How To Relax The Restriction Of Cars?

After the announcement of the first passenger car Yaohao in Beijing in 2020, Mr. Aboriginal Yang of Beijing was disappointed again.

"Yaohao for 8 years, rent 4 years, rent 20 thousand a year." Yang told the twenty-first Century economic news reporter, "a license plate 250 thousand straight down, can not afford to buy, that is not worth it."

Faced with the same experience, Mr. Liu, who lives in Daxing District, has the economic strength of buying a car. Fortunately, the goddess of fortune has yet to come. There are 3 people in the family who have been Yaohao for 6 years. "It is really inconvenient for the elderly to see a doctor and their children to go to school. For a family like ours, a number plate is just needed."

"Every time I look forward to it, every time I end up disappointed," every time the Beijing passenger car Yaohao results were announced, the Yaohao participants who had the same experience with Mr. Yang and Mr. Liu were common. One is hard to find. Some people question the fairness and impartiality of Yaohao, some people complain about the lazy politics of policymakers, and others call for reform. On the road of Yaohao, we are disappointed, complaining, doubting and angry.

The contradiction between supply and demand continues to rise. In 2020, there were 3350538 valid codes (the total number of cardinal numbers was 17936743) for the first phase of the Beijing Yaohao ordinary passenger car index, while the individual ordinary passenger car index was only 6417. This means that only one of the 2796 can be blessed by the lucky goddess.

In the face of the long Yaohao road of fuel cars and the urgency of Beijing's subsidy policy for new energy vehicles to be completely pushed back, Miss Zheng, who has just graduated soon after graduating, weighed in the balance at the beginning of her studies and chose to wait in line for a new energy vehicle index.

Ms. Cheng is undoubtedly lucky. In 2020, the annual quota of new energy vehicles has been successfully used in the first phase of the 54200 quota of new energy buses. At this point, even the number of new energy bus applications has exceeded 467 thousand. According to the current configuration rules, the new applicants of the new energy vehicle index will wait for 9 years to get the index.

And there is a "number" difficult to find the city not just Beijing. Up to now, a total of six cities and one province in China have implemented the policy of car restriction, namely, Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Hangzhou, Shenzhen and Hainan provinces.

The contradiction between supply and demand urgently needs to be solved.

In December 23, 2010, the Beijing traffic congestion control new regulation "Provisional Regulations on the regulation of the number of small passenger cars in Beijing" was officially implemented. The allocation of passenger cars will be distributed free of charge in the way of Yaohao, and the Beijing license plate Yaohao policy is officially on the stage of history. At that time, motor vehicle ownership in Beijing was about 4 million 600 thousand, and it will increase by nearly 1 million cars per year.

In the environment of congestion, fog and haze gradually entering the public agenda, Beijing finally decided to embark on the policy of restricting and limiting motor vehicles.

According to the objectives of the traffic development and construction plan of Beijing during the 13th Five-Year plan and the implementation plan of Beijing master plan (2017 -2020), the motor vehicle ownership in the whole city was controlled at 6 million 300 thousand by the end of 2020.

"In 2019, urban traffic operation data was better than previous years, higher than expected, and overall stability, safety and order, and efficiency has been improved. In 2019, the peak area traffic index of six districts in the city was 5.48, down 1.08% from the same period last year. The average running speed of the road network in Beijing peak hour is 24.83 km / h, an increase of 0.4% over the same period last year. In the evening of January 11th, the two sessions of the government advisory committee, Beijing Traffic Commission spokesman Rong Jun said.

The sacrifice of personal interests is directed towards easing congestion. The reality that we need to face now is the contradiction between the demand for private car travel and the number plate supply and the automobile consumption.

One end of the chain is the growing demand for residents to buy cars. The other end is to control the traffic congestion, air pollution and other urban governance problems caused by the rapid increase of motor vehicles. Under the influence of supply and demand, the automobile industry under the influence of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in 2020 also needs to boost consumption.

In March 12th, the monthly sales data released by the China Association of automobile manufacturers showed that in February this year, automobile sales and sales fell sharply, and vehicle production and sales volume was 285 thousand and 310 thousand respectively, down 79.8% and 79.1% respectively from the same period last year. In 1-2 months, 2 million 48 thousand cars and 2 million 238 thousand vehicles were sold and sold, down 45.8% and 42% compared with the same period last year.

"Affected by the epidemic, consumer demand is insufficient or even not, the domestic industry chain supply system has not yet fully recovered, enterprises due to slow progress, spare parts supply and other problems leading to low output level, February production and marketing bottomed out." Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of China Automotive Association, said in an interview with the twenty-first Century economic report reporter.

