The Textile Industry Under The Influence Of The Epidemic: Live On The Short Line, And Look At The Industrial Chain For A Long Time.

At present, with the important effect of epidemic prevention and control, the textile and garment enterprises in the whole country are speeding up the resumption of production and production except Hubei Province, but the export weakness is still a direct problem before the textile industry.

Related experts say that the export of textiles is blocked and the domestic market is needed. In the short term, online live broadcasting is one of the good ways, and in the long run, it is the key to improve the industrial chain and supply chain.

Market: export blocked, domestic strength

According to the analysis of China Textile Industry Economic Research Institute, the export situation of China's textile industry is more severe due to the weakening of external demand and the increase of trade environment risk. According to China Customs data, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China in 2019 was 280 billion 700 million US dollars, down 1.5% from the same period last year, the growth rate was 5.3 percentage points lower than that of the previous year, but it was 0.8 percentage points higher than the three quarter of 2019.

Wang Hua, chief researcher of the textile industry "one belt and one way" international cooperation center of Donghua University, compared the impact of SARS and new crown pneumonia on China's textile and clothing exports in 2003.

The time of outbreak of the first, second outbreaks is different from that of the epidemic. The impact of the outbreak is much greater than that of SARS on the economy and society. Second, the export environment is different when the outbreak occurs. Under the Sino US economic and trade frictions in 2019, the US market is already the third place in China's export market, while Japan is the fourth place, but there are also outbreaks in the US and Japan. Third, the basic conditions of textile and garment export are different. Sino US friction, the Chinese textile and garment industry transfer overseas, the cost of production factors rise, the demographic dividend gradually disappears and other unfavorable factors appear. Therefore, in 2020, we will face the test of a more complex environment.

Tianfeng securities analysis teacher Zhang Xiang said that due to the impact of the epidemic, consumer behavior has changed, consumer demand has been suppressed for a short time, which has a greater impact on the lower end of the clothing brand line.

In 2020 1~2, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China totaled 52130 billion yuan, down 20.5% compared with the same period last year. The total retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats and needles and textiles were 153 billion 400 million yuan, down 30.9% from the same period last year. Recently, as the epidemic prevention and control achieved important results, the stores under the line began to gradually resume work, and demand began to gradually recover. In addition, due to the impact of the February Spring Festival and the delay in the resumption of work, the yarn and cloth output of textile enterprises in February decreased by 41% and 39% respectively, down 32% and 27% respectively compared with that of the previous year. If the influence of the Spring Festival factor was excluded, the actual impact on output could be estimated at around 70% under the influence of the epidemic.

From the point of view of production enterprises, according to the tracking data of China Cotton Association, at present, the average operating rate of the cluster is around 70%, of which the above scale enterprises have basically resumed work, with an average operating rate of more than 85%, and below the scale of enterprises, the recovery rate is above 60%. With the further promotion of the resumption of work and the improvement of the epidemic situation, it is estimated that the operating rate of enterprises will continue to rise.

However, Bai Ming, deputy director and Research Fellow of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said that resuming work and resuming production did not mean stable foreign trade. With the continuation of the epidemic, the difficulty of stabilizing foreign trade will extend from the resumption of production on the supply side to the market development on the demand side, and the premise of market development is whether foreign customers are willing to continue to import from China. Moreover, unlike the outbreak of the outbreak, the hot spots of the outbreak are no longer focused on China, but are being accelerated in some countries such as Korea, Japan, Italy, Iran, France, Germany and the United States. Not only are the breakpoints of the international industrial chain increasing, but these market demand prospects are also uncertain, which are unavoidable.

Bai Ming believes that in this case, in addition to the more effective implementation of stable foreign trade in the maintenance and expansion of customer channels, if necessary, we also need to retreat in order to actively expand the domestic market, combined with the upgrading of consumption. In the era of economic globalization, the domestic market can be regarded as the "market of China" in the global market. Through deep ploughing the domestic market, domestic enterprises, especially some light textile enterprises, can leave "green hills" under the worsening external environment. Once the international market situation improves, these enterprises will have more opportunities to take the lead in the recovery of the international market.

Channels: new live online

For the textile industry, a strong domestic market needs good channels, and online live broadcasting has become an important choice.

Recently, the Beijing culture and Tourism Bureau has issued special tips on e-commerce, education, medical, training, finance, tourism, gastronomic, sports and chatting. It does not need to apply for the "network culture operation permit". It points out that the live broadcast of e-commerce is not a network performance, and it does not need to apply for the "network culture operation permit". The industry believes that relaxing the terms of the license can reduce unnecessary audit links, attract more content hosts to share online, is conducive to the booming industry dividend.

In March 21st, Taobao broadcast first opened the innovative way of the official group cargo "ten thousand people group". The price of goods was as low as seventy percent off. Offline brands, online shops and entities were all involved in the activities, which led to double daily turnover. Haitong Securities analyst Wang Liting said that this combination of "live + discount + multi brand" online group buying way for Taobao Department has opened up more consumers with brand awareness and price sensitivity.

