China'S Shipping Boom Index Fell To 62.95 Points In The First Quarter, A Record Low.

In March 31, 2020, the Shanghai International Shipping Research Center issued the China Shipping boom report in the first quarter of 2020. The report shows that China's shipping industry has suffered serious setbacks due to the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. China's shipping prosperity index has dropped to 62.95 points and has entered a relatively sluggish interval. China's shipping confidence index is only 39.05 points, and has fallen to a severe recession. China's shipping prosperity index and confidence index have reached a new low, and China's shipping industry has entered a low ebb.

1 the prosperity of shipping enterprises has declined sharply.

In the first quarter of 2020, the prosperity index of shipping enterprises was 63.51 points, down 49.79 points from the previous quarter, and the confidence index of shipping enterprises was 32.85 points, a sharp decline of 73.24 points compared with the previous quarter, and fell to a severe recession. Judging from the various operational indicators, the transport capacity of enterprises has been significantly reduced, the utilization rate of the shipping space has been greatly reduced, the freight revenue has been greatly reduced, and the operating costs continue to rise, leading to a sharp decline in corporate profits. The increase in corporate loan liabilities and the decrease in labor demand have reduced the willingness of the shipowners to invest in transport capacity, but the liquidity is still relatively abundant, and the financing of enterprises is relatively easy. It has a certain ability to resist risks.

The boom of dry bulk shipping companies continued to decline. In the first quarter of 2020, the dry bulk transport enterprises' prosperity index was 56.67 points, down 38.97 points from the previous quarter, from a weak recession to a relatively sluggish interval, and the confidence index of dry bulk shipping enterprises was 21.33 points, a sharp decrease of 63.85 points from the previous quarter, and entered a relatively heavy recession. The overall operation of dry bulk shipping enterprises is not good enough, and entrepreneurs' confidence in market operation is seriously insufficient. The reduction of the transport capacity of enterprises, the reduction of the turnover rate of ships, the serious decline in unit freight rates, the continuous increase in operating costs, the sharp reduction in corporate profits, the increase in corporate loan liabilities, the decrease in willingness to invest in transport capacity, the tighter liquidity, the relatively difficult financing of enterprises, and the continuous reduction of labor demand.

Container transport business prosperity and confidence index are at a record low. In the first quarter of 2020, the prosperity index of container transport enterprises was 64.27 points, down 64.73 points from the previous quarter, and fell to a relatively sluggish interval. The confidence index of container transport enterprises was 23 points, a sharp drop of 88.14 points compared with the previous quarter, and entered a relatively heavy recession. Business sentiment and confidence index dropped to the lowest point in history, and the operation of enterprises declined sharply. Industry's overall development confidence is seriously insufficient. From the various operational indicators, the transport capacity of enterprises has declined, and the utilization rate of enterprises has decreased significantly, and the level of freight prices has also declined. Meanwhile, because of the sharp rise in operating costs, the profits of enterprises have deteriorated rapidly. Although the liquidity of enterprises is still relatively abundant and the financing difficulty of enterprises is relatively low, the loan liabilities have increased, labor demand has been greatly reduced, and the capacity of enterprises has been greatly reduced. Investment willingness has also dropped sharply.

2 China's port business is at its lowest level.

The first quarter of 2020, the port business climate index was 63.73 points, a sharp decline compared with the previous quarter, entered a relatively sluggish interval, port enterprises operating conditions are generally poor; port enterprise confidence index is 49.77 points, the same quarter fell sharply compared with the previous quarter, fell into the more severe recession, port entrepreneurs on the overall operation of the industry expressed concern. From the various operational indicators, the throughput of ports has dropped significantly, the utilization rate of berths has also declined significantly, the port charges have decreased, while the operating costs have risen, and the profits of enterprises have declined. Although the liquidity of port enterprises is relatively ample and the financing difficulty of enterprises is reduced, the assets and liabilities of enterprises have increased, the demand for labor has decreased, and new berths and machinery have been added. Investment is declining.

3, shipping service enterprises have entered a relatively recession period.

In the first quarter of 2020, the prosperity index of shipping service enterprises was 61.42 points, down 36.57 points from the previous quarter, and fell from a weak recession to a relatively sluggish interval. The confidence index of shipping service enterprises was 36.61 points, down 67.32 points from the previous quarter, and fell from the micro economic zone to a heavy recession. The prosperity index and confidence index of shipping service enterprises have fallen below the prosperity line. The overall operation of shipping service enterprises is poor, and entrepreneurs lack confidence in the development of the industry. Judging from the various operational indicators, the operational indicators of shipping service enterprises have all declined, the business cost of enterprises has been kept high, the volume of business and business fees has declined sharply, the profits of enterprises have declined sharply, the liquidity of enterprises has been tense, the financing difficulty has been increasing, and the loan arrears have been increasing continuously, resulting in a sharp decline in the demand for labor, and the willingness to invest in fixed assets continued to decline.