The contradiction between supply and demand is urgently needed to be solved because of the increasing demand for residents' travel, the bailout of automobile consumption and the restriction of the purchase of automobiles. From the central government to the local authorities, we should push ahead with the relaxation of the restriction on the purchase of automobiles, as well as the policy and suggestions for appropriately increasing the quota of car plates.

"Promoting the scrapping and updating of motor vehicles, speeding up the implementation of the regulations on scrapped motor vehicle recycling management, strictly implementing the technical specifications of scrapped motor vehicle recycling and dismantling enterprises, and improving the implementation of agricultural machinery scrapping and updating guidance. We should promote the restriction of car purchase to the guidance and use policy, and encourage the proper number of car license plates in the auto purchase area.

In March 13th, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Commerce and other 23 departments jointly issued the "Implementation Opinions on promoting consumption expansion, upgrading quality and accelerating the formation of a strong domestic market".

In March 3rd, the Guangzhou municipal government issued a number of measures for Guangzhou to resolutely win the new crown pneumonia epidemic prevention and control struggle and strive to achieve the goal of economic and social development in the whole year. The first gun was launched to relax the restriction, and the implementation of the new quota of 100 thousand small and medium buses in June 2019 was accelerated.

Looking forward to "loosening"

"From the point of view of the state's fight against the epidemic, at present, the auto industry urgently needs the introduction of relevant national industrial policies and the improvement of the market environment so as to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the automobile industry, such as appropriately increasing the number of vehicle license plates in the restricted area, lifting the purchase of new energy vehicles, adjusting the purchase tax rate of passenger cars with small displacement (below 1.6L level), and promoting the consumption policy of motor vehicles to the countryside. And so on. On March 12th, Jianhua, Deputy Secretary General of China Automotive Industry Association, said at the automobile monthly production and marketing conference.

In addition to the public voice, under the outbreak of the epidemic, the auto industry is eager to buy the city "relaxed", promoting the automobile consumption has become a common voice in the industry, of which the "relaxation of car restriction" discussion is particularly warm.

"The impact of the epidemic on this year is manifold. From the demand side, it affects consumer confidence, while the epidemic affects consumption capacity. The underemployment of all walks of life leads to a decline in personal income, while consumption support capability will decrease. From the supply side or from the enterprise level, it has also caused various influences, such as supply chain, logistics, financial pressure and financial pressure of enterprises themselves. These comprehensive effects have caused a great drop in vehicle production and sales. "

In March 12th, Zhang Jinhua, Secretary General of the China Automotive Engineering Society, told the economic report in twenty-first Century, "if there is no effective incentive policy or incentive measures, there will be no doubt that the drop will be very large in the first half of this year. 30% and 40% are possible, and will lead to a decline of at least 20% over the whole year."

In Zhang Jinhua's view, if the auto industry falls by 20%, it will be "unbearable" for the overall national economy.

According to the calculation, China's automobile industry has more than 1 trillion yuan of tax revenue, accounting for 10% of the total tax revenue of the country, and more than 40 million employees in automobile and direct related industries, accounting for 10% of the total number of employed persons in cities and towns nationwide. The consumption of automobile products is nearly 4 trillion yuan, accounting for more than 10% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods in China.

If the car sales fell by 50% in the first quarter of this year, it would drag 1.7% of the total retail sales to 0.9% of the total economic growth. If the annual sales volume dropped by 7%, it would drag 0.2% of the social zero to 0.1% of the economic growth.

Huaxi Securities expects that, at present, there are over 8 million accumulated demand in the whole country, and if it is gradually digested in 5 years, it is expected to contribute about 1 million 600 thousand vehicles to the market every year, and the contribution to the growth of the automobile industry will be about 6%. If the restriction policy is gradually liberalized and the real demand is reflected, the automobile market will usher in a larger development space.

In fact, over the past year, a number of ministries and commissions of the country have repeatedly proposed restriction on "deregulation".

In January 2019, the 10 ministries and commissions of the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of transport jointly issued the implementation plan of further optimizing supply and promoting steady growth of consumption to form a strong domestic market (2019), and put forward "optimizing management measures for motor vehicle purchase restriction" to promote automobile consumption.

In June 2019, the national development and Reform Commission issued the "implementation plan for promoting the upgrading and upgrading of key consumer products and smooth recycling of resources" (2019-2020 years). It was proposed that the local governments that have implemented the auto purchase restriction should speed up the shift from restricted purchase to guidance and use, and all localities should not restrict or restrict the purchase of new energy vehicles, which should be abolished.

In November 2019, a spokesman for the national development and Reform Commission disclosed at a news conference that we should stabilize the bulk of car consumption and study the policy of eliminating restrictions on consumption. We should stabilize the consumption of cars and other consumers, eliminate the restrictions on vehicle consumption, and explore specific measures to gradually relax or cancel the purchase restriction, so as to promote the policy of car purchase restriction to change the guiding use policy.

