Recent And Long-Term Plans For China'S Textile And Apparel Trade Under The Impact Of The Epidemic

The scale of the outbreak is large, and the change is so wide that it is beyond imagination. The US stock market triggered a four degree fusing mechanism, triggering great turbulence in the global financial market. Although the main cause of stock market turbulence is another, we can be sure that the epidemic has become an important fluctuation in the non-equilibrium state of the scientific revolution, the fourth industrial revolution, the industrial wave (Kang's cycle) and the financial crisis. The biggest black swan will affect the global society and economy. Can the structure move from the chaos (chaos) to the new pattern structure and order.

In 2000, Dominic - Gu Wei Li (France) published a book, facing the Southeast Asian financial crisis which happened just now, and the Internet revolution, the virtual economic bubble, the consumptive dematerialization, the anti mainstream fashion, the lack of dress symbol, the industrial transfer, and the loss of the manufacturing industry in the developed countries, and many other shocks, and interrogate the fashion industry at the crossroads: "fashion does not die?" (China Textile Press, 2009 Chinese version)

Compared with the more complicated and perplex 20 years ago, the textile industry must examine the impact of the epidemic from an omni-directional and multi-dimensional perspective, and actively respond to the long-term planning precise strategy. China is a major textile manufacturing and trading country in the world. The future development and response of China's textile trade under the epidemic situation is the first question to answer.

The direct impact of the current epidemic on China's textile and clothing trade

Like aviation, tourism, catering, entertainment and film and television industry, the textile and garment industry has suffered a direct blow. As a global long industrial chain and labor-intensive industry, the textile and garment industry has been damaged more deeply, and the short-term recovery is more difficult and complicated.

The international textile and garment trade has declined: the epidemic has spread to the world, and the main production and market centers of the world's fashion have become epidemic areas. The financial crisis triggered by the outbreak and the global economic downturn have led to a decline in international textile and clothing trade and export orders. Textile production and trade enterprises have been in trouble.

The industrial chain is blocked and restart is still sometimes: textile and clothing are long industrial chains, and the timing of starting and downstream industries is different. They are mutually tied up, enterprises start up difficultly, and supply chain coordination is more difficult. This makes the garment industry a low turnover rate and a slow normalization industry.

Economic system constraints: outbreak isolation is an effective means, but the economic halt, triggering a series of reactions: production and manufacturing, circulation disruption, workers' abnormal unemployment, income decline, bringing additional pressure to the poverty alleviation task, financial and financial fluctuations, business operation capital chain is difficult to continue, these factors are fetters each other, so the industry as soon as possible. Recovery, in addition to the effective application of enterprises, also requires the coordination of other industries and the government's very policy.

The recent Countermeasures of textile and garment industry: facing the direct impact and destruction of the epidemic, China's textile and clothing have shown great pressure resistance. At present, we mainly strive for the time and strength to complete the existing orders, make delivery as soon as possible, reduce losses, maintain customers, play the foundation and advantages of "dual", accelerate the promotion of intelligent manufacturing, industrial Internet, Internet of things, big data, industrial cloud and so on, reduce labor demand, combine online and offline demand, so as to reduce dependence on physical distribution, distribution and retail channels.

We should seize the urgent needs of the epidemic to meet the demand growth of functional textiles such as medical protective clothing and respirators, expand or transfer production capacity, speed up the development and marketization of new functional materials and products, support domestic epidemic prevention strategies, and help global epidemic prevention. Expand the development of high-tech professional health care products and the civilian market after the epidemic.

Powerful enterprises are pressing the pause button, and for the industry 4, the new retail starts to wait for the warm-up, grasp the upgrading of equipment technology, expand the development and storage of new products. In order to seize the rebound of the internal and external market after epidemic, we should grasp the change of consumers' lifestyle and fashion consumption concept and orientation, and develop healthy, safe functional outdoor, home, leisure and intelligent wearable fashion products. The house mode has not yet ended, and some outdoor fashion products have been sold on the electronic business platform to the storehouse, which is a signal.

Long term impact of the epidemic on China's textile and clothing trade

We are in the superposition of multiple cycles. If the new epidemic spreads globally, if the new global financial crisis is expected to happen on schedule (about ten years), then the global recession, the sluggish market and the fall of world trade will become the biggest challenge facing the world textile industry. The long-term negative impact on China's textile trade will be great.

This is reflected in the simultaneous fluctuations of world textile trade and financial cycle: in 1998, the financial cycle in Southeast Asia (formerly the US stock market crisis in 1987), the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 and the global stock market shock that are taking place usually lead to a decline in the growth of China's global textile and apparel trade (see chart).

