Housing Prices In The First Quarter Of The Epidemic Sales: "Price Change" Into Normality

The real estate market under the influence of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has ushered in the worst quarterly performance in recent years.

Zhuge search data research center monitoring data show that in the first quarter of 2020, the sales volume of newly built commercial housing in 60 key cities was about 38 million 920 thousand square meters, down 5 over the same period, and fell by 6 over the same period, the lowest level in the past ten years. Among them, many cities were affected by the epidemic in February, almost no deal.

The quarterly report of listed housing enterprises is coming out under this background. Comprehensive data, the first quarter housing prices sales decline is normal, the decline is mostly at the level of 20%-30%.

In response to the impact of the epidemic, housing prices have generally adopted a strategy of changing prices, but in addition to Hengda and a few other enterprises, most of the housing enterprises failed to restore sales decline.

Recently, with the epidemic being controlled, housing enterprises entered an orderly stage of resumption of work, and the volume of market transactions also picked up. Analysts believe that although the annual sales target of Housing enterprises has generally increased, the gap in the first quarter can be filled, which still needs time to be verified.

"Volume and price drop"

In the first quarter of this year, the sales scale of the "first army" was divided. The sales scale of Vanke, Biguiyuan (equity), and financial innovation were 137 billion 880 million yuan, 100 billion 880 million yuan and 61 billion 760 million yuan respectively, down 7.74%, 15.9%, 22.7% respectively, and the sales area of three housing enterprises also declined in different ranges.

Hengda, which sold online and implemented price concessions strategy, has achieved sales growth. The sales volume of Hengda contract in the first quarter was about 147 billion 370 million yuan, up 23.2% over the same period last year. Contract sales area of 16 million 582 thousand square meters, an increase of about 50.4% over the same period.

Among them, Hengda and Rong Chong sales prices have been significantly reduced. In the first quarter, the average selling price of financial products was 13620 yuan / square meter, down 7.4% compared with the same period last year. The average price of Hengda was 8887 yuan / square meter, with a drop of 18%.

Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the real estate market showed a "V" trend in the first quarter of this year. After a slight decline in the market in January, it dropped to freezing point in February, and since mid March, the market has begun to recover, but it has not yet fully recovered to the same period last year.

Against this background, the sales performance of Housing enterprises is generally lower than that of the same period last year. Shanghai Yi Ju Research Institute statistics show that the first quarter of this year, 100% of the total sales of Housing enterprises around 1 trillion and 628 billion 740 million yuan, down 24.1% over the same period last year.

According to the announcement, in addition to Hengda, Jianye, first opened a few housing enterprises, most of the business sales scale declined, the decline range from single digit to more than 30%. Among them, two to 30% of the decline is more common.

In the large and medium-sized Housing enterprises, sunshine city sold 28 billion 333 million yuan in the first quarter, down 16.77% compared with the same period last year. Xincheng holdings sold 30 billion 981 million yuan, down 33.68% compared to the same period last year; ocean sales 15 billion 520 million yuan, down 30% compared to the same period last year; the sales volume of China Sea was 59 billion 716 million yuan, down 11.7%;

Price reduction has also become a norm. Due to the tight cash flow, many housing enterprises are selling at a reduced price, which results in a situation of "volume and price down". In the first quarter of this year, the average selling price of ocean was 20200 yuan / square meter, down 10% compared with the same period last year. Jinmao, sunshine city and other enterprises selling prices are also significantly lower than the same period last year.

A large housing company in Beijing told the economic news reporter in twenty-first Century that a quarterly report of many housing prices is about to reveal a double decline in revenues and profits.

Industry shuffle acceleration

According to convention, the first quarter is usually the least time of performance contribution. In many housing enterprises' annual sales plan, the proportion in the first quarter is usually around 20%. However, affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, some housing enterprises are far below the planned proportion.

For example, in the first quarter, Austrian Park contracted for 14 billion 300 million yuan, only 10.8% of its annual target. Zheng Rong sells 17 billion 898 million yuan and achieves an annual sales target of 12.78%. Xu Hui's sales target is less than 10%.

Yan Yuejin, director of the think tank center of Shanghai Yi Ju Real Estate Research Institute, pointed out that this is due to the continued increase in sales targets of housing companies this year.

According to Ping An Securities statistics, the average sales growth rate of 30 Housing enterprises in 2020 was 14%. Although the decline was 16 percentage points lower than the 30% increase in 2019, the difficulty of achieving the goal is still great, considering the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic.

The housing companies pointed out that the sales target of the company has been slightly reduced due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. In addition, the allocation of performance in the first half of the year has also been adjusted from original 4:6 to 3:7.

However, this person is optimistic about the future market prospects. He believes that buyers demand for housing is rigid, although it may be delayed, but the total volume will not change much. Therefore, in accordance with the current resumption of re sale, coupled with the introduction of support measures around the market, the market is expected to return to normal in the two quarter.

Shanghai Yi Ju Research Institute pointed out that by March this year, the sales of top 100 housing companies had recovered to 80% in the same period last year. Among them, the leading housing enterprises took the lead in recovery, and the sales of the top ten Housing enterprises have recovered to about 90% of the same period last year.

Yan Yuejin believes that if the market returns smoothly, housing enterprises still hope to finally achieve this year's sales target. However, considering the general stock price, the phenomenon of price reduction is likely to continue, and the profit margins will further decline.

In addition, because of the stronger anti risk ability of the head housing enterprises, the epidemic will accelerate the industry's shuffling and further increase the concentration of the industry.

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