Where Will The Tourism Market Recover After The Outbreak Of The Epidemic?

Another sunny day.

The sky is blue, and the sun is warmly drying. The wind on the face is not sharp. The refreshing and refreshing taste seems to bring some buds.

The weather is so good that people can't help going out for outing.

In March 13th, a number of museums in Shanghai, Jiangsu and Jiangxi announced the resumption of their opening up. With the early resumption of scenic spots, the tourism market, which seemed to have stopped for 50 days, is gradually returning to normal. Everyone is asking, how soon can it be as carefree as before January 20th?

Internal heat and external cooling

According to the data released by the national health and Health Commission, as of 24 March 12th, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps reported that the number of new cases dropped to single figures, indicating that the domestic epidemic alert had been greatly relaxed.

The territory is safe, and the outside world is getting worse. We should know that by March 13th, there were 88 cases of overseas confirmed cases. The pressure of "backward irrigation" is increasing day by day.

This also means that the epidemic situation in foreign countries will not be better for a short time. Moreover, other countries are afraid to open up the epidemic, such as Israel, India and Thailand. Even neighboring Japan has temporarily lost its visa to suppress Chinese entry.

The rate of outbound travel is to be stopped, and the situation of recovery should be changed according to the epidemic situation. People who have been bored for more than 50 days will be looking for new exports, which is undoubtedly a good opportunity for domestic development.

In fact, the domestic tourism market has been increasing over the years. In 2019, the number of domestic tourists was 6 billion 6 million, an increase of 8.4% over the same period last year. Domestic tourism revenue was 5 trillion and 730 billion yuan, an increase of 11.7% over the same period last year. Earlier, a number of governments and agencies have predicted that COVID-19 will cause at least 500 billion yuan loss to China's tourism market, some of which even exceed 1 trillion and 200 billion yuan. It is true that the epidemic will slump the domestic tourism market, but it can also bring new demands, such as transferring some of the demand for outbound travel to China.

Last year, the number of outbound tourists was 155 million. Although the amount of consumption was not officially counted, some agencies gave more than 300 billion dollars of estimated data, and converted to RMB almost 2 trillion yuan. Obviously, the cake was full of mouthful oil.

Refinement of demand

Cakes are delicious, but they are not so easy to eat.

Many demands in outbound travel market are not satisfied with domestic tourism. For example, there are people in the country who meet their friends in Japan every year in winter, one year from place to place, from the south to the north, and to the hot springs with different curative effects in different parts of Japan. Like this highly reclaimed tourism product, there are no competing products in China.

In fact, there are many famous hot springs in China, such as the seven fairy ridge in Baoting, Hainan, such as Yunnan, Tengchong and Taiwan. In fact, high temperature geothermal resources are mainly concentrated in the tropical regions of the Pacific Rim, such as Tibet, Yunnan, Taiwan, Guangdong and Fujian, where many hot springs are exposed. The quality of hot springs in these places is better than that in Japan, but the overall popularity is far less than that. The hot spring facilities, services, characteristics and the whole Hot Spring Township marketing are also far apart.

Despite the popularity of hot spring culture in recent years, there is a great catch up trend. But objectively speaking, some new hot spring resorts prefer to become hot spring water parks, large and large, and many types of spa soup, which are completely different from those felt in Japan. Many tourists prefer Japanese style hot springs to quiet and private ones.

For example, island tours. As we all know, the cost performance of domestic island tour is far less than that of Southeast Asia. In many coastal cities in China, the biggest worry of tourists is not that the price is high, but the experience is not rich enough, and the service is not detailed enough.

Take Sanya as an example, the coastline is first-rate, hotels at all levels are also abundant, and shopping centers are large enough. Is the tourist demand only enough to buy a meal at a hotel?

Apart from motorboats, snorkeling and other recreational projects in Sanya, cheap and inexpensive amusement projects have been in short supply for a long time. In recent years, although many playgrounds and performing arts projects have been added, new experiences such as yachts and yachts have been provided. Generally speaking, the spiritual needs of tourists in Sanya are still seriously insufficient. There are no good museums and galleries. The tour of local cultural projects in Hainan is superficial and difficult to arouse tourists' sympathy. Sanya also lacks linkage with projects in other parts of Hainan to prolong the duration of tourists' stay.

