pay attention to the capital chain situation of the issuers in maintaining basic expenditures in the case of stagnation of operations." Shanghai a public fund fixed income director said.

The reorganization of Founder group is undoubtedly the focus of the market since February. -IC photo-

Risk events again dense

The reorganization of well-known school enterprise Founder group is undoubtedly the focus of the market since February.

In March 3rd, the economic report reporters in twenty-first Century were exclusively informed that on the same morning, the founder group held a meeting of bondholders to deliberate on four bills and related issues, including authorizing trustee to manage the bankruptcy proceedings of ginseng and issuers, authorizing trustee to declare creditor's rights, compressing the holders' meeting agenda, and modifying the rules of holders' meetings.

Prior to that, Fang Zheng group announced that it received the "civil ruling" and the "decision" delivered by the first intermediate people's Court of Beijing in February 19th. The court ruled that it accepted the application made by the Bank of Beijing to reorganize the founder group, designated the founder group liquidation group as the founder group manager, and the founder group liquidation group was composed of the people's Bank of China, the Ministry of education, the relevant financial supervision institutions and Beijing's functional departments and so on.

As a result, Founder Group entered the stage of reorganization. According to the announcement of the first intermediate people's Court of Beijing in February 21st, the creditors of Founder group should declare their claims to the managers before April 21st.

The founder's weighing is still in the stage of debt information collection and integration, and there is not much more to tell about the follow-up plan and direction. At present, the clear point of time is the time point of declaration of creditor's rights. After the declaration of creditor's rights, it continues to advance according to the provisions of laws and regulations. As for the follow-up, there is no definite timetable and definite plan. In March 3rd, a participant told the business reporter in twenty-first Century.

The source said, "for more concerned about the reorganization and introduction of war and other issues, founder side said that there is no clear restructuring plan, so the strategic investors have not been clear."

According to Wind data, a total of 24 bonds of the founder group have been substantially defaulted, with the current balance totaling 36 billion 540 million yuan.

It is worth noting that in the current market, there are also many ways for issuers to seek risk mitigation, such as rollover and overdue payment.

In February 25th, the Sander project announced the extension of the "19 Sander project SCP001" principal, changing the bond payment date from February 25, 2020 to November 20, 2020, while changing the interest rate during the extension period to 7%.

Subsequently, Sander Engineering said it plans to issue a one-year debt financing tool to replace its indefinite remaining debt, "17 Sander project MTN001", which is also the first single pilot project in the inter-bank market bond swap business.

For example, in the recent "18 new finance MTN001", the new group has chosen to negotiate with the holder to reduce interest and ease the cash pressure through OTC payment.

"Now there are more and more bonds that are negotiated privately through negotiation in the form of extension and over-the-spot payment, which are more contradictory for holders. On the one hand, they do not want the company to default and lead to further financing difficulties, which makes it more difficult to repay debts. On the other hand, they can only accept the trend of disposal in the former market, giving the issuer an opportunity and perhaps hope." The manager of a private equity fund in Beijing told the twenty-first Century business reporter.

Vigilance has not changed.

As the first attempt by the interbank market to replace bonds, the relevant policies to promote enterprise risk mitigation and disposal and support enterprise financing are also being pushed forward. However, for the future market, we need to guard against market differentiation.

From the data point of view, the credit spreads of all levels of industrial debt in February are down, but there are still divisions within them. The spread of medicine, biology, real estate and chemical industry is significantly downward. Mining, iron and steel, nonferrous metals, transportation and public utilities also have a significant downward trend.

Tianfeng Securities pointed out that although the "two level" market under the "asset shortage" has eased the credit stratification emotion in the nature of enterprises, credit rating and varieties, this kind of mitigation tends to be a short-term phenomenon, and still needs to be alert to tail risks.

"The allocation of credit debt in the current market has spread from the initial short term medium rating credit debt to the 5 year intermediate level credit debt. The credit spreads converged faster, but the spread of the low class credit bonds remained high, indicating that the market is still more vigilant against the credit sinking. In general, the middle and high level credit debt is more dominant." Director of fixed income of a large public fund in Southern China told the twenty-first Century business reporter.

From the perspective of institutional configuration, the prevention and control of credit risks is still the focus.

"The yield of pre credit bonds has fallen sharply and sharply, and the value of coupons is very low at present. However, due to the uncertainty of the spread of the epidemic in the global economy, there is a poor expectation of economic growth, and there is still room for reducing the term spreads. The risk of catching up comes mainly from policy hedging and medium-term economic stabilization. Haitong Fund believes.

"The impact of the epidemic is more on small and medium-sized enterprises and private enterprises. For small and medium-sized enterprises and private enterprises, we have been paying attention to evasion. However, the most affected restaurants, service consumers and related industries are less likely to issue bonds in bonds, so the risk is more controllable. Zou Weina, a mixed fund manager of one year holding period, told the twenty-first Century business reporter.

Bo, a manager of the credit bond fund, focused on the opportunity of city investment bonds. In its view, under the influence of the epidemic, the economy is facing downward pressure in the short term, but based on the fundamentals, China's economy will not have a big impact. For credit debt, we are optimistic about the investment opportunities of urban debt investment in the future key urban agglomerations.

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