National Bureau Of Statistics: 1-2 Month, The National Economy Has Withstood The Impact Of The New Crown Pneumonia Epidemic.

- agricultural production is basically stable, and spring ploughing and farming are in full swing.

The area of winter wheat sown in China is 331 million mu. At present, the seedling is basically stable and the growth is generally good.

- decline in industrial production and growth of important material production

In 1-2, the added value of above scale industries decreased by 13.5% compared with the same period last year.

- the decline of service industry and the continuous development of new service industry.

In 1-2, the national service production index fell by 13% over the same period last year.

- sales are decreasing, sales of consumer necessities and online retail of physical goods continue to grow.

In 1-2, retail sales of consumer goods totaled 52130 billion yuan, down 20.5% from the same period last year.

- investment in fixed assets is lower, and investment in high-tech industries and social sectors is lower than average.

In 1-2, fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) was 33323 billion yuan, down 24.5% from the same period last year.

The market price is basically stable, the consumer price and the producer price trend are divided.

In 1-2, consumer prices nationwide rose 5.3% over the same period last year.

- the unemployment rate has increased and the employment of major groups has been generally stable.

In 1-2, there were 1 million 80 thousand new jobs in cities and towns nationwide. In February, the unemployment rate of urban survey in China was 6.2%, and the unemployment rate in 31 big cities and towns was 5.7%.

Import and export trade deficit, trade structure continues to optimize.

In 1-2 months, the total import and export volume of goods was 41238 billion yuan, down 9.6% from the same period last year.

From the data point of view, the epidemic has indeed caused a relatively large impact on the current economic operation. The impact of the epidemic on the current Chinese economy is also short-term and external. It will not change the fundamentals of China's long-term economic development, nor will it change the upward momentum of China's economic development. The impact of the epidemic on China's economy is generally controllable in the short run. China's economy has withstood the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in 1-2.

From January and February, the unemployment rate increased, especially in February, the unemployment rate reached 6.2%, and January was 5.3%. The main reason for the increase in unemployment rate in February is still affected by the epidemic. The production and business activities of enterprises are affected, and the demand for employment has decreased, and the number of employed persons has declined. Despite the overall increase in the unemployment rate in February, the employment situation of some key groups is relatively stable. For example, the unemployment rate of the 25-59 year old main age population is 5.6%, which is 0.6 percentage points lower than that of the whole group. The unemployment rate for people aged 20-24 or above is 0.4 percentage points lower than that of last month.

With the continuous improvement of the production order of enterprises, the employment of enterprises is constantly improving, and the demand for employment will continue to increase. With the gradual improvement of the economy, especially in the second half of the year, if we go more steadily, the pressure of employment will be reduced as a whole.

From the policy point of view, in the past two years' macro policies, the positive fiscal policy, prudent monetary policy and preferential employment policy are put together with the employment policy and the fiscal and monetary policy. This shows that the employment problem is highly valued. Generally speaking, although the employment situation is still grim this year, there are still structural contradictions in the pressure of total employment. On the one hand, the central government will intensify the hedging of macro policies and strive to stabilize enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises with large demand for labor. Stabilizing enterprises and stabilizing economic operation will stabilize employment. On the other hand, the priority of employment policy will be further intensified. For example, increasing employment training for employment, transfer workers or migrant workers will make better use of the employment fund, and help increase the employment of key groups, including college students and migrant workers, and further promote flexible employment.

Generally speaking, through a more vigorous policy role, the employment situation throughout the year will remain stable.

From the next stage, the possibility that consumer price inflation will continue to expand is still relatively small.

The first is food price factors. Last year, grain production reached a record high. From the current perspective, the situation of agricultural production is still good, including the survival of pig farms and the increase in the prices of pigs and pigs. The price of live pigs has fallen at a high level. In late February and mid February, the price of live pigs has decreased by 4.6% compared with that in late March and 1.3% in February. Therefore, the price of pork is generally showing a trend of high decline.

The two is epidemic factors. With the continuous improvement of domestic epidemic prevention and control, the circulation of materials and the resumption of enterprises are accelerating. The supply of industrial consumer goods will continue to increase, and the circulation of materials will become smoother. This will also help keep prices relatively stable.

Three is the tail factor. From the whole year, the tail factor of the future price will gradually weaken, especially in the second half of the year. Therefore, from the whole year, the basis for the continued sharp rise in consumer prices does not exist. The overall growth of consumer prices should tend to fall, especially in the second half of the year.

From the next policy orientation, on the one hand Further promote tax reduction and fee reduction Let enterprises lighten their burdens and help them to tide over difficulties. On the other hand, Continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy We should be more active and promising. On the whole, the overall level of Chinese government debt is still relatively low, especially in the assets of debt formation. Some assets have better profitability. From this perspective, there is room for an appropriate increase in the deficit rate.

The epidemic has been preliminarily controlled in China, but the trend of spreading abroad is relatively fast. This will also bring some influence. In this case, the two most important ones are: first, and Continue to grasp epidemic prevention and control There should be no slack, including the prevention and control of our own epidemic situation, and the promotion of international cooperation in strengthening epidemic prevention and control. We have experience in this area to better assume the role of a responsible big country. Second, the global economy is facing some difficulties. Break away some unreasonable trade rules and trade barriers and cancel them. To better enable the world economy to cope with the impact of the epidemic, and better bring the world economy and trade back to the track of normal development.

In order to better hedge the impact of the epidemic, including coping with external risks and challenges, we will continue to do so. Intensify the adjustment of macro policies 。 Include Positive fiscal policy We should be more active and promising. Prudent monetary policy We should be more flexible and moderate. Employment priority policy We should further intensify our efforts, which is a basic policy orientation. From the perspective of fiscal policy, we should further reduce the burden on enterprises, and further reduce taxes and reduce fees. In the past two years, the intensity of tax reduction and tax reduction has been very great. This year, we should continue to increase this effort, including the reduction of some expenses, the reduction of energy consumption costs and so on. The same is true of monetary policy. From the perspective of supporting enterprises, we should maintain a reasonable and abundant liquidity, and strive to reduce the loan cost of enterprises.