The Market Quotation Began To Be Chaotic, And The Foreign Orders Were Almost "Stop".

In the middle of March, the recovery of textile enterprises in China was basically around 80%, experiencing a brief "hot selling" market. With the gradual recovery of production capacity, the price of polyester has gradually cooled, and orders have become the biggest problem. At the same time, as the market expects the supply and demand to improve, the sharp collapse of international oil prices and the outbreak of overseas epidemic have brought a great impact on the industry.

As of last Friday, the mainstream manufacturers of POY 75D/36F quoted prices near 6900-7000 yuan / ton, while the price of FDY 50D/24F products was stable at 7900-8000 yuan / ton, compared with last week, it dropped 200-300 yuan / ton, and the two week cumulative decline of 600-700 yuan / ton.

　　 Grey cloth market quotation began confusion, price reduction, falling prices become the "annoyance" of recent manufacturers.

The low volume of bulk textile materials has also depressed the price of the fabric market. Under such circumstances, many customers have been pressing prices on fabric suppliers, and the market quotation has begun to become chaotic.

Wang Zong, who is doing trade in Wujiang, said that the market quotation was chaotic recently, and the price of the customers was very high. The price was close to the lowest price in recent years. Take the conventional 75D with light color as an example, the price in 2018 is about 2.70 yuan / meter, now it is 2.10 yuan / meter.

A manufacturer who manufactures polyester taffy in the market has also indicated that it has recently taken the initiative to reduce the price. Now the price of 210T polyester taff is 1.40 yuan / m, which has dropped 0.10 yuan / meter compared with last week.

Another general Chen, who is doing simulation silk trade, said that polyester has dropped 500 yuan / ton in recent years, and grey cloth has also dropped a lot. The cost of breaking the card was 5 yuan per year, and now it is 4 yuan or more. This is the price that has not appeared in recent years.

Price reduction and price reduction have become the main operations of recent manufacturers. Raw materials have gone down, making the textile market difficult to pick up. The number of textile owners has been significantly reduced this week, and the price of the market has been unstable.

Trouble in spinning and weaving industry chain: export trade orders almost "stop"

The outbreak of the February outbreak in China delayed the revival of the domestic market, and then the outbreak of the global epidemic in March, which caused overseas orders to be affected.

Some foreign trade enterprises said that orders from Italy were cancelled, and orders for 300 thousand meters from South Korea were cancelled. The fact is that the current textile enterprises are internally and internationally worried.

"At present, the impact of the epidemic on foreign trade orders is relatively large, because in recent years, our foreign trade orders are more, many countries because of the epidemic, orders reduced or canceled. I still see pneumonia after that, but I feel the epidemic is over, and the market is just like that. It will take some time to recover. " A foreign trade boss Wang said.

"Even a foreigner's shadow is not seen. The market and factories are cold and clear." In March 7th, Mr. Deng, who specializes in the export of clothing supplies, told reporters that the extent of the loss is still hard to estimate, and there is nothing we can do about it.

The "China underwear first stock" is also known as the export trade business. 6, the relevant responsible person briefed reporters that the company's exports were mainly for Europe, and the United States also had some. "Exports are now being affected, coupled with previous trade wars, and foreign trade is rather difficult." The relevant person in charge of Sha Sha said.

In March 6th, the China Clothing Association conducted a survey on the resumption of garment enterprises. The results showed that 29.4% of the survey enterprises reflected that the orders were reduced due to the low market demand and the cancellation of orders. Some enterprises reflected a sharp decline in domestic orders, and the replenishment of export orders also decreased.

Sales slump has affected the apparel industry chain.

Zhang Xiao, who owns a garment manufacturing OEM factory, sits at the door of his factory, sitting for hours. She could never have imagined that it should be the best time of the year, but it only received orders that could be counted by fingers. In March 7th, she told the times weekly reporter that the resumption of work had been nearly a month, only 9 goods were needed, and the fabric suppliers were unable to supply in time.

