Behind The "False Prosperity" Of Polyester Factories, There Are Still Crises.

The international crude oil market experienced a dramatic week last week.

Under the stimulation of crude oil, polyester market is red, and polyester filament has finally bottomed out under the favorable conditions of all parties. Especially for FDY products, the single day price rose 400 yuan / ton, the biggest single day increase since 2012. The rest of the products also have different levels of room for improvement.

However, after the first day of the festival, the style of painting swept away.

Fuel demand is weakening due to the increasing supply of crude oil and the coronavirus pandemic, and investors are becoming more cautious about the expectation that the world's major oil producing countries will soon agree to cut production. International crude oil has slump sharply.

As of 7 days closing, WTI crude oil main contract closed at 23.63 U.S. dollars / barrel, fell 9.4%, Brent crude oil main contract closed at 31.87 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 3.6%.

On the 8 day, the commodity futures market weakened as well.

On the PTA side, the 2009 main contract of the PTA main force of Zheng Shang was closed at 3506 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day, which dropped by 14 yuan / ton, or 0.4%.

In terms of ethylene glycol, the 2005 contract of the main business of ethylene glycol in big business was closed at 3369 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day, it dropped by 12 yuan / ton, or 0.35%.

The crude oil market has been subject to the news. After crude oil slump, the 8 day opened slightly higher. It is clear that crude oil is uncertain in the near future and has been in a shock pattern. Crude oil plays an important role in indicating the trend of the polyester Market in the downstream.

With polyester prices, polyester production and marketing for 3 consecutive days breaking 100, breaking before the hovering around 5 of the strange circle. The outbreak of production and marketing is not only because the price of polyester has opened up, but also the mentality of the weaving market has changed.

1. polyester price rebounded, purchasing is just replenishment.

The purchasing strategy of raw materials for downstream weaving factories has always been with purchase and purchase since last year, and it just needs to be purchased. In particular, after the continuous opening of the polyester filament downstream channel, market confidence is obviously under pressure, "buy up or not buy" mentality is more prominent. In addition, the weaving market has been very poor recently, the rate of withdrawal is higher, the production and marketing are difficult to be leveled, and the stock of grey fabric is constantly accumulating.

After the year, production and marketing have not been high, weaving factories have not hoarding goods, raw materials inventory itself is not high, and the price of polyester has finally started to rise after falling for several months, which naturally stimulated the demand for raw materials for weaving factories.

2. there is speculation. Is the time of the bottom time?

The price of polyester filament has been affected by crude oil, PTA and MEG, and for a long time, the collapse of crude oil caused the price of PTA and MEG to drop. Upstream costs are not good, polyester prices fall bottom line do not know where.

The price of polyester has refreshed its low level for nearly 10 years. Now, under the impetus of PTA and MEG, the price of polyester has bottomed out. Many weaving manufacturers and traders think that the time of the bottom time has arrived, and they begin to craze for storing materials, resulting in 3 days, and even polyester production and sales exceed 1000%! At this price, in addition to its own needs, there is also a phenomenon of making a profit at the low price of raw materials. This shows that the price of polyester at present has reached the lowest point in most market people. It is considered that this is a very suitable time to collect the bottom.

Although the polyester filament seems to have ended the situation of falling and falling for nearly half a year, a few days ago, production and marketing continued to break up 100%, which boosted the current market confidence. But now the production and sales are still falling down. It is still based on the fact that the basic pattern of polyester is still weak, and the uncertainty of the crude oil market is bigger. Therefore, we can not ignore the crisis behind polyester.

The stock is still high.

The most important thing to ignore is polyester stocks in polyester factories. According to the statistics of China's silk net, the overall stock market of polyester market is concentrated in 32-43 days. In terms of specific products, POY stocks are stored for 26-33 days, FDY stocks are close to 27-34 days, while DTY stocks are about 32-43 days.

Although at the time of good production and marketing, the polyester plant went to some stocks, but compared with the backlog of inventory before, the two day inventory can be regarded as "drizzle", and there is no substantial change in the overall inventory. At the same time, the load of polyester filament in polyester plant is about 75% at present. It is not a low position. If the production and sale of polyester can not keep up with output, then the stock of polyester will continue to increase, and the price will not continue to rise.

The weaving Market is difficult to pick up.

For the current market situation, the vast majority of enterprises in addition to shaking their heads is a sigh. Especially in the foreign trade market, most enterprises have almost stopped. And from foreign trade to domestic trade, it is very difficult now in this downturn. Foreign trade orders are frequently cancelled, and domestic demand is also hard to revive.

Take the Guangzhou Zhongda cloth market as an example, as one of the largest textile distribution centers in the country, it is also suffering from the impact of the epidemic. One of the shopkeepers said that no matter whether it was busy online or offline, customers had to queue up. Spring was very prosperous, whether it was foreign trade or domestic sales. But the recent shortage of people is not too much, and the opening week is almost empty, with almost no passenger traffic.

It can be said that the current situation of China University market is also the current situation of the national textile material market. The fabric market demand is extremely atrophy, the order follow-up is not enough, which directly led to traders' demand for grey cloth, and then affected the market of weaving Market. If the price of weaving Market is difficult to improve, even if the price of polyester is stronger, it will eventually face a situation of no market price.

The rise of polyester in recent days and the continuous breaking of production and marketing, if not based on substantial demand, can only be said to be a "false prosperity" phenomenon.

On the 8 day, there was a light atmosphere in the factories of Jiangsu and Zhejiang. The production and sale of the mainstream factories was only about 20-40%.