The Current Price Spreads For The First Time In The First Half Of The Year Are Expected To Be The Main Consolidation Repair (9-13 March 2020).

First, the domestic cotton yarn spot increased or narrowed, the current price difference was negative for the first time in the year.

This week, domestic yarn spot prices narrowed compared with last week. The national cotton market monitoring system yarn index CNCotton C32S average price 20671 yuan / ton, compared with last week rose 6 yuan / ton, yarn cotton price difference 8046 yuan / ton, compared with last week to expand 185 yuan / ton; cotton yarn futures clearing average price 20260 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 524 yuan / ton, lower than spot 411 yuan / ton, the difference narrowed 530 yuan / ton last week.

In March 13th, the Ministry of industry and Commerce said that the average operating rate of industrial enterprises in addition to the north of the country was over 95%, and that the average rate of re employment of enterprises was about 80%. The operating rate of SMEs reached 60%, and the resumption of work and production resumed orderly. But for textile enterprises, after the resumption of production, they are faced with the dilemma of insufficient orders and increased finished products. According to some textile enterprises, the price of cotton yarn has been lowered by 500 yuan / ton this week, including polyester and cotton blended yarn, and the price has basically come back to the beginning of this year. At present, the sales situation is not very optimistic, and some of the cloth factories are also beginning to cut prices.

Two, international cotton yarn prices continue to decline

(1) 32 cotton yarn

This week, the average delivery price of India port was 20630 yuan / ton, down 2 yuan / ton compared with last week. The price difference between China and India [1] [1] expanded 8 yuan / ton to 41 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the average price of Vietnam port delivery was 20246 yuan / ton, down 6 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the difference between China and Vietnam was 12 yuan / ton to 425 yuan / ton last week.

(two) 21 cotton yarn

This week, the average delivery price of India port was 19726 yuan / ton, down 14 yuan / ton compared with last week. The difference between China and India was 18 yuan / ton to 410 yuan / ton last week. The average delivery price of Pakistan port was 19316 yuan / ton, down 14 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the price difference between China and Pakistan increased by 18 yuan / ton to 820 yuan / ton last week.

(three) 10 rotor spinning

This week, the average delivery price of India port was 13356 yuan / ton, down 24 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the price difference between China and India increased by 25 yuan / ton to -86 yuan / ton last week.

According to Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang and other places of cotton yarn traders feedback, since March, India, Pakistan, Vietnam and other places of cotton yarn quotation is more than a drop, inquiry, transaction is now "cold in the spring", especially the India cotton yarn FOB, CNF quotation decline is bigger, the main reasons are: first, the rupee depreciates sharply against the US dollar; two is the domestic cotton yarn consumption in India is low; three, the import cotton quotation has fallen sharply.

Although the main contract of ICE cotton futures has fallen below 60 cents / pound mark, the quotations of import futures yarn have dropped again and again, but traders are still hesitant in signing the outer yarn of 4/5/6 month's shipping date. Only C20S-C32S high demand bleached cotton yarn needs to pick up gradually (including knitted, jet or rapier yarns), 12/1 OE shipped better yarn, and 8S-16S siro spinning has double drop in volume and price.

Three, polyester, short, sticky short prices both fell sharply.

Affected by Russia and Saudi Arabia's oil price war, international crude oil prices fell sharply, and the price of chemical fiber fell sharply. The national cotton market monitoring system chemical fiber index, CNCotton PS (1.4D direct spinning polyester short) average price of 6278 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 148 yuan / ton, cotton polyester price difference narrowed 31 yuan / ton to 6347 yuan / ton last week; CNCotton VS (mainstream viscose staple fiber) average price 9360 yuan / ton, compared with last week fell 240 yuan / ton, cotton sticky price difference increased last week 61 yuan / ton to 3265 yuan / ton.

Four, outlook for the future

(1) the spread of global panic and the steady growth of foreign trade are more difficult.

The global stock market has experienced a very painful period when the global epidemic is rampant, coupled with the impact of the oil price war and the spread of global panic. Data show that the market value of global stock market has evaporated one billion yuan since February 19th. Popularly speaking, in 2019, the world's third largest economy, Japan's GDP was roughly 35 trillion yuan, that is to say, the global stock market has lost Japan's GDP of 3 years.

In March 11th, who announced that the new crown virus epidemic has developed into a pandemic, urging governments to step up efforts to combat epidemics. Over the past two weeks, the number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia outside China has increased 13 times, and the number of infected countries has increased by three times. At present, the number of confirmed cases worldwide has exceeded 120 thousand. The General Administration of Customs of China said that the risk of epidemic input increased sharply, and the epidemic prevention and control at the port was facing great challenges, so as to promote the steady growth of foreign trade.

However, whether it is from epidemic prevention or control or stabilizing the economy, China's support for other countries to fight the epidemic on manpower and material resources is a win-win situation. Only if the global epidemic situation is alleviated, can the world economy recover and China's exports will stabilize.

(two) it is difficult to maintain the first half of the trial on the basis of consolidation.

At present, the epidemic situation is spreading significantly in the world. In the future, China will face enormous uncertainties in the global economy and the international financial market. Against this background, China's textile industry, which has just experienced the Sino US trade war in 2019, can be described as "worse." In the first two weeks, the hot situation of dyeing factories is hard to maintain. Although some dye factories have begun to raise fees for dye price increases, the shortage of subsequent orders in upstream enterprises will become a price constraint. According to industry sources, the rise was mainly due to the delayed start of dye companies, the backlog of orders before the year, and the sudden release of demand with the resumption of work, resulting in a short imbalance in market supply and demand.

In the light of the progress of the national resumption of production and the situation of textile upstream and downstream, the domestic cotton spot price has dropped sharply in recent years. The CNCotton B index of the national cotton market monitoring system representing the average price of the 3128B grade lint market in the mainland has fallen by more than 1000 yuan compared with the beginning of this year. Affected by the decline in raw materials, many textile enterprises began to reduce the price of cotton yarn. At the moment, the risk of global economic recession is rising rapidly, clothing demand or further weakening, many enterprises began to fight price war, a large number of dumping, will have a negative impact on the market, coupled with this year in April, clothing enterprises in spring and summer stockings than in previous years, affected by the epidemic, the pressure of business turnover increased steeply, textile industry from the serious recovery of the epidemic still need time, the market virtuous circle. Repair also takes time, so the first half of the market or consolidation will be the main repair.

(three) revitalize capital and promote differentiated products.

Capital is the lifeblood of enterprises, especially when the impact of the epidemic has not yet dispersed. Most of the enterprises adopt cash as the king, sell products and reduce inventory. Market oriented, customer focused, efficient orders, strict control of product quality, ensuring timely delivery of orders, and playing differentiated competitive cards, promoting differentiated products, or timely transformation of production, to form a new growth point of efficiency, after all, in the face of complex situation, the fittest can survive.

[1] the difference is the difference between the yarn price and the yarn price.