The Impact Of The Two Quarter Of The Brand End And Manufacturing End Is Still Evident. The Annual Impact Of The Epidemic Is Restricted From The Annual Report Of The Hong Kong Stock Market.

The world's largest stock market has suffered four consecutive fuses, and the economic and social sectors of the world are facing or already undergoing a halt test. The global production chain and supply chain have also been partially disconnected and face more uncertainties. In the near future, XTEP International , China Lee as well as Tianhong textile And other Hong Kong stock textile and apparel companies have disclosed their annual reports. The conference will make an outlook on the first quarter of this year and its future development.

Brand clothing:

Selling at a discount for sale, Q1 retail is down 30%-40%, Q2 is expected to remain in effect.

Retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats and needle textiles fell by 31% over the same period of 1-2 months, showing an unexpected cliff breaking fall, which is in line with the recent disclosure of Hong Kong stock companies.

With XTEP International For example: in sports subdivision area, superimposed three years of reform results release period, XTEP in 2019 annual / single Q4 retail growth over 20%, in January 2020, the peak season before Spring Festival also maintained more than 20% of retail growth, but since February, the impact of the epidemic has been sliding 80%/40% from February to March, the discount rate decreased from 7-7.5 to 5.5-6.5, and channel inventory rose from 4-4.5 to 5-5.5 Months. As the absolute value of sales in January was the highest in the first quarter, it declined significantly in 2 and March, but on the whole, the company expects retail sales to decline by 25%-30% in the first quarter. At the same time, from the point of view of agent support, the company adopts measures such as allowing agents to exchange goods (Q1 goods for Q3 goods, and reducing Q3 production), discount subsidies for 51 or 618 promotion, and temporarily extending the total agency account period for 1 months, which will bring certain pressure to subsequent quarterly revenue and profit performance.

And from men's faucet China Lee In 2020, the company's retail sales continued to grow in 2020, down by 90% in February and 7-8 in March. The company expects Q1 retail sales to fall by 40% or more, and it will be able to recover 5-6 sales in April, which is more affected than XTEP. We believe that it is related to the smaller proportion of electricity providers in sales (XTEP accounts for more than 7-8 of XTEP's sales report).

XTEP and Li Lang are the two leading representatives of the industry. Their fundamental changes are representative: in March, although most Brand Company's 8 shops are already open, but the passenger flow is still recovering slowly, it is difficult to resume the sales level in the same period in 2019 before May. At the same time, most enterprises will take the Q1 product return rate and allow the Q3 products to be replaced. Goods and reduce the way of Q3 production to reduce the pressure of dealers and their own stocks. It is expected that the brand clothing reports will be negatively affected by the epidemic in the first three quarters of 2019. But due to the low base of 2019Q4 warm winter plus Spring Festival, 2020Q4 is expected to achieve a relatively good growth.

Therefore, we judge the overall demand for clothing domestic demand in 2020 as follows: The first quarter fell 30%, the two quarter fell 15%, the three quarter was flat, the fourth quarter has a certain growth.

Manufacturing end:

The global epidemic is spreading, and the impact of export demand will be gradually reflected in Q2.

The manufacturing side was mainly affected by the delayed production capacity in March. From the point of view of exports, exports of textiles and clothing totaled $29 billion 800 million in 1-2, down 21.8% from the same period last year.

After March, with the outbreak of the global fermentation, the overseas demand market was faced with: 1. Many large international events were postponed. Most of the brands represented by 2 and Nike announced that they temporarily closed the retail stores in the world's key epidemic areas. 3, the overseas electricity suppliers developed less well than the domestic ones. It is expected that most overseas apparel retail outlets will have a pressure level of Q2 at the same level as the domestic Q1 level. Most of the textile export countries in China are in the epidemic area. It is estimated that the overall export market will also face a downturn of about 30% in the 3-6 month. Exports will account for more than 30% of the total exports in 3-6 months, plus 1-2 lower in the month of 20%. Even if exports resumed in July, the export of textile and clothing is expected to decrease by 15% in the whole year. Up. However, the situation affected by enterprises will vary according to customer structure and product category.

The writer is an analyst at Soochow Securities Institute. Ma Li, Chen Tengxi, Lin Jichuan, Zhan Luyu / Wen