1-2, The National Economy Withstood The Impact Of The New Crown Pneumonia Epidemic.

"The impact of the epidemic on the current Chinese economy is also short-term and external. It will not change the fundamentals of China's long-term economic development, nor will it change the upward momentum of China's economic development." The Information Office of the State Council held a press conference on the morning of March 16th, and the relevant officials of the National Bureau of Statistics announced the operation of the national economy in 2020 1-2.

How about the national economy in 1-2?

- agricultural production is basically stable, and spring ploughing and farming are in full swing.

The area of winter wheat sown in China is 331 million mu. At present, the seedling is basically stable and the growth is generally good.

- decline in industrial production and growth of important material production

In 1-2, the added value of above scale industries decreased by 13.5% compared with the same period last year.

- the decline of service industry and the continuous development of new service industry.

In 1-2, the national service production index fell by 13% over the same period last year.

- sales are decreasing, sales of consumer necessities and online retail of physical goods continue to grow.

In 1-2, retail sales of consumer goods totaled 52130 billion yuan, down 20.5% from the same period last year.

- investment in fixed assets is lower, and investment in high-tech industries and social sectors is lower than average.

In 1-2, fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 33323 billion yuan, down 24.5% from the same period last year.

The market price is basically stable, the consumer price and the producer price trend are divided.

In 1-2, consumer prices nationwide rose 5.3% over the same period last year.

- the unemployment rate has increased and the employment of major groups has been generally stable.

In 1-2, there were 1 million 80 thousand new jobs in cities and towns nationwide. In February, the unemployment rate of urban survey in China was 6.2%, and the unemployment rate in 31 big cities and towns was 5.7%.

Import and export trade deficit, trade structure continues to optimize.

In 1-2 months, the total import and export volume of goods was 41238 billion yuan, down 9.6% from the same period last year.

Has the Chinese economy withstood the impact of the epidemic?

From the data point of view, the epidemic has indeed caused a relatively large impact on the current economic operation, but careful analysis shows that the impact of the epidemic on the current Chinese economy is short-term and external. It will not change the fundamentals of China's long-term economic development, nor will it change the internal upward momentum of China's economy. The impact of the epidemic on China's economy is generally controllable in the short run. China's economy has withstood the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in 1-2.

What is the employment situation this year?

From January and February, the unemployment rate increased, especially in February, the unemployment rate reached 6.2%, and January was 5.3%. The main reason for the increase in unemployment rate in February is still affected by the epidemic. The production and business activities of enterprises are affected, and the demand for employment has decreased, and the number of employed persons has declined. Despite the overall increase in the unemployment rate in February, the employment situation of some key groups is relatively stable. For example, the unemployment rate of the 25-59 year old main age population is 5.6%, which is 0.6 percentage points lower than that of the whole group. The unemployment rate for people aged 20-24 or above is 0.4 percentage points lower than that of last month.

With the continuous improvement of the production order of enterprises, the employment of enterprises is constantly improving, and the demand for employment will continue to increase. With the gradual improvement of the economy, especially in the second half of the year, if we go more steadily, the pressure of employment will be reduced as a whole.

From the policy point of view, in the past two years' macro policies, the positive fiscal policy, prudent monetary policy and preferential employment policy are put together with the employment policy and the fiscal and monetary policy. This shows that the employment problem is highly valued. Generally speaking, although the employment situation is still grim this year, there are still structural contradictions in the pressure of total employment. However, on the one hand, the central government will intensify the hedging of macroeconomic policies and strive to stabilize enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises with large demand for labor. Stabilizing enterprises and stabilizing the economy will stabilize employment. On the other hand, the policy of preferential employment will be further intensified. For example, increasing employment training for employment personnel, transfer workers or migrant workers will make better use of the employment fund and increase the employment training for key groups, including college students and migrant workers, so as to further promote flexible employment.

Generally speaking, through a more vigorous policy role, the employment situation throughout the year will remain stable.

Will prices continue to rise?

From the next stage, the possibility that consumer price inflation will continue to expand is still relatively small.

The first is food price factors. Last year, grain production reached a record high. From the current perspective, the situation of agricultural production is still good, including the survival of pig farms and the increase in the prices of pigs and pigs. The price of live pigs has fallen at a high level. In late February and mid February, the price of live pigs has decreased by 4.6% compared with that in late March and 1.3% in February. Therefore, the price of pork is generally showing a trend of high decline.

The two is epidemic factors. With the continuous improvement of domestic epidemic prevention and control, the circulation of materials and the resumption of enterprises are accelerating. The supply of industrial consumer goods will continue to increase, and the circulation of materials will become smoother. This will also help keep prices relatively stable.

Three is the tail factor. From the whole year, the tail factor of the future price will gradually weaken, especially in the second half of the year. Therefore, from the whole year, the basis for the continued sharp rise in consumer prices does not exist. The overall growth of consumer prices should tend to fall, especially in the second half of the year.

Will the deficit rate increase?

From the perspective of policy orientation, on the one hand, we should further promote tax reduction and fee reduction so that enterprises can lighten their burdens and help them to tide over difficulties. On the other hand, we should continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and be more active and promising. On the whole, the overall level of Chinese government debt is still relatively low, especially in the assets of debt formation. Some assets have better profitability. From this perspective, there is room for an appropriate increase in the deficit rate.

What is the impact of the epidemic on China's foreign trade?

The epidemic has been preliminarily controlled in China, but the trend of spreading abroad is relatively fast. This will also bring some influence. In this case, there are two main points: first, we must continue to do a good job in epidemic prevention and control. We must not slack off, including doing our own epidemic prevention and control, including promoting international cooperation in strengthening epidemic prevention and control. We have experience in this area and better assume the role of a responsible big country. Second, now that the global economy is facing some difficulties, we should break away some irrational trade rules and trade barriers, and better make the world economy cope with the impact of the epidemic so as to better bring the world economy and trade back to the normal development track.

Next, the basic orientation of macro policy?

In order to better hedge the impact of the epidemic, including coping with external risks and challenges, we will further intensify macroeconomic policy adjustment. It includes a positive fiscal policy, a more active and promising policy; a prudent monetary policy should be more flexible and moderate; the policy of giving priority to employment should be further intensified, which is a basic policy orientation. From the perspective of fiscal policy, we should further reduce the burden on enterprises, and further reduce taxes and reduce fees. In the past two years, the intensity of tax reduction and tax reduction has been very great. This year, we should continue to increase this effort, including the reduction of some expenses, the reduction of energy consumption costs and so on. The same is true of monetary policy. From the perspective of supporting enterprises, we should maintain a reasonable and abundant liquidity, and strive to reduce the loan cost of enterprises.