Crude Oil Bad Luck "Follows" PTA Vulnerable Forward

Affected by the collapse of crude oil, the cost side of PTA collapsed, and the trend of cost side market has become a key factor in the current PTA market. The spot price of PTA is down all week. As of March 12th, the spot price of PTA was 3743 yuan / ton, down 43.54% compared with the same period last year, and it is also a new low in the past 10 years. Is there any rebound in the near future of PTA? Is it suitable for the period of bottom hunting? Let's see it together.

Last week, international oil prices fell sharply. Russia finally rejected the proposal that OPEC jointly reduce production by 1 million 500 thousand barrels per day, and failed to reach agreement on the extension of the production reduction period. As a result, PTA futures opened down on Monday, and spot prices also fell from 4170 yuan / ton to 3700 yuan / ton, a decrease of 11.27% in comparison with the historical data. By the year March 12th, the spot price of PTA was 3743 yuan / ton, which is the lowest price in PTA history in the past ten years.

? ? From the positive and negative factors of the above table PTA, we can see that PTA is hard to get rid of the weak pattern in March. At present, the contradiction between supply and demand of PTA market is more acute. With the collapse of crude oil, the cost side of PTA has collapsed, and the processing fee of PTA has been further abundant. It has been maintained at a high level of 580 yuan / ton recently, and the processing fee has been widened again, so that some parts of the middle and small scale devices have been restarted.

But in the context of the current crude oil prices, public health events at home and abroad, and the background of more than ten million high inventory in PTA300, Fuhai 4 million 500 thousand tons of equipment were put into repair as expected. In March 12th, the 2 million 200 thousand tons of Hengli Petrochemical 3 line also entered the overhaul due to plant failure. The PTA load adjustment was adjusted to 75.28% in March 12th. Although the two sets of mainstream devices have entered maintenance, due to the fact that the cost factor is dominant at present, from the supply situation, the PTA storage state can not be alleviated for the time being, and the oil price drop is not yet fixed. The international oil price will still keep pressure ahead and the new capacity will be put into operation in the future. The PTA rate is still weak.

PTA price trend in recent ten years:

At present, the supply side of PTA is sufficient, because the stock market is difficult to digest, resulting in a poor buying of the polyester spot market. Polyester production and marketing in the near future will maintain 40%, which will further inhibit the rise of PTA market. Especially in this golden three silver four critical moment, in addition to international oil prices will continue to pressure forward, bad air pressure is difficult to quickly dispel, downstream polyester and terminal weaving orders and start up recovery has also become an important factor restricting PTA rebound, and is still dominated by supply and demand pattern for a long time. From the perspective of polyester, downstream terminals and traders are in a state of fear and caution. Very few, polyester load lifting and terminal weaving factory resumption progress is still not optimistic.


Moreover, the mainstream pet factory once a week has a low price promotion, the production and sales volume is limited, the impact on factory inventory pressure is not as expected, and the short-term PTA supply and demand contradiction is still limited. According to long Zhong information statistics, as of March 12th, the comprehensive starting rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces was 65.52%, an increase of 5.07 percentage points.


Comprehensive view: the recent overall market aggravation is concerned about the global economy and demand. At the same time, OPEC+ cancelled the technical committee meeting scheduled for March 18th, and international oil prices continued to fall sharply, dragging down the cost of chemical products and the market mentality. Crude oil dropped sharply, PTA cost collapsed, PTA start-up load had not been substantially reduced, downstream polyester and terminal market resumed work schedule was limited, polyester load showed a slow recovery posture, but in PTA social inventory without large warehouse situation, PTA supply and demand fundamentals remain weak.


Supply and demand pattern is still difficult to change, and at present, PTA cost support is weak, PTA processing area has greatly expanded, all of which are bad for the market, and PTA vulnerable pattern is difficult to alleviate. Further attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil and the progress of downstream demand recovery.