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Changes In Prices Of Ethylene Glycol Before And After Ching Ming Festival

2020/4/9 11:30:00 90

The OPEC+ conference became the focus of the market. The United States said Saudi Arabia and Russia will slash crude oil production. Saudi Arabia called for an emergency meeting of OPEC+. The market renewed the hope of joint production cuts. The international crude oil market staged a wave of inflation before Qingming Festival. However, with the delay of the meeting, traders still had doubts about the prospect of production reduction. After the follow up of ethylene glycol related products, the fundamentals are weak and support is insufficient, and the market turnover is down.

Changes in the upstream and downstream data of ethylene glycol before and after Ching Ming Festival

?	?	2020.4.2	2020.4.3	2020.4.6	2020.4.7	Ratio of front to back	Front to back ratio
exchange rate	RMB	Seven point zero nine nine five	Seven point one one zero four	Seven point one one zero four	Seven point zero nine three nine	-0.0056	-0.08%
crude oil	Brent oil	Twenty-nine point nine four	Thirty-four point one one	Thirty-three Point Zero Five	Thirty-one point eight seven	One point nine three	6.45%
	WTI oil	Twenty-five point three two	Twenty-eight point three four	Twenty-six point zero eight	Twenty-three point six three	-1.69	-6.67%
	China SC	Two hundred and seventy-six point five	Two hundred and eighty-five	?	Two hundred and ninety-five point eight	Nineteen point three	6.98%
naphtha	Naphtha	One hundred and seventy-six point five	Two hundred and four point five	Two hundred and three point five	One hundred and ninety-eight point two five	Twenty-one point seven five	12.32%
naphtha	Nap Crack	-43.26	-45.87	-39.09	-35.68	Seven point five eight	17.53%
ethylene	CFR Northeast Asia	Four hundred and eighty	Four hundred and fifty	Four hundred and fifty	Four hundred and ten	-70	-14.58%
ethylene	CFR Southeast Asia	Four hundred and fifty	Four hundred and twenty	Four hundred and twenty	Three hundred and eighty	-70	-15.56%
MEG Goods in stock	MEG Dollar	Three hundred and ninety-one	Three hundred and eighty-four	Three hundred and eighty-four	Three hundred and ninety-four	Three	0.77%
MEG Goods in stock	MEG Goods in stock	Three thousand two hundred and ninety-five	Three thousand three hundred and eighty	?	Three thousand three hundred and thirty	Thirty-five	1.06%
PTA Goods in stock	PTA Dollar	Four hundred and twenty	Four hundred and twenty	?	Four Twenty	Zero	0%
PTA Goods in stock	PTA Goods in stock	Three thousand one hundred and sixty	Three thousand and two hundred	?	Three thousand three hundred and twenty-five	One hundred and sixty-five	5.22%
MEG futures	Two thousand and five	Three thousand three hundred and fifty-eight	Three thousand three hundred and thirty-seven	?	Three thousand three hundred and seventy-three	Fifteen	0.45%
	Two thousand and nine	Three thousand five hundred and thirty-nine	Three thousand five hundred and twenty-four	?	Three thousand five hundred and sixty	Twenty-one	0.59%
	EG05-09	-181	-187	?	-187	-6	-3.31%
	Basis	-63	Forty-three	?	-43	Twenty	31.75%
PTA futures	Two thousand and five	Three thousand three hundred and eight	Three thousand three hundred and fifty-two	?	Three thousand four hundred and two	Ninety-four	2.84%
	Two thousand and nine	Three thousand four hundred and twenty-two	Three thousand four hundred and sixty-two	?	Three thousand five hundred and sixteen	Ninety-four	2.75%
	TA05-09	-114	-110	?	-114	Zero	0%
	Basis	-148	-152	?	-77	Seventy-one	47.97%
polyester	Semi optical section	Four thousand two hundred and fifty	Four thousand and three hundred	?	Four thousand five hundred and fifty	Three hundred	7.06%
	PET bottle flakes	Five thousand and one hundred	Five thousand one hundred and fifty	?	Five thousand three hundred and fifty	Two hundred and fifty	4.90%
	One point four Direct spinning polyester and short	Five thousand two hundred and seventy-five	Five thousand three hundred and twenty-five	?	Five thousand and eight hundred	Five hundred and twenty-five	9.95%
	Direct spinning semi gloss POY 150D/48F	Four thousand six hundred and twenty-five	Four thousand and eight hundred	?	Five thousand three hundred and fifty	Seven hundred and twenty-five	15.68%
	Direct spinning semi gloss FDY 150D/96F	Four thousand nine hundred and fifty	Five thousand one hundred and seventy-five	?	Five thousand seven hundred and fifty	Eight hundred	16.16%
	Polyester DTY 150D/48F low elastic	Six thousand three hundred and twenty-five	Six thousand five hundred and twenty-five	?	Six thousand nine hundred and fifty	Six hundred and twenty-five	9.88%
Shipping in main reservoir area	MEG	Seven thousand	Seven thousand and fifty	?	Six thousand and four hundred	-600	-8.57%
Port inventory	MEG	One hundred and twelve point zero six	?	?	One hundred and fourteen point zero nine	Two point zero three	1.81%
Operating rate	MEG	66.14%	64.13%	?	59.86%	-6.28%	-9.50%
	PTA	84.48%	85.81%	?	85.81%	1.33%	1.57%
	polyester	78.52%	78.52%	?	79.63%	1.11%	1.41%
Production and sale data	Polyester filament production and marketing	122.02%	232.85%	?	35.70%	-86.32%	-70.74%
	Production and sale of PET staple fiber	222.18%	200.68%	?	58.67%	-163.51%	-73.59%
	Polyester chip production and marketing	92.73%	78.79%	?	79.09%	-13.64%	-14.71%

Source: lung Chung

Market performance:

From the above table, we can see that ethylene glycol follows the trend of upstream crude oil and naphtha as "V" trend. Ethylene slowly follows a downward trend. Downstream polyester products have been depressed for a long time, and prices have risen sharply. Take polyester filament as an example. Due to the downturn of the polyester industry chain, it will be difficult to stimulate the steady delivery of goods from 2020 to April, and raw materials inventory and cost inventories are high. However, the release of crude oil before Qingming Festival was a good signal, which once stimulated the downstream to pick up the goods, and the market was hot. The stock of polyester filament decreased from 35 days in the early days to about 27-28 days, and the stock of short fibers dropped from 10-11 days to 8-9 days. After the festival, the market information was uncertain, accompanied by the withdrawal of funds, and the downstream production and sales declined rapidly.

Return to reality:

Since 2020, the profits of ethylene glycol enterprises have been squeezed. Coal enterprises have already suffered serious losses. After a quarter of a year, they began to reduce their losses and stop repair and avoid risks. Up to now, 68.61% of the oil production started, 42.85% of the coal started up, and the supply volume decreased significantly after entering April, but the port stock has been divided by the storehouse stage. At this point, downstream polyester production enterprises because of double high inhibition, load up and down in 78.29%, improve power shortage. When the market is weak, ethylene glycol rises difficultly, and the fundamentals have been exhausted by time. It is also hard to fall.