42020 quarter second quarter forecast

China's shipping industry will remain depressed. In the second quarter of 2020, China's shipping prosperity index is expected to be 93.26 points, 30.31 points higher than the current quarter, and a weak recession. China's shipping confidence index is expected to be 60.31 points, up 21.26 points from the current quarter, and into a relatively recession.

The business situation of shipping enterprises is still serious. According to China's shipping prosperity survey, in the second quarter of 2020, the shipping business prosperity index is expected to be 95.40 points, up 31.89 points compared with the current quarter. The confidence index of shipping enterprises is expected to be 58.92 points, 26.07 points higher than that of the current quarter, and the prosperity index and trust index of shipping enterprises are still under the boom line. On the whole, it is estimated that the shipping business in the second quarter of 2020 is still in a state of worry. Entrepreneurs are still lacking in confidence and have a wait-and-see attitude toward the future.

The deterioration trend of Chinese port enterprises will be basically checked. According to China's shipping prosperity survey, in the second quarter of 2020, the port business climate index is expected to be 97.68 points, 33.95 points higher than the current quarter, and a weak recession. The business situation is still not optimistic. The confidence index of port enterprises is expected to be 73.18 points, up 23.41 points over the current quarter, and fall into a relatively low recession. Overall, the deterioration trend of Chinese port enterprises will be basically checked, but port entrepreneurs are still worried about the future development of the industry.

The operation of shipping service enterprises will continue to be explored. In the second quarter of 2020, the prosperity index of shipping services enterprises is expected to be 85.98 points, 24.56 points higher than the current quarter, and a relative recession period. The confidence index of shipping service enterprises is expected to be 49.28 points, up 12.67 points from the current quarter, and entered a relatively heavy recession. On the whole, the prosperity index and confidence index of shipping service enterprises are still below the boom line, and shipping service entrepreneurs predict that the overall situation of the industry is still pessimistic, and the confidence of entrepreneurs is still insufficient.

5 nearly 60% port and shipping enterprises fell by over 20%

Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, most enterprises in China stopped production and delayed production, resulting in a sharp decline in shipping demand and a sharp decline in business volume. According to China's shipping prosperity survey, only 10.36% of the business volume is basically flat compared with the same period in previous years, 11.55% of the business volume decreased by 10% compared with the same period in previous years, 19.12% of the business volume decreased by 10%-20% compared with the same period in previous years, while the business volume of 20% of the enterprises accounted for nearly 60%, of which 24.30% of the business volume decreased by 20%-30% compared with the same period in previous years, 17.53% of the enterprises. The volume of business decreased by 30%-40% compared with the same period in previous years, while the remaining 17.13% of the volume of business decreased by more than 40% compared with the same period in previous years. Among the surveyed port and shipping enterprises, the volume of business of ship transport enterprises was the most serious, with 35.64% of the business volume falling by more than 30%, followed by shipping service enterprises, and 30.77% of the enterprises whose business volume fell by more than 30%, while the port enterprises with a business volume of 30% or more were only 9.09%, and the short-term impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on shipping market was more obvious.

6 nearly 60% of the port and shipping enterprises returned to over 90%.

Since the initial control of the new coronavirus pneumonia situation has been preliminarily controlled, it has been the focus of the whole society to promote the orderly resumption and resumption of production. According to China's shipping prosperity survey, 38.89% of the enterprises have completely resumed work, 20.63% of the enterprises have 90%-95% recovery rate, and nearly 60% of the enterprises with a recovery rate of more than 90%; the remaining 15.08% of the enterprises return to work rate is 80%-90%, 10.32% of the enterprises return to work rate is 70%-80% 10.32% of the enterprises returned to 50%-70%, while only 4.76% of the enterprises with a recovery rate of less than 50%. Among them, 42.57%, 54.55% and 22.73% of the ship transportation enterprises, port enterprises and shipping service enterprises have been fully restored to work.

7, more financial and financial policy support is needed.

The outbreak of the new crown pneumonia has caused great impact on the shipping industry, and the shipping market has entered a low level. The continuous operation of the enterprises is facing serious challenges. The enterprises urgently hope that the state and local governments will give policy support to all sides in order to ease the business difficulties faced by the enterprises. According to China's shipping prosperity survey, 30.54% of enterprises hope to get financial and financial policy support such as reduction / reduction of taxes and fees, 21.11% of enterprises hope to get the policy support of operation cost reduction in related links, 17.22% of enterprises hope to get the policy support for streamlining the approval process, and 15.57% of enterprises hope to get a suspension of the implementation of low sulfur oil scheme on China's ships. Policy support, 13.77% of enterprises hope that the government can give enterprises support for epidemic prevention materials.