USDA Report For The Month, Cut Us Output And Final Inventory

By the end of February, the inventory of textile enterprises in the cotton industry was 721 thousand and 800 tons, down 4 thousand and 700 tons from the end of last month. The stock of disposable cotton in textile enterprises was 843 thousand and 300 tons, a decrease of 7 thousand and 900 tons from last month. At present, the yarn stock of textile enterprises is 24.15 days (-0.07 days), and grey cloth inventory days are 29.21 days (-0.24 days). From the data, raw material inventory of textile enterprises has continued to rise slightly, and finished product inventory has continued to decrease slightly, showing that the situation of textile enterprises in February is slightly better than that in January, and the effect of grey cloth reduction and storage is obvious. Yesterday, President Xi Jinping inspected the epidemic prevention and control work in Wuhan, so that the market was optimistic about the progress of domestic epidemic control progress. The financial market risk aversion decreased, crude oil prices rose nearly 8%, A share Jedi counterattack rushed to 3000 points, the domestic Wenhua commodity index opened lower, the Zheng cotton 05 contract rebounded higher, the period price rebounded sharply 275 yuan / ton, and the terminal closed at 12450 yuan / ton. The period price rebounds to the trajectory of the brin channel and the lower trajectory interval. At present, the brin channel keeps running down. MACD green column shrinkage is still below the 0 axis of vulnerable areas, and technical indicators are in a weak position. Positions decreased by 8747 to 404 thousand. Yesterday, the actual turnover of cotton reserves was 5520 tons, with a turnover rate of 36.8%, with an average transaction price of 13144 yuan / ton, and the acquisition of cotton reserves is still in progress. In addition, the purchase of Xinjiang cotton is about to start, and the rebound of Zheng cotton is still low. However, the epidemic makes the new orders for the downstream less and the demand for overseas is also sluggish. According to the latest data of the General Administration of customs, in 2020 1-2 months, China's export of textiles and garments was about 29 billion 835 million US dollars, down 20% compared to the same period last year. At present, we do not have the conditions for unilaterally rising, and we expect to continue low-level shocks in the short term.

[market overview]

Pricing structure and arbitrage analysis

In March 10th, the difference between the current price of zhengmian 2001 contract and the CCI3128B index period was -191/ tons, and the price difference increased by 387 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

As of March 10th closing, Zheng cotton 2005-2009 contract price difference of -465 yuan / ton, the price difference fell 15 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, there is no obvious arbitrage opportunities in the near future.

In March 10th, the price difference between the CCI index and the FC Index index was 198 yuan / ton, the price difference increased by 143 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day; the ZCE2005-ICE1912 contract price difference was 3076 yuan / ton, and the price difference rose 584 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

[warehouse receipt and effective forecast]

As of March 10th, the amount of zhengmian warehouse receipt was 35996 (about 1 million 548 thousand tons), an increase of 234 (10 thousand tons) compared with the previous day, with an effective forecast of 5282 (about 227 thousand tons), a decrease of 458 pieces (about 20 thousand tons) compared with the previous day, and a total of 1 million 775 thousand tons of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts.

[market analysis]

At present, the price of EMOT M in the United States is 74.25 cents / pound, and the price of India S-6 1-1/8 is 68.8 cents / pound. The price of Brazil M to Hong Kong is 72.8 cents / pound, and the total price of cotton to port is lower than that of the United States, but the rest of the market has dropped by 1.5 cents / pound. Due to the US Department of agriculture's March report on supply and demand, the US cotton production and ending inventory in 19/20 were cut down, and the ICE cotton 05 contract fell sharply to 62.91 cents / pound after the sharp fall in the previous day. The final closing rate was 61.39 cents / pound, the average system was in short order, the MACD green column continued to shrink, but it was still in the vulnerable area below the 0 axle, and the technical indicators remained weak. Short term continuation of cross trend, concerned about the late warehouse changes, the recent price interval of 57-63 cents / pound.

By the end of February, the inventory of textile enterprises in the cotton industry was 721 thousand and 800 tons, down 4 thousand and 700 tons from the end of last month. The stock of disposable cotton in textile enterprises was 843 thousand and 300 tons, a decrease of 7 thousand and 900 tons from last month. At present, the yarn stock of textile enterprises is 24.15 days (-0.07 days), and grey cloth inventory days are 29.21 days (-0.24 days). From the data, raw material inventory of textile enterprises has continued to rise slightly, and finished product inventory has continued to decrease slightly, showing that the situation of textile enterprises in February is slightly better than that in January, and the effect of grey cloth reduction and storage is obvious. Yesterday, President Xi Jinping inspected the epidemic prevention and control work in Wuhan, so that the market was optimistic about the progress of domestic epidemic control progress. The financial market risk aversion decreased, crude oil prices rose nearly 8%, A share Jedi counterattack rushed to 3000 points, the domestic Wenhua commodity index opened lower, the Zheng cotton 05 contract rebounded higher, the period price rebounded sharply 275 yuan / ton, and the terminal closed at 12450 yuan / ton. The period price rebounds to the trajectory of the brin channel and the lower trajectory interval. At present, the brin channel keeps running down. MACD green column shrinkage is still below the 0 axis of vulnerable areas, and technical indicators are in a weak position. Positions decreased by 8747 to 404 thousand. Yesterday, the actual turnover of cotton reserves was 5520 tons, with a turnover rate of 36.8%, with an average transaction price of 13144 yuan / ton, and the acquisition of cotton reserves is still in progress. In addition, the purchase of Xinjiang cotton is about to start, and the rebound of Zheng cotton is still low. However, the epidemic makes the new orders for the downstream less and the demand for overseas is also sluggish. According to the latest data of the General Administration of customs, in 2020 1-2 months, China's export of textiles and garments was about 29 billion 835 million US dollars, down 20% compared to the same period last year. At present, we do not have the conditions for unilaterally rising, and we expect to continue low-level shocks in the short term.

[technical analysis]

Yesterday, Zheng cotton 05 contract rebounded higher, the price rebounded sharply 275 yuan / ton, the end of the table closed at 12450 yuan / ton. The period price rebounds to the trajectory of the brin channel and the lower trajectory interval. At present, the brin channel keeps running down. MACD green column shrinkage is still below the 0 axis of vulnerable areas, and technical indicators are in a weak position. The positions were reduced by 8747 to 404 thousand hands. It is expected that short term Zheng cotton will continue to be wide and concussion, pay attention to the changes in late warehouse volume, and the short-term operating range of the 05 contracts is 12100-13000; the 5-9 price difference will be -465 yuan / ton.

[trading proposals]

The short-term shock range of zhengmian 2005 contract has been further widened, and the short-term basis has been strengthened. The current companies suggested that the selling of point price should be accelerated. The upstream cotton enterprises will close their stocks according to the sales progress, and those who have stock pressure can sell the national reserve.