Recovery Of The Property Market "South Strong North Weak": Transaction Volume Recovery 70% Part Second-Hand Housing Price Upgrades

The real estate market is also recovering with the gradual control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic.

Data released by a number of agencies show that in the first quarter of this year, the volume of new and second-hand housing in hot cities was lower than that in the same period last year, with a drop of more than 30%. 3 in mid and late June, the signs of market recovery are more obvious. At present, the total transaction scale has been restored to about 70% of the previous level.

From a regional perspective, the "south strong North weak" situation is more obvious, the Yangtze River Delta region has the greatest recovery, and the "Beijing Tianjin Hebei" region is relatively weak.

According to the research of various agencies, the transaction price is slowly rising in addition to the resumption of trading volume. In the new housing sector, the previously offered price concessions are being phased out. In the secondary housing market, the proportion of price rises is increasing, and the price increase in some cities has reached 15%.

Market regulation policy frequency increased by 65% over the same period last year

Shell Research Institute released data show that in the first quarter of 2020, the total number of new home transactions and transaction area in 66 large and medium-sized cities nationwide were 42 million 470 thousand square meters and 370 thousand sets respectively, down 28.6% and 30.7% respectively.

Among them, the decline of the first tier cities is relatively large, reaching 40%. The number of transactions in second tier cities fell by 34.9% compared with the same period last year, and the turnover area decreased by 31.7% compared with the same period last year. The three or four line cities were relatively less affected, the number of transactions fell by 17.1% compared with the same period last year, and the area of transactions fell by 15.6% over the same period.

Second hand housing transactions have also been greatly affected. In the 18 cities covered by chain home real estate, volume decreased by 39.2% in the first quarter of 2020, down 44.6% from the same period last year. "The current quarterly turnover is the lowest in the past five years."

Shell Research Institute pointed out that the impact of the epidemic caused a "V" trend in the market, and in March this year, the market began to recover obviously. In twenty-first Century, a report released by a number of agencies in the economic report found that in March this year, the volume of new and second-hand housing in key cities has recovered to around 70% of the same period last year.

According to the statistics of Shell Research Institute, in the secondary housing market, the recovery rate of the Yangtze River Delta region is obviously higher than that of other cities, and the pace of recovery is more consistent. Among them, the turnover of three cities in Shanghai, Nanjing and Hangzhou in March has significantly exceeded the level of December before the epidemic, and is now restored to 75% of last March level.

In the central and western regions and the Hong Kong and Macau Bay area, the volume of second-hand housing in March was close to the level in December last year. The two cities are Chengdu and Guangzhou. By contrast, the degree of recovery in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei was relatively weak, and turnover in March was about 62% of the level in December last year, representing 40% of the same period last year.

The recovery of the new housing market is also evident. In March this year, the 22 new cities monitored by the China Index Institute grew 351.59% in the new home transaction area, which is now close to 70% in the same period last year.

The recovery of the property market is not only related to the gradual control of the epidemic situation, but also by a series of support policies issued by governments at all levels. Centaline pointed out that in the first quarter of this year, governments at all levels issued 171 property control policies, up 65% from 104 times in the same period last year.

The agency said that although some cities were halted due to the large extent of loose binding, many cities have stimulated the market by lowering the threshold of settlement, increasing supply and delaying the payment of land transfer fees, and have stabilized market expectations very well.

Many respondents showed that in some cities with weaker epidemic situation, the number of second-hand housing market increased significantly, and the attention of new housing market was also rising. The market is expected to recover fully in the second quarter of this year. Although some areas have already seen the phenomenon of "grabbing houses", it is hard to see a retaliatory rebound in the overall market.

Insufficient driving force for housing prices

As the market recovers, housing prices also show signs of rising. Many housing enterprises confirmed to the twenty-first Century economic report that from March, with the opening of sales offices and the increase of customers, some projects began to cancel the previous discount measures. But so far, there is no obvious price increase.

In the second-hand housing market, although the price is generally relatively stable, sporadic price increases have begun to appear. According to the tracking data of 58 Anju Real Estate Research Institute, in the first quarter of 2020, the second hand housing listing price of the three deep tier cities in North China was broken through (break through 50 thousand yuan / m2), of which the prices of Shanghai and Shenzhen were higher than that of the same period last year.

The aforementioned agencies said that the number of second-hand housing listing prices of some hot second tier cities rose significantly, while the second-hand housing prices in Ningbo, Wuxi and Suzhou rose by about 15% over the same period.

Second hand housing transactions are often regarded as the leading indicators of the market. Does the rising price of second-hand housing mean that the whole market will usher in a wave of price increases?

58 Zhang Bo, director of the Research Institute of Anju real estate, told the twenty-first Century economic report that although the market is recovering, the current volume is not enough to support the rise in housing prices. From the perspective of new housing market, most housing companies are trapped in the pressure of capital chain and will not rush to raise prices.

It is learnt that with the market access to the downstream channel, from the second half of last year, new housing and second-hand housing market has been reduced prices. During the new crown pneumonia outbreak, the capital chain was under pressure due to the stagnation of transactions, and some of the housing prices were on sale online.

Xu Xiaole, chief analyst of Shell Research Institute, also believes that the majority of second-hand housing transactions in most cities in 120 days, indicating that the market has not regain enough heat, the price is difficult to get enough support.

Xu Xiaole said that from the perspective of demand structure, after recent years of regulation and baptism, the current demand for the real estate market is mainly based on demand for first-time home ownership and improved home ownership. This demand is more sensitive to price changes, and it is difficult to support the sharp rise in housing prices.

Housing prices also remind people that in the market recovery period, it is easy to panic buying property, and lead to partial regional market overheating. In the current situation of frequent deregulation of the property market, we should do well in anticipating management and avoid irrational fluctuations in the market.