"The most effective measure to save the market is to push local governments to cancel or partially cancel the purchase of vehicles. However, we should adopt different policies according to the specific circumstances of the city. We must not cut it across the board. Fu Yuwu, honorary chairman of the China Automotive Engineering Society, told reporters.

How to "relax"?

"Car purchase restriction relieves urban traffic pressure to a certain extent, but at the same time restraining the release of market demand. It is suggested that Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and other places should appropriately relax the quota of purchase quota. Meanwhile, local governments should guide private cars through the comprehensive scheme of suburban management in urban and suburban areas, proper restrictions on congested roads, etc., and reduce the intensity of car use and realize the balanced development of automobile industry and urban traffic through detailed management and construction of urban intelligent transportation network. In March 6th, the Great Wall automobile appealed for "eliminating policy restrictions, stabilizing car consumption - some suggestions on China's auto industry stimulus policy".

But it is undeniable that for Beijing, Shanghai and other mega city managers, the full liberalization of the restriction, there are indeed difficulties.

A few days ago, the Beijing Municipal Bureau of statistics and the Beijing survey team of the National Bureau of statistics released the "Beijing economic and social development statistics bulletin" in 2019. As of the end of 2019, the number of motor vehicles in Beijing was 6 million 365 thousand, an increase of 281 thousand vehicles over the end of last year. Civilian vehicles 5 million 908 thousand, an increase of 162 thousand vehicles. Among them, 4 million 974 thousand private cars, an increase of 184 thousand.

Despite the start of Yaohao restriction in 2010, the growth rate of motor vehicle ownership in Beijing has been decreasing year by year. But the total number of holdings is comparable to that of international cities at the same level. Seoul did not break through the 3 million mark in 2014. In the past ten years, London, New York and Tokyo have kept the motor vehicle registration volume below 2 million 900 thousand.

"Restricting the purchase of vehicles is not a permanent solution to traffic problems." Industry experts say, "international experience shows that to control traffic congestion, it is necessary to take measures to develop rail transit, optimize urban structure, improve traffic management level, strengthen infrastructure construction, implement policies to encourage purchase, guide and economize on consumption, implement regional vehicle restrictions (such as setting up low emission areas) and so on, which is a package project."

In order to control urban traffic congestion and improve air pollution, the ULEZ (ultra low emission area) came into operation in London since April 8, 2019. It replaced the previous T charge, that is, "gas fee", which is effective throughout the whole year. From Monday to Friday, the congestion charge of Euro 11.50 charged at 07:00 to 18:00 will also continue. This means that some drivers need to pay 24 pounds a day to drive to London.

Prior to that, London has built a perfect urban public transport network, and built a lot of parking lots in the suburbs to pave the way for congestion fees.

Yaohao policy is a very crude solution. There is no good selection of the Yaohao object. There is no targeted exploration. We can refer to the Tokyo way. No limit is allowed, but congestion charge is charged. For example, according to the hourly calculation, the second ring is 20 yuan, the third ring is 18 yuan, the fourth ring is 15 yuan, and the fifth ring is 10 yuan.

Yang said to reporters, "this has solved the problem of congestion and zombie occupying, increasing revenue and giving full play to traffic. Avoid idle vehicles occupying Beijing's transport resources. Yaohao is to optimize dredging, and like water control, can not rely on blocking flow restriction, we should consider how to disperse vehicles.

But the difficult road planning, the inconvenient public transport and the huge opposition of netizens are all the obstacles for Beijing to impose "congestion fees".

In the view of Fu Wu, city managers must increase the effective supply of urban traffic by tens of thousands of cities, such as more scientific planning and more appropriate management of road capacity. Specific measures include changing the status of "necking" sections, appropriately increasing parking lots and parking spaces, releasing market vitality, boosting consumer confidence and meeting the needs of ordinary people for automobile consumption. This is the absolute principle.

At the same time, it is also necessary to increase the supply of license plates and encourage new energy vehicles. To learn from Japan and Europe and increase the volume of roads, we must strongly guide the development of car consumption to miniaturization.

"City managers should use new ideas to manage cities, and stress" management "instead of" limits ". The wisdom and change of city managers is also a sign of increasing soft power. City managers solve the problem of traffic congestion by administrative, economic and market levers and policies. Restriction is a must. A service-oriented government needs comprehensive management and precise implementation.

Fu Yu Wu finally said that the supply side structural reform, the automotive industry needs to go unswervingly, to enhance the overall urban management level, to increase effective supply of all aspects of road traffic is also very necessary.

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