There are the best surfing bases in the sun and Bay in Sanya, which is more than 80 kilometers away from Sanya. The surfing service there is pretty good, but no one has introduced this interesting sport in Sanya, and no one has provided surfing services from the sun to the Moon Bay. This is a very broken service, but the experience of tourism is composed of such a fine service to form a complete satisfaction. Southeast Asia, many small areas, there will be a lot of small tourism companies, specializing in a project. For example, "jungle traversing" in Chiang Mai, Thailand, several companies have launched this project, and hundreds of small travel agencies have brought these companies from the city. No matter where the tourists live in Chiang Mai, there will be a car in the early morning of the second day to pick up every famous tourist, then drive to the mountain to play this project, and send it back to the hotel in the evening.

In fact, China's tourism market is so large that there are many people and diverse needs. If the market supply can be enriched to meet different needs of different people, how can we worry about the lack of tourists? How worried about no profit?

Dai Bin, President of the China Tourism Research Institute, called on tour colleagues to pay attention to the aspirations of tourists on the landscape and satisfy the needs of tourists to share the quality of life. Over the past thirty years, the development of domestic tourism has been so fast that the development has been quite extensive. A large number of demands have not been able to satisfy the needs of people.

In fact, the tourism market does not need too big a strong person, but it needs millions of strong and small people to satisfy people's different needs. Therefore, the tourism market needs to be changed from the perspective of government regulation. Formulate detailed rules, manage by negative list system, do not prohibit the mode and format of trial, try to test water at very low threshold, and win the fittest by market reaction.

Believe in the power of the market.

The southernmost first recovery

If there is a chance to develop domestic tourism this year, who can grasp the greatest fruit? There is a competition among tourism enterprises. Is there any tourism destination between provinces and cities?

It can be said that whoever moves the earliest and changes the most, the more opportunities he will seize. In fact, many provincial and provincial tourism authorities have been unable to resist. The release order of scenic spots and museums is just a prelude, and bigger initiatives are still behind. Interesting things, comparing the attitude of southern provinces and cities with northern provinces and cities, we can say that the southern provinces and cities have won the battle.

To revive tourism, we must first reduce the emergency response mechanism. Up to now, 25 provinces have reduced the level of emergency response of new crown pneumonia epidemic prevention and control. Among them, a total of 13 provinces, including Guangdong and Jiangsu, adjusted the emergency response level of public health emergency from the first level response to the two level response. Shaanxi, Hainan and other 10 provinces were adjusted to three.

It can be predicted that the provinces and cities with three levels of response will gradually relax control measures and resume normal life in the future. And the recovery of the tourism market will also be in preparation.

In these provinces and cities, I am most optimistic about Hainan and Guangxi, especially Hainan. From the perspective of the epidemic spreading path, the epidemic situation is relatively serious in countries and cities at 36 degrees north latitude, such as Wuhan, Italy, France, Japan and South Korea, while the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia has been relatively mild. Experts say it may be related to high temperatures. After all, temperatures in Singapore and Thailand are as high as 30 degrees in winter.

Hainan and Southeast Asia have the closest temperature and have natural advantages in epidemic prevention and control. Over the past few days, the number of new cases of coronary pneumonia in Hainan has increased by zero and the number of confirmed cases in Sanya has cleared. This brings good external environment to the local tourist market. According to the information of Sanya Tourism Bureau in March 11th, more than 25 thousand people resumed and resumed production in Sanya scenic spots, hotels and other travel related enterprises and stylistic key projects. There are 20 tourist attractions in Sanya, and 12 businesses have resumed operations. Since the scenic spots have resumed business, they have received 74 thousand tourists.

Obviously, this data has not recovered. If you know that the first day of May Day last year, the number of visitors in Sanya scenic spot exceeded one hundred thousand. In 2019, the number of overnight visitors in Sanya was 23 million 963 thousand and 300, an increase of 10% over the previous year.

In order to stimulate tourism consumption, Sanya's major attractions and hotels have released a large number of unprecedented preferential policies. Hotels sell directly at half price, some even to 66% off of the original price. For example, tickets to Sanya, Shanghai only 90 yuan in the past, Beijing in the past only 300 yuan. A friend in Shanghai showed me her bills. Three of them flew over and spent a whole week in Atlantis. The total cost of the trip was only 10 thousand yuan. She said that if normal, at least 20 thousand yuan.

There should be quite a lot of people like her. Recently, the Sanya airport began to surge, and many pioneers who took advantage of the low cost of early adopters had killed them. One of the reasons why people feel relieved is that Sanya does not require foreign tourists to be quarantined for 14 days, as long as you have green health codes.

The new war of recovery is about to start.

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