Import And Export Of Textiles And Garments In China In 2019

In 2019, China's textile and garment industry faced more risks and challenges: the world economy is still in the deep adjustment period after the global financial crisis, the recovery is slow, the trade growth rate has slipped, the global unilateralism and trade protectionism prevailed, Sino US economic and trade frictions have been repeated repeatedly, and domestic economy is facing adjustment and downward pressure. Export enterprises should not only continue to bear the difficulties of rising costs, exchange rate fluctuations and market demand, but also accept all kinds of new challenges: the United States will impose large and high tariffs on China's products, so that China's export to the largest single external market will decline. Its spillover effect will further accelerate the adjustment of industrial transfer and industrial chain, and form a negative exemplary role. Our competitors will take more trade remedy measures to our country.

Under multiple pressures, in 2019, China's textile and garment industry's manufacturing and foreign trade performance was not satisfactory: the profits and investment of manufacturing enterprises were reduced, and foreign trade declined. According to the report of the China Federation of textile industry, in 2019, the operating income of textile enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% compared with 2018, the total profit decreased by 11.6%, and the completion of fixed assets investment in the whole country decreased by 5.8%. According to customs statistics, foreign trade volume, export volume and import volume of textile and clothing in China in 2019 decreased again from 2017 to 2018.

From 1 to December 2019, China's textile and clothing trade volume was 296 billion 550 million US dollars, down 2.2% from the same period (the same below). Among them, exports amounted to US $271 billion 890 million, a decrease of 1.9%; imports amounted to US $24 billion 660 million, a decrease of 5.8%; the cumulative trade surplus was US $247 billion 230 million, a decrease of 1.5%. In 2019, China's textile and clothing import and export showed the following characteristics.

Characteristics 1: the first three quarters of the monthly export volatility trend is obvious, the end of the year "tail up" to help rebound.

In the first three quarters of 2019, China's textile and clothing exports showed obvious fluctuations in the Sino US economic and trade frictions, and the situation of monthly export growth and decline alternated until August. From 9 to November 2019, as the United States extended tariffs to key commodity clothing and household textiles, exports continued to decline for 3 consecutive months. Quarterly, the export volume of the first three quarters of 2019 decreased, with the largest decline in the third quarter, reaching 3.2%. The import volume was negatively affected by the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the obstruction of downstream exports and the decrease in demand, which showed a negative growth in all quarters of the year and a decline of two in the third quarter. At the end of 2019, the import and export volume rebounded substantially in the first month of the Sino US agreement. The export volume increased by nearly 8% and the import volume increased by 3.8%. The export volume in the fourth quarter of this year increased by 0.8% and the import volume dropped to 2.6%.

Characteristics two: general trade exports accounted for a breakthrough of 80%, and the leading role of private enterprises was further enhanced.

In 2019, China's textile and clothing general trade exports amounted to US $218 billion 780 million, a mere 0.45% decline, and export accounted for 80% of the total, reaching 80.5%. The negative pulling effect on the overall export of textiles and clothing was mainly the processing trade (16.1%) and the border trade (10.5%), accounting for 8.2% and 4% respectively. Since the second half of 2018, the trade in bonded areas has gradually increased. The export of goods in the bonded area and the import and export trade in bonded areas have increased. The total growth in the second half of 2018 has increased by 1.1%, compared with 9% in the first half of 2018. At the beginning of 2019, the State Council promulgated some opinions on promoting the high level open and high quality development of the comprehensive bonded zone, and put forward some guiding opinions on promoting the comprehensive competitive advantages of the bonded areas such as improving policies, expanding functions, cultivating industry matching and business environment, and further promoting the growth of the trade in the bonded area. In 2019, the total export volume of textiles and clothing was 6 billion 920 million US dollars through the bonded area warehousing and transshipment goods trade and the import and export cargo trade of the bonded zone warehouses, an increase of 28% over the same period last year.

The overall leading role of private enterprises is further apparent. The proportion of textile and clothing exports continued to improve: in 2019, the total export volume of private enterprises was 196 billion 680 million US dollars, which accounted for 72.3% of the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China, accounting for 1.3 percentage points higher than that in 2018. The export of textile and clothing of private enterprises has increased: the growth of export volume is 0.3%, the only type of enterprises that achieve growth; the export volume of state-owned enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises decreased by 5.3% and 8.4% respectively during the same period. The number of entrepreneurs continued to grow: in 2019, the total number of private export enterprises reached 9.4, representing an increase of more than 6600 in 2018.

Characteristics three: the three traditional markets have negative effects on exports, and the countries along the belt continue to become new growth points.

EU: multiple factors have led to a lack of market momentum, and clothing exports continue to decline.

