The OPEC+ Conference Came Out Of The Blockbuster! What Is The Impact Of Polyester Industry Chain?

At 22:00 on Thursday in Beijing, OPEC was held as scheduled, and energy ministers from various countries began to hold closed meetings.

After the start of OPEC + conference, sources said that the atmosphere of talks so far was "very positive". Russia's senior sources also claimed that Russia and Saudi Arabia successfully eliminated major obstacles in reaching a new reduction agreement.

CCTV News quoted CNBC as saying that Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to an agreement on oil production reduction and unified oil production to 20 million barrels per day.

As OPEC + conference, crude oil prices fluctuated. As of press time, the international crude oil futures prices fell short, Brent crude oil rose narrowed to 1.98%, WTI crude oil is now up 3.59%, after a rise of over 13%.

According to past experience, the rise of crude oil may increase the price of polyester raw materials. The rising rate of polyester raw materials will drive up the price of polyester filament, and the rise of polyester filament price will lead to the recovery of polyester production and marketing.

Therefore, Xiaobian estimates that under the new round of oil production reduction agreement has been initially achieved, polyester production and marketing will usher in another round of outbreaks, but how long will this outbreak continue?

The spread of the epidemic is hindered by both domestic and foreign trade.

According to real-time statistics of Johns Hopkins University, as of 5:47 Beijing time at 5:47 on April 9th, the total number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the world exceeded 1 million 500 thousand cases, reaching 1504971 cases and accumulative death cases reached 87894 cases. The total number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the United States is the largest in the world, exceeding 420 thousand cases, reaching 424945 cases and 14529 deaths.

In 2019, China's textile and clothing exports amounted to US $271 billion 500 million. When the foreign trade market was affected by the epidemic situation, the textile industry will inevitably encounter more serious overcapacity than in 2019.

Xiaobian has heard one thing. While the current market is not good, some foreign businessmen seize some small defects that are completely negligible on the fabric, demanding that they pay 20 percent off of the original price, or else they will return the goods, while the fabric enterprises can only swallow their words in order to deliver the goods, and accept this obviously unreasonable requirement. For some fabric enterprises, under the current market situation, as long as we can successfully ship out the order, even if we lose a bit, we also recognize it.

While foreign trade has been severely restricted, domestic trade has not been fully restored. When Xiaobian visited the market, it was found that the number of domestic orders did not rise after the start of the year. Most of the orders that had been sold were determined by years ago. The number of new orders was very poor. The fabric of spring and summer was almost stagnant. Some of the fabric manufacturers were prepared to store their spring fabrics as autumn fabrics. To sell.

Insufficient demand, weaving enterprises to reduce operation

Under the condition that both domestic and foreign trade are blocked, weaving enterprises are under tremendous pressure.

In terms of inventory of grey cloth, the inventory of grey fabric weaving in Shengze is about 41-42 days, and the market order has not improved.

Under the pressure of huge grey cloth inventory, lowering construction has become the choice of most weaving enterprises. In the current weaving enterprises, the situation of two shifts is rare, instead of three shifts and four shifts. With the passage of time, if the order situation is still not improving, shutting down production has also been in the business plan.

From the capacity of weaving enterprises, we can see that according to the data monitoring of China's silk net, after the late March, the loom rate of weaving enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces did not rise or fall, but dropped to 72% in April 3rd, and the rate of opening last year was close to 9.

With the continuous decline of the starting rate of weaving enterprises, how much money the weaving enterprises can afford to buy raw materials has become an unknown number.

Beginning in April 2nd, crude oil prices rebounded from low prices, polyester raw materials rose, polyester production and marketing appeared a rare "three Lian Yang". In this wave of market, some of the raw materials purchased are well run enterprises, some of them are more radical businesses, and some are raw materials traders. However, for some enterprises which are conservative in business strategy, there is not a lot of replenishment in practice, but they still keep the original strategy.

If the price of polyester raw materials in the future is driven by crude oil, though it may lead some weaving enterprises to buy raw materials in a short time, resulting in a wave of production and marketing peak, but in the long run, this trend is difficult to extend for a long time.

On the one hand, many weaving companies that want to replenish their products have made up the price of the polyester market that began in April 2nd. Most of the goods that are not replenished are those with more conservative management strategies. On the other hand, both domestic and foreign trade have been greatly affected.

afterword

Crude oil production "big play" finally came to an end, crude oil prices finally got rid of the "price war" haze began to callback, but in the global epidemic situation continues to spread, the world's demand for crude oil sharply reduced, crude oil prices are hard to return to $50 in a short time.

For polyester industry chain, the rise of crude oil may bring a short wave of market. However, how long the market can last after the spread of the epidemic and the terminal demand are greatly suppressed is still unknown.