The SARS in 2003 reduced the number of customers and orders in the Canton Fair by more than 30%, but at that time world textile began to recover, but also because of China's accession to the WTO in November 2001, the termination of the MFA (multi fibre agreement) in 2004 and the cancellation of quotas. China's textile industry is on the rise, with trade volume and growth both at a high level, and the impact of the epidemic is not reflected in export growth.

The global financial crisis triggered by the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, the negative growth of global textile trade in 2009, and the recession of textile trade almost permeated for seven years. The textile export industry of China appeared the negative growth for the first time in 2015. Therefore, before the outbreak of the epidemic and the emergence of the new financial crisis, the world economy and the global textile trade have been on the decline. Complex international political and economic factors, especially the trade war, Chinese textile industry has already suffered great external pressure. Therefore, the plight of the new crown disease to the world and China's textile trade is grim.

On the other hand, the global spread of the epidemic will highlight the resilience of China's textile and garment industry and its ability to face the possible financial crisis. China will once again become an important force in self redemption and save the global crisis. The epidemic also proves that the global textile industry can not be divided, and the Chinese textile and garment industry will consolidate and enhance its leading position in the world textile industry, depending on China's textile epidemic. Is it possible to deepen the sustainable and high-quality development strategy?

Long term strategy of China's textile trade

Take the "one belt and one way" initiative as a strategy to optimize the layout of domestic industry. The establishment of a new core area, inclusive growth with the countries along the border, including the establishment of a new global fashion community with developed countries, Italy and France.

Take the "entering Expo" as an opportunity. The introduction of advanced equipment, technology and high-end fashion products of textile and clothing will promote the upgrading of industry and consumption, adhere to a balanced trade policy and give full play to the comparative advantages of China's textile and clothing industry.

Further promote and enhance the social responsibility of textile and garment enterprises. We should strengthen actions and actions in green environmental protection, clean production and poverty alleviation, and build healthy and prosperous economic and industrial ecology, synchronize industrial upgrading and social upgrading, and improve industrial core competitiveness.

With innovation and technology to empower China's textile comprehensive competitiveness, and from runner to leader, leading the fashion industry's sustainable growth. The World Bank report has proved that labor cost is still one of the main factors in the growth of the clothing industry, but innovation factors provide 2/3 of the driving force of clothing growth ("the way to success in clothing", translated by the world bank, Yang Yixiong). The epidemic also shows that the low cost model that relies solely on labour is fragile and unsustainable.

The global ecosystem of fashion industry. The industrialization and modernization of fashion has been over 250 years. If the invention of sewing and assembly line has been over 100 years, the design and innovation of fashion industry dominated by industrial capital will be centered on the developed countries. Fashion industry moves from developed countries to developing countries and less developed countries. Fashion trade is essentially driven by market and buyers in developed countries. This order and pattern look very beautiful. However, developed countries benefit from technology trade brand superiority and world factory low cost products on the one hand. On the other hand, the trend of trade protectionism and anti globalization is constantly being torn apart, provoking antagonism and decoupling.

The "epidemic" proves the inalienable nature of global fashion from the opposite side, and exposes the dilemma of unilateralism, protectionism and authoritarianism. The new fashion strength and new regional centers after the epidemic have emerged to form a fashionable home for sharing and creating common prosperity, as well as a fashion community featuring equality, mutual benefit, coordinated development and mutual benefit. The worst hit area is the global fashion manufacturing center, as well as traditional fashion centers such as Italy, France, Spain and the world's high-end fashion and scale market centers. This is also a metaphor.

32 peach blossoms outside the bamboo, the Spring River Plumbing duck prophet.

Every time economic fluctuations and crises are first reflected in the textile industry: the first economic downturn is the textile market trade, and the revival and prosperity of the textile industry is the earliest. Most textile enterprises are small and medium-sized, and the cost of entry and exit is small. Therefore, during the economic turmoil, a group of enterprises absorbed the destructive energy of their own transformation with their own transformation, while the normal economic growth, the increasing world population and per capita income, and the vigorous endogenous innovation in the textile industry provided sustained impetus for growth, and the textile industry was a stabilizer and buffer for economic development. Equalizer and accelerator.

Therefore, when the global epidemic is still spreading, China's fashion industry should first do its best, eliminate backward production capacity, abandon obsolete technology and products, seize the business opportunities of the new technology functional textile market, work steadily to meet the needs of the market, fill the vacancies in the international market, stabilize the foundation, speed up the transformation of new technologies, and seek new growth points in the fashion industry. Speed up intelligent manufacturing, Internet of things, industrial Internet, 5G, cloud technology and so on to fashion B end and C terminal empowerment, create new elements such as intelligence and information to replace physical capital, labor and other traditional elements. Take the "one belt and one road" as the fulcrum, enter the Expo as the entrance, build a new connotation and new pattern of the global fashion industry, and create a new version of China's fashion.

Author: Gu Qingliang, executive director of Institute of textile economics, Donghua University