The "Corrugated Noodles" Of The New Crown Epidemic: After The Price Increases, 30% Of The Hong Kong Stocks Are Ahead Of The A Shares.

Paper industry, especially the packaging consumables industry, has gathered a large number of small and medium-sized private enterprises.

According to the twenty-first Century economic report reporter survey, under the impact of the epidemic, many enterprises are facing the situation of rising costs.

A packaging and consumables supplier in Southwest China has recently planned to adjust its price. The reason is that the price of upstream waste paper and corrugated paper has increased significantly after the holiday. With the increase of transportation and labor costs, the overall cost of the company has increased by more than 30%.

According to data provided by March 5th, the price of corrugated paper is about 3300 yuan / ton in early February, and the market quotation has risen from 3800 yuan to 4200 yuan so far, and the overall increase has also reached 30%.

"In the final analysis, it is the derivative effect of the epidemic, which leads to insufficient inventory of raw materials in the upper reaches of the paper mill, and it is difficult to restore the operation rate quickly, as well as the restriction of logistics and transportation." Liu Cheng, an analyst with information industry, told reporters 5 days ago.

In the capital market, A share investors who had been influenced by the price increase in 2016 have not yet responded. The main production enterprise of corrugated paper, 600567.SH, has only increased by 8.95% after the holiday. In the same period, two paper giants such as Nine Dragons Paper (2689.HK) and Li Wen paper (2314.HK) in the Hong Kong stock market rose 21.29% and 11.42% respectively.

Short term mismatch between supply and demand

The lifting of the price of corrugated paper and packaging materials is actually a phased supply and demand mismatch caused by the epidemic.

For example, before the Spring Festival, raw materials will be stored.

But the industry would not have thought that the spread of the epidemic was so large that it was not until the commencement of the festival that the standing stock was sufficient to support large-scale construction.

"Shan Ying paper started at a rate of only 25%, only recently increased to 70%. Another corrugated cardboard production enterprise, Rongcheng paper industry, has three companies in China, plus the Hubei production base. At present, the overall operating rate is only about 30%." Liu Cheng said.

This eagle eagle paper industry in March 5th verified the above judgment, "at the end of February, the operating rate increased to 70%, the Hubei area production line due to the new commissioning in 2019, is still in the climbing stage of productivity, so its shutdown has a smaller impact on the whole company."

According to her introduction, Hubei requires enterprises to start work in principle in March 10th, but it is necessary to wait for local government's notice when they can resume their work.

Besides the insufficient operation rate of upstream paper mills, logistics transportation has also been affected.

Eagle Eagle paper industry has recently accepted institutional research, it has said, "the company's finished paper inventory is about 20 days, the order is sufficient, restricted by logistics, shipping is limited."

And this restriction is not only in the transportation of products, but also on the raw material level.

A waste paper recycling industry in Chengdu, 5, said that under normal circumstances, according to the calculation of the capacity of 30 tons per vehicle, two to three vehicles can be sent in a week, but affected by the epidemic, not only the freight price is obviously increased, but now only one vehicle can be delivered per week.

And about 70% of the raw materials for corrugated paper are from waste paper, while the recycling nodes of waste paper recycling terminals are much later than the upstream paper mills, and the transportation problems caused by the superposition of logistics constraints have a negative impact on the raw materials supply of upstream paper mills.

A number of supply and demand links directly lead to the rising price of corrugated paper, from waste paper to corrugated paper to carton packaging.

In twenty-first Century, economic news reporters got a quotation information on 5 th, indicating that in mid December 2019, the yellow board grade a acquisition price was 2050 yuan / ton, and rose to 2190 yuan / ton in late February 2020. In March 1st, the purchase price has risen to 2340 yuan / ton.

"After the festival, the overall increase of corrugated paper is around 30%, and the cumulative increase of 700 yuan per ton, such as the Nine Dragons Paper, has increased by more than 1000 yuan in small factories." Liu Cheng said.

Leading shares of Hong Kong stock paper industry

As far as the industry is concerned, the subsequent development of the epidemic has undoubtedly become the biggest variable factor. For example, the terminal carton, the former supplier said, "at present, many peers are reluctant to start work. On the one hand, the cost increases obviously. On the other hand, if employees are infected, they may be faced with the risk of whole plant isolation."

All links in the industrial chain have not yet returned to normal, which may lead to further increase in the price of raw materials and raw materials.

"The industry as a whole is not yet fully restored. Compared with the upgrading capacity of the upstream capacity, the demand for space is larger in the short term, so the price is still high." Liu Cheng thinks. Under the above background, the Hong Kong paper giant has taken the lead in rising. From February 3rd to March 5th, the Nine Dragons Paper and the Wen Wen paper industry rose 21.29% and 11.42% respectively.

In contrast, A shares rose by only 1.62% during the 000488.SZ share market.

The key lies in the above two Hong Kong stock companies and Shan Ying paper industry as the main corrugated production enterprises in China, such as Shan Ying paper in 2018, "box plate value and products" accounted for 94% of the revenue, and Chenming paper mainly white cardboard, double offset paper and other cultural products.

With the rising price of corrugated paper in the near future, it is expected that thickening the profits of the above main production enterprises will be only a follow-up quarterly report.

In addition, with the recovery of the development of the epidemic situation and the gradual increase of the operating rate of the paper mill, the contradiction between supply and demand of the industry is expected to be significantly relieved.

And according to the prediction of Shan Ying share, "with the gradual control of domestic epidemic situation, the company expects that papermaking capacity will be fully produced in April".

At the outset of the short-term interference factors of the epidemic, the contradiction between the structural surplus of corrugated paper industry is not yet solved, and the products do not have the basis of long-term rise.

In fact, since 2017, 2 million tons to 3 million tons of backward production capacity have been withdrawn from the country every year. The outbreak of this outbreak may accelerate the further clearance of backward production capacity.

According to a research report issued by Morgan Stanley, it is pointed out that the waste paper recycling industry which relies on manpower has been recovering slowly, and the supply of waste paper is in short supply. The operation rate of large paper mills such as nine papers is only about 50%. Many small paper mills are shutting down completely. If leading enterprises fail to raise prices, they will squeeze the profits of other small scale market participants, and eventually lead to more small paper mills, and the industry. Accelerate integration.

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