New Crown Outbreak Caused Resonance In Grain Prices, Planting Industry, Agricultural Products Reverse Attack A Shares Led

According to Xinhua News Agency reported on March 31st, the food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said that the new crown pneumonia epidemic in the global spread, resulting in labor shortages and supply chain disruption, may affect food safety in some countries and regions.

According to the official website of the food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, "unless we take prompt action to protect the most vulnerable sectors, ensure that the global food supply chain is unobstructed and alleviate the impact of the spread of the epidemic on the entire food system, we are faced with the risk of a food crisis approaching."

The capital market is a foresight. Since March 20th, the domestic stock and futures markets have seen a gradual rise in agricultural products.

Among them, the SW planting industry and agricultural products processing sector rose by 12.2% and 9.8% respectively, and Jinjian rice industry rose by 73.13%. The cumulative increase was in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market, with more than 3800 stocks and second stocks.

In contrast, the futures market is relatively rational. Although grain futures have also risen during the same period, the overall increase is obviously lagging behind that of soybeans and corn, which are more supportive of supply and demand. Especially in March 31st, grain futures such as japonica rice and japonica rice fell down collectively.

Multiple factors to promote agricultural products counterattack

In March 20th, soya (domestic soybean) futures contract settlement price of 2005 yuan was 4327 yuan / ton, and by March 31st, it had hit a new high of 4947 yuan / ton, while soybeans two (imported soybeans) and soybean meal prices rose.

"Compared with imported soybeans, the rise of domestic soybean is more obvious." Liu Sikui, an agricultural product analyst at Central Plains futures, said.

There are two reasons for this. First, the futures soybean futures started from the 2005 contract, and the delivery rules were adjusted. For example, the quality standard, protein content and related storage requirements of the delivery were improved, which made it difficult for the poor quality domestic soybean to enter the delivery link.

As far as futures are concerned, the improvement of delivery quality also means the premium of futures prices.

The second is the increase in the price of China's grain storage for domestic soybean. According to the business news, starting from March 25th, China's grain storage directly under the poplar tree store acquired the new national soybean GB three and so on in 2019, and the price of warehousing was 2.2 yuan / kg on the same day, equivalent to 4400 yuan / ton.

"The rise of futures value, the rise in the price of State purchasing and storage, and the reduction in the number of imports to Hong Kong have promoted the upward trend of soybean prices," he said. Liu Sikui said.

Li Bing, an agricultural product analyst at the business association, also pointed out that "due to the impact of the epidemic, the cost of domestic soybean logistics has increased significantly, and the price of vegetables has increased, which has also contributed to the increase of terminal bean products consumption."

Corn which is partially coincident with soybean terminal is also driven by "replenishment" of downstream aquaculture industry.

Take every breeding listed company as an example, the raw materials inventory period is about 40 days. In early March this year, it gradually entered the key point of inventory digestion.

It is noteworthy that the strong price of soybeans and corn also led to the resonant upward movement of the entire agricultural sector.

In March 20th, the settlement price of 2009 contracts for japonica rice futures was 3358 yuan / ton, and the highest price on 30 days has risen to 3700 yuan / ton. In the same period, the settlement price of the japonica rice 2007 contract rose from 2752 yuan / ton to 3039 yuan / ton.

Earlier, countries such as Kazakhstan and Vietnam have announced restrictions on the export of agricultural products, such as Vietnam, which has suspended the signing of new rice export contracts.

However, due to the high self-sufficiency of the domestic market, some countries' export ban has little effect on the domestic market.

"Overseas markets are affected by the epidemic, and trade flows may be significantly affected, leading to price movements in domestic agricultural products and grain futures to follow up." Liu Sikui said.

Grain stocks speculation logic to be falsified

The impact of the increase in agricultural products has further been transmitted to the stock market and has become a haven in the current lack of hot spots.

According to statistics, in from March 20th to 31st, two industries of SW food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery led the Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities. Further subdivision, grain and oil processing, grain cultivation, seed production three sub sectors rose 29.43%, 14.17%, 13.6% respectively.

Among them, the performance of Jinjian rice industry is the most outstanding. During the same period, the cumulative increase reached 73.13%, second only to the 76% of space long peak, ranking second in Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities.

According to public information, Jinjian rice industry is the first national leading enterprise in agricultural industrialization. Its main products are rice, flour, noodles, vegetable oil, rice flour and so on.

Although the price of futures of Japonica Rice and indica rice has increased, it is reflected that at the level of listed companies, the logic of the two level market speculation and the rise of the company's profitability is not true.

First, the proportion of Cereals, Oils and foodstuffs accounts for about 57.54%. Other income also includes trade in agricultural products, pharmaceuticals, dairy products and so on, with limited business concentration.

"The main income is mainly rice and oil, and its income is relatively small." Jinjian rice industry Securities Department feedback 31 days.

Secondly, the price of edible oil is closely related to the futures price, but rice is an important livelihood material, and the price of terminal market will not go up too much.

"From the beginning of the epidemic to the present, the company's products have not risen in price, and the company's risk warning announcement also mentioned that the production and operation situation is normal." The above Jinjian rice industry people said.

Liu Sikui also believes that from a stable market perspective, if domestic grain prices continue to rise, domestic prices will be stabilized by dumping and storing.

From the inventory point of view, China's rice and wheat stocks are huge. In the past few years, what has been worrying is how to speed up the updating of inventory turnover.

In the context of no price adjustment, which can not be converted into real incomes and profits, is the continuous surge in the price of the two tier market reasonable?

In fact, from the evolution of the hot spots in the whole two level market, it also shows the characteristics of capital speculation and plate rotation.

In fact, in late March, the top ranked plate was not the grain stocks, but the washing machine sector, which rose by 38.16% during the period. The consumption of other dairy sectors, such as dairy products, seasoning products, beer and so on, also followed the grain stocks.

In contrast, the semiconductor, lithium, and integrated circuit plates, which led the festival, fell 22.25%, 12.99% and 12.07% respectively, leading to two cities in Shanghai and Shenzhen.

So far, the whole process is very clear. Under the background of the decline of the original market main technology stocks, funds began to concentrate their firepower on more theme and storytelling grain stocks and constantly push up their stock prices.

However, how to face up to the related companies' earnings reports in the future? Or, they do not care about these numbers at all.