? ? ? Similar to Taobao's "live Shopping Festival", jitter business will be jointly launched by the end of April with hundreds of brands and hundreds of vibrant people to start the first live broadcast business Carnival in 2020 - "shaking in good things day". The event will be divided into five major venues: the super main venue as the core position, the setting up of live announcement, value store, fashion beauty, home appliance branch, covering fashion, makeup, home, Three industries disappear quickly.

Yu Xuhui, an analyst with Changjiang Securities, said that under the background of the new crown pneumonia epidemic situation, shoes and clothing enterprises have stepped up the layout of online channels and realized the transfer of sales from offline to online. Direct broadcast, as an obvious means of traffic dividend, platform policy tilt and better performance, plays an important role in this process. It has no two.

Yu Xuhui said that in terms of the number of brands involved, textile and clothing have become the first category of live broadcast of e-commerce. Clothing products such as non-standard products, SKU richness, product version, fabric texture and multi type wear are difficult to display in traditional graphic mode. They can be effectively alleviated through multi-dimensional live display, strong interaction and authenticity. From the point of view of the effect, direct broadcast can achieve effective sales promotion, and its conversion rate is also significantly higher than that of non live broadcast.

Looking forward to the future, Yu Xuhui believes that the clothing direct seeding business will be the trend of the times, and it is expected to show two directions: on the one hand, the rise of the live broadcast mode has once again provided the traffic bonus. Under the platform policy support, the brand with strong direct seeding business operation capability and strong back-end supply chain capability is expected to benefit. On the other hand, direct seeding electricity providers are not only selling goods, but also realizing the functions of quality guidance, sales capacity enlargement, multi-channel access and efficient management of members.

Trend: the integrity of industrial chain and supply chain is the key.

During the epidemic prevention and control period, domestic enterprises rapidly expanded the production capacity of health protection products and Southeast Asian textile enterprises were worried about the limited supply of raw materials, all of which illustrated the importance of building a complete industrial chain. China is a large country of textile production and consumption, and has built a complete industrial chain. The professional division of labor in various links of the industrial chain has formed many textile industrial clusters, showing the characteristics of individual decentralization and regional concentration.

Yu Xuhui said that in the Internet dividend stage, the perfect industrial base and relatively inefficient traditional management mode provided opportunities for new industry participants. The new industry participants will launch cost-effective products to seize market share by docking high-quality production capacity and compressing circulation level, representing enterprises including opening shares and Antarctic electricity providers. In order to match differentiated consumption demand and enhance sales transformation, Internet companies have also proposed C2M strategy to upgrade the efficiency of industrial chain through digitalization, informatization and flexible transformation, such as many new brand plans and Ali factory marketing system.

In addition, from the perspective of industrial structure change, the garment industry has accelerated to Southeast Asia, and China's textile product trade path has shifted to indirect exports. In 2018, Vietnam's textile and clothing exports accounted for 2.2% and 6.3% of the world's trade share respectively, up 1.1% and 3.4% respectively compared with 2010, and the share of clothing exports increased significantly. Meanwhile, Vietnam's textile imports from China accounted for about 44.9% in 2017, up 11.7% from 2010. Vietnam has achieved rapid growth in garment export through labor and tax dividends, but its dependence on China's textile industry has also improved significantly.

Yu Xuhui said that from the perspective of business stability, upgrading of industrial structure and balanced development of the economy, the layout of the textile industry chain in Southeast Asia is the general trend. The advantages of domestic enterprises with overseas production capacity are obvious.

How to improve the industrial chain and supply chain of Chinese textiles?

Wang Hua said that this is actually one of the proposition that China's textile manufacturing power is heading for a strong textile manufacturing nation. The examination of the global epidemic will inevitably require China's textile industry chain and supply chain to have the ability of global quick response and the ability to respond.

First of all, Sinopec and other central enterprises should take the lead in increasing investment in scientific research, further cooperate with universities to carry out industry university research cooperation, carry out research on original technology and hard core technology oriented to industrialization, and universities should weaken the assessment mechanism for publishing papers in SCI papers, adjust the allocation mechanism of scientific research funds, overcome academic formalism, and allow researchers to calm down and engage in scientific research and encourage researchers. The writer writes the paper in the practice of original technology research and industrialization and truly improves the ability of technological innovation.

Secondly, under the condition of artificial intelligence, we should fully develop global related demand and consumption big data technology, industrial Internet of things technology under Beidou satellite navigation technology, and plan for layout in the countries and regions along the "one belt and one road" to establish material reserves and production bases. In particular, we must seize the opportunity of 5G application this year to further optimize the digital transformation and supply chain process of China's textile manufacturing global industrial chain.

Third, adjust relevant disciplines and cultivate talents at all levels. The combination of first-class discipline construction and Chinese textile technology innovation will provide talent support for China's textile manufacturing powerhouse.