The slow growth of the economy, the delay of Britain's "off Europe", the sluggish German manufacturing industry and trade frictions with the United States caused the EU market to remain depressed. In the four key export markets of China's textiles and clothing, it is the most difficult to expect the EU market to pick up. In 2019, China's textile and apparel exports to the EU totaled 47 billion 250 million US dollars, a decrease of 4.7%, of which 1% of textile exports and 6.1% of key export garments. The export volume of large category needles and woven garments has been continuously reduced since 2015, down by 3.6% (about 250 million pieces) in 2019, and the export average price dropped by 3.4%.

Britain's "delaying Europe" delayed the market uncertainty. In 2019, China's textile and clothing exports to the UK continued to decline, a drop of 7.4%, larger than the overall decline in exports to the EU.

According to the statistics of the European Union statistics bureau, in 2019, the total value of imports and exports of textiles and clothing from the EU was 136 billion 820 million US dollars, down 1.4%. Among them, imports from China amounted to 44 billion 470 million US dollars, down 3.1%, and imports from ASEAN and Bangladesh increased by 3.7% and 2.1% respectively.

Us: trade friction has a serious impact on exports, and exports are the biggest drop in 10 years.

The United States is China's largest single export market for textiles and clothing. Its huge volume and sustained and stable market demand have always been the "stabilizer" and "ballast stone" of China's textile and apparel exports. In the 10 years from 2009 to 2018, the scale of our textile and clothing exports to the United States continued to expand, with an average annual growth rate of 7.1%. Since the US launched trade frictions in 2018, the good situation has been broken, and Chinese manufacturers and exporters have been seriously affected. In 2018, due to the levy duty time in the second half of the year, the products were limited to textiles and a very small number of clothing products, and the early export of enterprises had not seriously affected the export of the whole year. In 2019, the US side intensified its efforts to raise the tariff rate of 200 billion US dollars (mainly textiles) from 10% to 25%. It also imposed a 15% tariff on China's exports of key commodity clothing and household textiles to the United States (the first phase of Sino US agreement reached at the end of 2019, and the agreed list List 4A and List). The levy rate of 4B products was reduced to 7.5% and 0 respectively, resulting in a serious decline in exports of textiles and clothing to the United States in the year. The total export volume to the US was 45 billion 210 million US dollars, down 7.7%, the largest decline in the past 10 years. Among them, the export volume of textiles decreased by 9.1%, the export volume of clothing decreased by 7.1%, and the total export volume of needle woven garments of commodities decreased by 5.5%, and the export average price dropped by 1.8%.

As of December 31, 2019, the office of the United States trade representative issued a total of 7 tax exclusion lists for us $200 billion tax products, including 26 10 HS tax rates for textile and clothing products, which accounted for a very low proportion of US exports to the United States.

According to the statistics of the US Department of Commerce, in 2019, the total import of textiles and clothing from the United States amounted to 122 billion 700 million US dollars, an increase of 0.04%. Among them, imports from China amounted to 40 billion 140 million US dollars, down 9.2%; imports from ASEAN, India and Bangladesh increased by 8.2%, 4.4% and 9.1% respectively.

ASEAN: ASEAN's positive role in maintaining export growth, and signs of initial change in the market structure.

ASEAN is at a relatively mature and stable stage of development in the areas that undertake the transfer of China's textile industry. Through the integration and collaboration with China's industries, the transition from single downstream products processing to the production of upstream products has gradually made the bilateral trade relationship between China and ASEAN closer. In 2019, bilateral trade in textiles and clothing reached 46 billion 380 million US dollars, an increase of 2.9%, of which China's exports increased by 2.3% and imports increased by 6%, which were better than the overall level. The yarn and fabrics of key export commodities increased by 1.7% and 4% respectively, and the export volume of garments decreased.

The market structure of ASEAN countries presents new characteristics: Vietnam, which has shown prominence in previous years, has begun to restrict the textile industry's local investment because of its nearly saturation of its domestic industry. In 2019, the export volume of China's textile and clothing exports to Vietnam decreased by 6%, of which the export volume of key commodity yarn fabrics remained 2.7%, but the growth rate was significantly smaller than that in 2018. Vietnam's share of China's textile and clothing exports also declined from 5.8% in 2018 to 5.5%. At the same time, other ASEAN countries, such as Philippines and Indonesia, will further expand the construction of the local textile industry and speed up the capacity to undertake spillovers between China and Vietnam.

Japan: exports to Japan are smaller than the EU and the United States, and clothing export prices are rising.

Compared with the European Union and the United States, the Japanese market in 2019 was still relatively stable although it did not recover. The total export volume of textiles and clothing to Japan in the whole year was 19 billion 900 million US dollars, a decrease of 4.67%, less than the export volume to the EU and the US.

