Epidemic Ferment Reduces Cotton Consumption, And Overseas Epidemic Restricts Cotton Price.

At the time when domestic epidemic prevention and control have already won a major victory, the development of overseas epidemic has become difficult to control, which will have an immeasurable impact on the global economy in the first half of this year.

The spread of overseas epidemic is accelerating.

Outside Hubei Province, the number of newly diagnosed cases has been increased for a long time to less than 30 people. Most of the recent confirmed cases are imported overseas cases. The recent control effect in Hubei area is good, and the number of newly diagnosed cases in cities outside Wuhan has dropped to single digit or even zero. The number of new confirmed diagnoses in Wuhan has also dropped to single digits.

Overseas outbreaks are intensifying, especially in Europe. At present, the number of new diagnoses per day is more than 10000, and the speed is faster and faster, mainly in Western Europe. From the control measures of various countries, the coercive measures adopted by Asian countries have achieved good results. The epidemic situation in Korea is basically controlled. The policies of European countries are relatively loose, and a "flat" control method has been adopted. This control method does not evaluate the effect of epidemic control, but the negative impact on the economy is obviously small.

Fermentation will reduce cotton consumption

From the feedback from the downstream, although the enterprises have basically resumed their work, they are affected by factors such as geographical location, size and the source of workers. There are great differences in the rate of workers coming to work, some of whom are able to work full-time, and some only 30%. The overall situation is that large and medium-sized cotton mills are located in cities with large scale and large number of recruited workers. Apart from this place, many of them come from other provinces and even in other provinces. Due to the need of epidemic prevention and control, the rate of workers being on duty is low.

Most of the cotton mills that have resumed and resumed production are mainly ordered by the year before, and the order is less after the year. Export enterprises said that orders from abroad were significantly reduced, and even earlier orders were cancelled.

According to the current situation, it is expected that the consumption of domestic demand will be severely damaged in spring, and the consumption of summer clothing will also be partly affected. The consumption of spring and summer in external demand will be significantly affected.

Cotton turns from supply and demand to excess

According to the latest forecast by USDA, the total output of cotton in the world in is 26 million 474 thousand tons, increasing by 57 thousand tons in the month to month ratio, an increase of 650 thousand tons compared with 2018/2019, an increase of about 2.5%; the global consumption of 25 million 727 thousand tons, a reduction of 185 thousand tons in the ring ratio, a decrease of 466 thousand tons compared with the 2018/2019 year; 18 million 158 thousand tons in the end of the global period, an increase of 278 thousand tons in the ring, an increase of 701 thousand tons compared with the same period last year. USDA's downgrade of global consumption is mainly based on the current global spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Judging from the current situation of the epidemic and feedback from the downstream, there is still room for reduction in consumption. The end of the global inventory is expected to continue to rise. This year, from the initial balance of supply and demand to an obvious surplus. Under such circumstances, even if the state reserves turn into 1 million tons of cotton into the global market, there will be no tension in the global market this year.

To sum up, as the epidemic continues to ferment overseas, the global financial market presents a panic pattern, while the epidemic directly reduces cotton consumption. The supply relationship has turned to excess this year, and cotton prices are expected to remain weak for some time.