Polyester Market Forecast: Thinking Of Polyester Downstream After Frantically Stockpiling Goods

Recently, the polyester market has finally seen a frenzy. People from other industries such as downstream traders, weaving factories and even the rest of the society have joined the "bottom up" army. Polyester filament, polyester chip and staple fiber have been selling for many days, especially polyester filament. The overall inventory has dropped to a reasonable level. Polyester chips and staple fiber manufacturers have been oversold, and polyester factories have taken the opportunity to rise. The increase is as high as 300-400 yuan / ton. Next, Xiaobian makes a simple imagination for later stage.

First of all, let's straighten out the background of the "bottom up". Before the festival, the cash flow of polyester products has shrunk dramatically. In particular, the polyester filament enterprises have reduced the amount of nearly 1000 yuan / ton in 10 days due to their stock pressure from height, and the transaction price has been historically low, and the cash flow has been reduced to -300 yuan / ton. In addition, the continuous production and sales volume of polyester enterprises has been continuously increasing in the face of continuous rising oil prices and favorable news. Looking at polyester chip products alone, before the "bottom up", the cash flow is less than 100 yuan / ton, the price has been stable for many days, the inventory early release is good and other favorable support, continue to explore bottom support thrust is insufficient, in the dolly good and bad game, multi fund influx to participate in hoarding goods.

Crude oil production and overseas demand recovery are the main support for the game. From a short-term perspective, once the crude oil production is substantially positive, the probability will drive short-term PTA and ethylene glycol rise, and polyester products are expected to rebound for the second time. If the idea of rebound is to be judged, because the overseas epidemic still has room for fermentation, the downstream demand is still weak. More importantly, the news of oil production reduction has been overdrawn to a certain extent, and the intensity of the rebound will be very limited. The sale of the polyester plant in recent days has not been shipped out in time. Most of them are still in the stock of their own enterprises, but they are unable to produce the relevant documents to the downstream. Most of them require 10 days or so to pull away, otherwise they will charge warehousing fees and difference fees. Then we will postpone the time until mid April. At that time, even if the oil is good enough, most of the crude oil has dissipated, and there is no turning point in the overseas epidemic. The processing plant has 2 options: short term selling or storage of its own warehouse to store long line quotations.

So, if the short term dumping is in the middle of April, the profits will still be there, but it will strike a blow for the polyester enterprises. The low price goods will be poured out one after another. Once again, the real price of the market will be lowered, and the price of the polyester will not be stable. If we consider the operation of the middle and long lines, after May and June, once the demand is warm, the polyester market will be pulled up. But considering the cost of its labor and warehousing, the profit is not expected to be optimistic.

Up to now, traders still hold many empty notes, which is enough to indicate that there is still a chance to replenish goods in the lower reaches. The progress of overseas public health events is still the leading factor in the long term market. In the first half of the year, we should not be too optimistic about the market quotation, and timely stop loss realisation is still the king's way.