In 2019, China's textile exports to Japan amounted to 4 billion 510 million US dollars, down 2%, and clothing exports amounted to US $15 billion 390 million, down 5.4%. As Japan increased its consumption tax again (from 8% to 10%) in 2019, resulting in a further contraction in consumption, the total export volume of China's large category of needles and knitted apparel to Japan dropped by 6.7%. It is worth mentioning that China's export price for Japan's major clothing products has rebounded for 2 years in a row. In 2019, the average export price of knitted woven garments increased by 1.7% over the same period last year, which is better than that of the European Union and the US market.

According to Japan's Ministry of finance statistics, in 2019, Japan's textile and apparel imports from the world amounted to 38 billion 730 million US dollars, down 1.5%. Among them, imports from China amounted to $21 billion 420 million, a decrease of 5.6%, and imports from ASEAN increased by 5.4%.

The global layout has driven the Asian and African markets to keep warm, and the market position of the "along the way" along the line has been further enhanced.

With the recovery of the world's major economies slow and the US tax on our exports, the performance of the traditional market is not satisfactory. But at the same time, along with China's "going global" layout and the speed of industrial transfer, Asia and Africa have become the main areas of positive impact on China's textile and clothing exports in 2019. In those days, China's textile and clothing exports increased by 8.7% and 1.3% respectively, of which the fastest growing single countries were Philippines (6.6%) and Nigeria (37%).

Driven by the "one belt and one way" initiative, the countries along the belt and road have been playing an increasingly important role in China's textile and apparel foreign trade and become a bright spot in China's exports. In 2019, the export volume of China's textiles and clothing to the countries along the "belt and road" reached 98 billion 460 million US dollars, an increase of 3.4%, better than the overall level; the market share rose to 36.2%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points over 2018. Among them, the export growth regions are mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia, South Asia, Western Asia and Central Asia.

China's products account for a significant reduction in the US market share.

Influenced by global unilateral trade and industrial transfer, the share of China's textile and apparel products in the main developed countries continued to decline: in 2019, the share of Chinese products in the EU textile and garment market dropped to 32.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from 2018, and dropped to 55.3% in the Japanese market, down 2.4 percentage points from 2018. In the US market, the share decline was the most serious because of the attack imposed by tariffs, which dropped to 32.7% in that year, down 3.4 percentage points from 2018. Among them, the market share of China's clothing in the United States dropped to 30.6%, down 3.5 percentage points, and the yarn and fabric appeared a decline of decline, accounting for 16.1% and 26.6% respectively, down 12.3 percentage points and 7.7 percentage points respectively. China's market share in the US market is basically filled by competitors from ASEAN, India and Bangladesh. In 2019, the total exports to the United States in these areas increased.

Characteristics four: exports of intermediate products are gradually expanding, and chemical fiber products are negatively affected.

Despite the negative export growth in 2019, there is no change in the improvement of China's textile and clothing export commodity structure. In 2019, the proportion of textile exports increased to 44.2%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points over 2018, an increase of 1% in exports, a decrease of 55.8% in clothing exports and a 4.1% decrease in exports.

With the gradual deepening of the integration with the world economy and trade, China has been the leader and leader of the whole industrial chain in the field of textiles and clothing. In recent years, intra industry trade with all the partners of the world has been developing rapidly, and the proportion of imports and exports of intermediate products has gradually increased. In 2019, the total export volume of China's yarn fabrics was 73 billion 290 million US dollars, and the proportion of total exports increased year by year, from 22.2% in 2014 to 27%, which has increased by nearly 5 percentage points in 5 years. In the case of overall export decline, the total export volume of yarn fabrics increased by 1.2%, mainly driven by fabric growth of 2.4%.

From the analysis of volume and price index, textile export growth mainly depends on quantity expansion, and export prices drop. The decline in clothing exports is characterized by volume and price, and the decline is more obvious. The total export volume of needles and woven garments decreased by 3.1% and export prices by 2.1%.

From the material of yarn, fabric and needle woven garments export products, the export of chemical fiber products ranked first, accounting for nearly half of the total, cotton products accounted for 30%, and wool and silk accounted for about 20%. In 2019, the export volume of all kinds of material products decreased, wool and silk products dropped the most, cotton products decreased by 7.5%, and chemical fiber products were relatively good, with a slight decrease of 0.02%, basically unchanged.

Characteristics five: the export of eastern provinces has been differentiated, and the central region has achieved sustained and stable development.

