First Quarter Profits Of Listed Pig Enterprises Surged 4.5 Times, Pig Price Callback "Super Pig Cycle" Inflection Point Approaching?

In April 13th, the sales volume of live pigs ranked third in the state of technology, and on the same day, Wen's shares also fell by nearly 5%.

Although some attributed it to the recent decline in pork prices, the stock concentration of the day's business and its market value were only 0.32% lower.

In fact, pig breeding industry is still one of the most profitable sectors in the first half of the year. Among the 8 companies that have announced performance forecasts, the average increase of 451% in the first quarter was the highest and lowest.

And in the first half of the first year, it is difficult for the head aquaculture enterprises to expand the volume. Even if the price of live pigs has dropped, the drop space is also very limited.

Taking the technology of Zheng bang as an example, the target for the whole year was 9 million -1100, and only 30% in the first half of the year. Liu Chang, chairman of the new hope, also mentioned "2 million in the first half of the year and 6 million in the second half of the year" in the performance note meeting. The target of this year's slaughter is 8 million.

This year, the operation trend of pig enterprises may be the first half of the year to fill the price volume, the second half of the year to supplement the price, ironing the impact of the single quarter price fluctuations, and then achieve steady growth in the annual performance.

Low base and high pig price

The trend of hog prices in the past six months was a record high last October, a decline in November and December, and a rebound in January, February and March in January.

However, as the selling price of hog sold by various listed companies is still at a record high of 30 yuan / kilogram, the whole industry is still in the profit outbreak period in the past quarter.

As of April 13th, the pig market of the top four pig sales companies disclosed the first quarter earnings announcement. Wentworth's net profit is expected to be 1 billion 890 million yuan, and the stock price is expected to be 4 billion yuan. The technology is expected to be 850 million yuan, and the new hope is expected to be 1 billion 500 million yuan.

If all 8 related companies are included in the statistics, the net profit margin for the first quarter of this year will be close to 800%.

This is affected by the low profit base in the same period of 2019. Tang people currently ranked the highest in profit growth, and expected net profit growth of 36 times in the first quarter, while its net profit in the first quarter of 2019 was only 5 million 390 thousand yuan.

Other companies were also similar. In the first 4 quarter of 2019, only hope was profitable, and all others were in a state of loss due to the low price of live pigs in the first quarter.

At the same time, the high pig prices in the first quarter of this year have kept the pig farms' profitability at a relatively high level.

Continue to take the Tang God as an example. Although the company claims to be a hog industry chain integrated operation company, its income from pig business is very low. In the first half of 2019, its pig sales revenue was 281 million yuan, accounting for less than 4%, far less than the 6 billion 438 million yuan income level of feed products at the same time.

In the first quarter of this year, the sales volume of Tang Dynasty god pig was 117 thousand and 500, which was less than 1/20 of the head pig enterprises, but it was enough to enhance the profitability. The company expected net profit of 200 million yuan to 230 million yuan.

When the technology was accepted by the State Science and Technology Institute 12 days ago, a set of data given was worthy of reference.

In the first quarter of this year, the average selling price of live pigs was 35.33 yuan per kilogram. The cost of piglets fattening and slaughtered was about 23 yuan per kilogram. The cost of self fattening pig's hair was about 15.3 yuan / kg, and three expenses and headquarters expenses were around 3.8 yuan / kg, and the profits of piglets were around 880 yuan.

The profit growth trend of listed pig enterprises will continue in the two quarter. The reason is that in June 2019, the whole industry began to break through the break even point, and the two quarter of this year will still enjoy the dividends of last year's low profit base. Two, although the price of live pigs has been reduced recently, there is a limited space to fall back.

"In the two quarter, the scale of pig production may increase, and the demand side is also affected by the epidemic. However, the cost side of piglets, labor and feed has increased significantly, bringing some support. The recent decline in pig prices has narrowed." Li Wenxu, an analyst of business and pig industry, pointed out 13.

? From "price subsidy" to "volume replacement price"

Although the price of pork is going down, the biggest variable now is how long the high pig price will last.

Previously, the industry generally predicted that the nodes in the fourth quarter of 2019 will be significantly increased in the number of pig slaughtered in 7 and August this year.

Perhaps because of the above trend considerations, and superimposed on the impact of new crown epidemic on logistics and terminal consumption, all listed pig enterprises will focus on the second half.

On April 9th, Liu Chang, chairman of the new hope, said in the 2019 annual performance briefing that although the first half of 2 million and the second half of the year 6 million appeared to have a large span, they were ready for the pig farm construction, production and operation plan.

The plan to give out to the institutional investors on April 12 is about 30% in the first half of the year, and about 70% in the second half of the year. There will be a piglet's external sales plan starting from the two quarter.

Although the scale of similar slaughter has not yet been disclosed through public channels, the 13 people also responded that "it is expected that there will be more in the second half of the year".

Data show that the stock of animal husbandry is 2 million 564 thousand in the first quarter of this year, compared with 3 million 77 thousand in the same period last year. Other companies also saw a sharp decline in sales in the first quarter. During the same period, the sales volume of state technology decreased by 37.88%, while Wentworth sold 63.63% in February and 57.60% in March.

Sales volume has decreased, but profit from pig prices has remained high. Without exception, sales revenue has increased. The whole industry is in a state of "price increase" in the first half of the year.

By the second half of the year, even if the prices of live pigs have dropped, they can still hedge the price slide through "volume", and then hedge the quarterly operating profits to produce a smooth effect.

In the earnings report, it may appear in the three quarter and fourth quarter of 2019, but the quarterly profits in 2020 are not as high as those in the history. However, the overall profit is relatively average and continues to grow throughout the year.

It should be pointed out that the current pig breeding industry and machinery manufacturing industry belong to the industry with higher certainty in performance growth. In the first quarter of this year, the outbreak of food, aviation and other industries have a significant impact on the background, the two tier market may further strengthen the configuration of the deterministic industry.

The adverse factor is that the single quarter profitability of listed pig enterprises is hard to surpass the four quarter of 2019, and continues to record high.

In addition, the cumulative rise of the relevant listed companies since 2019 has been very impressive. As the new hope rose 174% in 2019, it increased by 62.4% in the year. (Editor: Wu Yan Ling)

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