Where Is The Market Going For When Raw Materials Are Down?

In the middle of March, the recovery of textile enterprises in China was basically around 80%, which experienced a brief "hot selling" market. With the gradual recovery of production capacity, cotton yarn prices have gradually cooled down, and orders have become the biggest problem. As of March 12th, the domestic C32S average price was 20608 yuan / ton, down 40 yuan / ton compared with last week.

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Judging from the raw materials of cotton, global commodities are all in a "down and down" because of the impact of Saudi Arabia's crude oil price war and the recent outbreak of overseas epidemic. Since February 21st, Zheng cotton has fallen by 1300-1500 yuan / ton. In February 21st, the main closing price of zhengmian was 13265 yuan / ton, and in a week, it dropped to 12180 yuan / ton as of February 28th. It dropped by more than 1000 yuan. As of press time, today (March 13th), the opening price of Zheng cotton fell directly below 12000 yuan / ton mark, closing at 11775 yuan / ton. Immediately after the futures, spot prices fell synchronously. On the other hand, affected by the epidemic, Xinjiang cotton's storage and sale have been greatly restricted. Affected by raw materials, the price of cotton yarn is also hard to raise. As for textile enterprises, the risk of raw material inventory is also increasing. It is understood that most of the raw materials of textile enterprises are stocked up years ago, and most stocks are in the level of 1 months or so, and the conversion cost is not profitable. Most of the enterprises have abandoned the illusion of "gold, three, silver and four" and adopted the principle of selling products and making cash as king.

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From the lower grey market, compared with the previous start-up load, the load index of this year's start-up is obviously low. Up to now, the load index of the grey fabric startup is less than 50%, and the recovery rate has also decreased significantly. The main reason lies in the fact that although all the light textile cities have been opened, most of them are open. Some factories are considering the factors such as order and inventory transfer. On the other hand, although some factories have resumed work for many days, there are more employees in the field, and some of them have not returned to work. From the inventory point of view, the inventory dropped significantly after the resumption of the textile mill in 2020. Due to the delay in the resumption of work due to the epidemic, the downstream customers urged more textile factories to deliver the goods. But similarly, the weaving factory is also facing the pressure of insufficient new orders, and the market confidence has dropped somewhat.

　　 Recently, the characteristics of imported yarn are: the price is falling as a whole, and the price is falling inside and outside. According to traders, affected by the spread of the epidemic in the global market, market sentiment is not high, the overall price is weak, buyers at low prices, high prices to retreat. As of March 12th, the spot price of FCY Index C32S was 20457 yuan / ton, down 12 yuan / ton compared with last week. At present, the epidemic has spread globally, and its destructive power is amazing. Most of the industry's assessment of the economic performance in the first half of 2020 was very pessimistic, and even felt that the global economy was at risk. Against this background, the producers and traders are gloomy and gloomy. They have to go to the stock market as soon as possible to escape from the market, and the import yarn stock has also risen to an unprecedented height.

According to different countries, the main exporters of pure cotton yarn have cut down the price of cotton yarn. Among them, India (Hong Xian) and Vietnam cotton yarn (Orange Line) are different in quality, and China's progress tariff is 3.5%, while Vietnam's import tariff is 0. Only India yarn is lower than Vietnamese cotton yarn in absolute price, so it has a competitive advantage in the Chinese market. But nearly a year's data show that the price of printed yarn and Vietnamese yarn is almost tight, but Vietnam's C32S advantage is more obvious in Vietnam.

In general, under the background of large fluctuations of raw materials and downward trend of gravity, yarn is encountering resistance from top to bottom. If raw materials and yarns continue to fall in the near future, the survival of enterprises is a big problem.