The Oil Price Is Down Again, The US Stock Is Melting And The Domino Effect Makes The Textile Raw Material Market Precarious.

The recent market is not smooth, because the impact of public health events continues to expand, the new crown pneumonia epidemic caused global demand for crude oil greatly reduced, today's crude oil prices continue to decline. Domino's domino effect has been opened by many factors, and the US stock market has flocked four times in 10 days, and the global financial market has plummeted. Textile materials such as polyester, cotton and yarns are at risk.

There is still a downward pressure on polyester filament.

Under the influence of global stock market futures and crude oil, polyester products prices also began to fall.

Polyester filament yarn, today's Tongxiang mainstream POY big factory quotations down 200 yuan. Semi gloss POY75D/72F reported 6050 6250150D/144F. Another POY factory in Tongxiang lowered its quoted price by 250 yuan. Half light POY75D/72F newspaper 6410150D/288F 6260, flat 6360. The price of a DTY factory in Xiaoshan dropped by 100 yuan. Half light 75/72 light network 9050, 75/144 light network 9250100/144 light network 8550300/96 low elastic 7150.

International oil prices continued to plummet, while US oil fell to its lowest level in 18 years, and PX also fell sharply. In addition, in the down market, the downstream and terminal factories are more cautious in filling positions, and the production and sales data in the near future are relatively general. Therefore, there is still a certain downward pressure on the polyester filament in the short term, and we are concerned about the trend of raw materials and the development of overseas public health events.

Cotton prices plummet

In the near future, Zheng cotton futures were phased out of the industry, breaking down with the market news, of which the ICE main contract fell below 60 cents / pound, and the main cotton company lost 12000 yuan / ton integer mark, creating a new low of four years. At present, Zheng cotton is mainly affected by macro factors, including the upgrading of foreign public health events and the collapse of foreign stock markets. Affected by the fall of Zheng cotton, spot prices follow up. According to Zhuo Chuang, as of March 17th, the 2005 contract of zhengmian main contract closed at 11560 yuan / ton, and the average price of China's 3128B grade lint (public weight) spot was 12419.3 yuan / ton, and the main base of cotton was 859.3 yuan / ton now.

As the basis continues to widen, textile enterprises at a low price, procurement costs fell more than 1000 yuan / ton before the holiday. According to Zhuo Chuang research, in March 9th, there were cotton textile enterprises boldly priced for cotton near the limit of 12100 yuan / ton, but on the 13 day, Zheng cotton was down again, and cotton spinning enterprises held more cash. Only a few textile enterprises and trade enterprises had a price tag near the limit of 11690 yuan / ton. According to Zhuo Chuang, at present, the price of the 3128 units in the northern Xinjiang is 12200-12500 yuan / ton, and the base price of the 2005 contract point is 600-800 yuan / ton, down nearly 1500-1800 yuan / ton before the Spring Festival, and the decline is more than 10%.

Cotton prices shock down, cost reduction

Recently, affected by poor orders, raw material prices, and rapid accumulation of inventory, some cotton stocks with high stock prices began to yield 100-500 yuan / ton. Some of the stocks with lower stock prices were still relatively strong. Compared to people with continuous price cuts, cotton yarn price ratio decreased. According to Zhuo Chuang, the trade relations between China and the United States improved in October 2019, and cotton prices continued to rise. Since December 2019, cotton yarn has risen by 1000 yuan / ton, and the price has continued until after the Spring Festival. On the contrary, the price of cotton yarn and polyester cotton yarn has continued to decline since September 2019. In March, the price of cotton yarn continued to drop by 700 yuan / ton, and the price of cotton yarn dropped by only 100-200 yuan / ton. Due to the obvious fall in the price of substitute products, some enterprises are willing to adjust the proportion of yarns.

To sum up, in the short term, foreign public health events are still in the outbreak stage, foreign trade orders are suppressed, cotton yarn orders are not good, cotton yarn stock has accumulated to more than 1 months, the price of superimposed raw materials is down by 1500 yuan / ton, and cotton yarn support is weakened. With the rapid accumulation of inventory, cotton yarn price will drop or fall, and some of the supply will be tighter or more resistant. In the short term, it is suggested that the cotton varieties with larger inventory will be allowed to make profits if the market is in line with the market, and the price of the stocks with lower inventory can be temporarily stable.