Kim Hao (a pseudonym), who sells cloth in Guangzhou Zhongda cloth market, has not yet waited for the notice of returning to the market. "The warehouse is in a closed state, providing limited products." In March 7th, Jin Hao told the times weekly that the rent and wage cost of nearly $200 thousand a month should be paid for the sale.

Recently, a businessman told the times weekly reporter that he decided to give up the production and sale of spring clothes and summer wear.

The epidemic disrupted the rhythm of the sale of the original clothes. "The epidemic will also affect production and production in summer and autumn this year." Cheng Weixiong thinks.

Many textile owners say that the first half of the year's market is hard to get a good breakthrough, especially in the foreign trade market. After all, many domestic trading companies have their final customers abroad. Therefore, terminal closure can easily lead to poor domestic demand and foreign trade. This year's "gold three no gold" is already a certainty.

Profits drop to the bottom, dare not produce, dare not sell cloth!

Since the beginning of the year, most manufacturers have gone to inventory operations more or less because of the orders they made years ago, but with the end of the execution of orders before the year, the new single transaction is not enough.

It is understood that the gray fabric inventory in Shengze has remained at 38 days this week, and it is difficult to reduce. If the new list continues to improve, inventory has entered the turning point of the warehouse.

Today, the devaluation of raw materials has also led to the depreciation of the inventory of textile mills. After all, they used to produce more than the current raw material prices. A leading manufacturer of the spring Asian spinning and polyester taffeta producers said that the current market is not good, and the raw material price slump will have a greater impact on profits. He explained that at present, there are about 40 days of grey cloth inventory in the factory, which was produced nearly 400 million meters ago, when raw material prices were relatively stable, but the price of grey cloth dropped by 0.10 yuan per meter, and the stocks were directly depreciated by 400 thousand.

　　 A textile boss who opened a factory in Jiangxi said he was afraid to raise the operating rate at the moment, for fear of losing one meter in production. "No order has been received since the beginning of this year. At present, I just want to clear up the inventory quickly and not dare to produce more, because the epidemic is spreading all over the world, and the order is missing. Inventory accumulation can easily lead to devaluation of stocks and backlog of funds."

Compared with the start-up load in recent years, the commencement of work resumed in 2020 is obviously lower than that in 2020. According to the monitoring data of China's silk net, at present, the operation in Shengze has been restored to 7-8, and the area in the city has been restored to about 6-7.

　　 In the short term, the impact of oil price collapse on chemical fiber enterprises is relatively large. First of all, it has aggravated the bearish mentality of the market. The spot prices of major chemical fiber products in recent years have been significantly reduced, and the downstream textile enterprises are watching more strongly. In the short term, the market of chemical fiber is still down. Secondly, the decline in crude oil prices has led to a large loss in raw material and product inventory of chemical fiber enterprises, especially in the 1~3 months.

But from another point of view, the cliff type fall of oil prices, that is, one or two days, fell directly to the market, which is more favorable than the negative drop for the chemical fiber market. At present, oil prices have fallen below the 2008 low point, approaching the low point of 2016, and extremes must be reversed. The short-term slump also means closer to the bottom. As the epidemic eased and oil prices rebounded, the stock loss of enterprises would turn to stock returns. In addition, at present, the structure of chemical fiber industry is different from that of the financial crisis in 2008. Industry concentration has been greatly improved in recent years, and there is a certain resistance to fall. Chemical fiber products may not keep the same decline as oil prices.

In the long run, the collapse of crude oil prices has more advantages than disadvantages for the chemical fiber industry. First, the cost of raw materials in the chemical fiber industry will drop sharply, and the falling cost will help stimulate demand growth. The two is the short-term risk superposition outbreak, which will accelerate the integration of the industry's survival of the fittest and further promote the structural reform of the supply side.

Therefore, at present, oil prices are dropping sharply, and the enterprises of chemical fiber industry need not panic. Instead, they should see that the danger is organic. How to grasp the opportunity after this collapse is the top priority. Although volatility has risks, fluctuations will produce value as long as it stands firm.