In 2019, in the case of a decline in the country's overall exports, Zhejiang ranked first in China's textile and clothing exports for third consecutive years, an increase of 1.6%. In the top five provinces and cities of China's textile and clothing exports, the growth was also achieved in Fujian, an increase of 6.4%. Jiangsu, Shandong and Guangdong all declined, with Guangdong's exports declining for 4 consecutive years, with a drop of 9% in that year. According to the regional division, the export volume of textiles and clothing in the central region has maintained a steady growth of 9.1%, of which Hunan, Anhui, Hubei and other places are the main areas to stimulate growth, especially in Hunan Province, and the total export volume in 2019 has increased by 60%. In addition, the export volume of textiles and clothing in the eastern, Western and northeast provinces decreased by 2.2%, 7.6% and 5.4% respectively.

Characteristics six: textile imports and prices fall, clothing imports keep growing.

In 2019, the RMB exchange rate experienced a process of "first appreciation, then depreciation, and two-way volatility". At the beginning of August, the "breaking 7" was at the weakest point close to the 7.2 pass. In 2019, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar has been derogated by 1130 basis points, with a 1.65% reduction. Under the dual pressure of RMB weakening and economic and trade frictions, in 2019, China's textile and clothing imports continued to decline, negative growth occurred for 7 consecutive months from 5 to November, and the annual import volume dropped by 5.8%.

In 2019, China's textile and clothing imports were mainly dragged down by textiles, and textile imports fell by 12.2%. Among them, imports of large categories of yarn and fabric decreased by 13.7% and 14.2% respectively, and the imports of manufactured goods dropped by 6%. From the analysis of volume and price index, the decline of textile imports is the result of the falling of volume and price, and the reduction factor is more prominent. From the perspective of material quality, the import amount of cotton yarn fabrics decreased by 15.8%, higher than that of wool products (15.3%), chemical fiber products (8.7%) and silk products (8.7%).

In 2019, China's clothing imports grew by an increase of 8%. Among them, the large category of needles and woven garments increased by 10.5% from the import price, and the import volume decreased by 2.4%.

The import of intermediate products, especially yarn and fabric, has a significant correlation with the export of textile and clothing in the following year. According to the simple calculation of import and export data in the past 20 years, it is found that the correlation coefficient between the import of yarn and fabric and the export volume of textile and clothing in the next year reached 0.86, showing a more obvious positive correlation. In 2019, the sharp decline in the import of yarn fabrics in China may indicate that textile and garment exports continued to decline in 2020.

Characteristics seven: US cotton imports fell sharply, and the US lost its market position for many years.

In 2019, China imported 1 million 851 thousand tons of cotton, an increase of 17.5% over the same period, which has resumed growth for third consecutive years, and the average import price is 1930 US dollars / ton, down 4.1% from the same period last year. Despite the overall growth in cotton imports in 2019, the monthly growth figures were mainly concentrated in the first half of the year. Affected by the US tax increase, the textile market weakened from 8 to October, reduced downstream demand, reduced cotton imports and imports less than 100 thousand tons per month. From 11 to December 2019, cotton import volume rebounded slightly in anticipation of the good agreement between China and the US in signing the first stage agreement.

Since July 6, 2018, China has implemented counter measures against the United States and imposed a 25% tariff on raw cotton imported from the United States. The import volume from the United States increased by 4.5% in that year. In 2019, the impact of counter measures further revealed that the volume of imports from the United States was only 360 thousand tons, down 32% from a year ago. In the main source of China's cotton imports, the United States quickly lost its leading position for many years, lagging behind the substitutes Brazil and Australia (China imported 505 thousand tons and 398 thousand tons of cotton from Brazil and Australia respectively).

Imported cotton prices for 3 consecutive months higher than domestic cotton prices

China Cotton Association monthly report shows that in 2019, China's cotton policy remained stable, the rotation of cotton reserves was orderly, the import volume increased, the output of cotton was stable and slightly decreased, the market supply was abundant, and the demand for cotton decreased, and domestic cotton prices fell sharply under the influence of external uncertainties. Since May 2019, with the repeated economic and trade frictions between China and the United States, the spot price of cotton has fallen sharply. After that, the price of China's cotton imports and Sino US trade negotiations have been rising steadily. In December 31, 2019, the CC Index 3128B (China's cotton price index) was 13369 yuan / ton, and the average annual price was 14212 yuan / ton, down 10.5% from the same period last year.

International cotton prices have risen. At the end of October 2019, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates for the third time in a year, and the international cotton futures prices rose sharply. At the end of the month, the spot price of cotton exceeded cotton prices in the domestic market, and lasted until the end of 2019. At the end of 12, the FC Index M index of China was 79.47 cents / pound, and the 1% tariff was equivalent to 13724 yuan / ton, which was higher than the 355 yuan / ton of domestic stock in the same period.