Vietnam'S Textile Exports Are Down, And Raw Materials Are Dependent On China'S Supply.

According to official statistics from Vietnam, Vietnam's textile exports totaled only $39 billion in 2019, and its export target industry of $40 billion failed. However, Vietnam is not discouraged and wants to make persistent efforts. The textile export target in 2020 has been raised to a range of 42 billion to 42 billion 500 million dollars. However, according to the export situation of Vietnam's textile industry in the first 2 months, Vietnam's export target for textile industry in 2020 is likely to fail again.

Textile exports in the first half of February were only 5 billion 300 million dollars, and 2020 Vietnam's 42 billion 500 million targets were afraid to fail again.

According to Yue Tong's latest data, Vietnam's textile and clothing exports amounted to US $5 billion 300 million in the first two months of 2020, down 3.5% from the same period last year. In the first 2 months of this year, Vietnam's textile exports have been much lower than the same period last year, that is, Vietnam's goal of achieving US $42 billion 500 million in 2020, the average monthly export target must be about $3 billion 720 million per month. But for now, if there is no major positive news, the possibility of achieving this month's goal is still relatively low.

The total export volume of textile and garment industry is as high as 820 billion US dollars, which occupies an important position in the global economy. Vietnam has become the third largest textile exporter in the world after China and India. In 2019 Vietnam was the FTA which concluded that the cost of textiles and clothing export was zero with the European Union, Japan and Canada. But even in the absence of a zero charge, Vietnam failed to achieve its export targets last year, that is, zero fees had little effect on export promotion in 2020.

Moreover, Vietnam is heavily dependent on China's supply of textile raw materials. According to Vietnam's statistics, China's fabrics and fibers accounted for 60% and 55% of Vietnam's imports last year. It can be said that China's suspension of textile raw material supply has a considerable impact on Vietnam's textile industry. At present, China has resumed some raw material supply, which can basically meet Vietnam's basic production demand in March and April.

Soon after, with the full resumption of Chinese enterprises, the supply of raw materials will return to normal, but the competition for raw material orders will become more intense. According to incomplete statistics, at least 143 countries in the world are affected by the new crown epidemic situation, which will increase the production of some products that are just needed for the epidemic. The demand for textile raw materials, such as some parts of masks, will also see a surge. Whether Vietnam can win the raw materials of China in the past is still unknown.

Vietnamese durian prices have risen by at least 40%. China has suspended trade with durian.

Vietnam's exports of agricultural products are also facing unsalable sales as well as textile industry. According to Vietnam's data, Vietnam's aquatic products exports dropped by 17.7% to 912 million dollars in the first 2 months of 2020, and the export of fruits and vegetables dropped by 17.4%. In the depressed environment of Vietnam's export of fruits and vegetables, due to insufficient irrigation water in the dry season and serious damage to Shanghai's water invasion, the durian harvest of Vietnam's Qianjiang province was greatly reduced.

According to Yue Tong's latest report, in this case, the price of durian in Vietnam's Qianjiang province has increased sharply, which is conducive to reducing the losses of local farmers. At present, the area of durian planting in this area is as high as 350 hectares, and the harvested durian is as high as 7 kiloton, while durian's purchasing price is about 70 thousand. That is, the total income of local fruit farmers is as high as 490 billion.

In the past, the normal sale price of durian was 50 thousand shield / kg, with an average revenue of 1 billion per hectare, that is, the normal income of fruit growers was only 350 billion Vietnamese shield. That is to say, though affected by disasters, Vietnam's fruit growers are not losing money, but they are making more profits. But did purchasers buy durian at high price?

Vietnam's 70% durian can be sold to China through border trade between China and Vietnam. But at the beginning of last year, China suspended the sales channel. Although Vietnam has been seeking entry permit for durian to enter China, up to now, it has not yet fulfilled its wish. Vietnam can only sell it to the United States at its cheap price, but the price of Vietnamese durian is much higher than the usual selling price. If the US market does not buy it, then this high price durian will have to be smashed in the hands of Vietnamese exporters.