Lint Spot Rose By 400 Yuan / Ton In Early April.

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According to business statistics, as of April 15th, the average price of the domestic lint spot market was 11483 yuan / ton, up 2.35% from the beginning of the month, down 26.62% from the same period last year. After the Qingming Festival, crude oil production reduced the news, boosted the market, oil prices rebounded sharply, and once rebounded 27%. The US stock market recovered, 50 cotton cents on the ICE cotton stand, and the domestic lint spot rose by 422 yuan / ton, or 3.81%.

　　 Positive factors

The stock market picked up and ICE cotton stood at 50 cents. The beginning of all is to start with the rebound of crude oil. At the beginning of April, Saudi Arabia considered large-scale oil production reduction, easing oil price war with Russia, surging international oil prices, and raising the stock market and futures. As of April 14th, the ICE July cotton newspaper was 53.18 cents per pound, up 3.42 cents / pound, or 6.87%, compared with April 2nd. As of 15 days, the 2009 contract settlement price of zhengmian main unit was 11425 yuan / ton, up 525 yuan / ton compared with April 1st, or 4.82%. During the period, the increase in the number of new crown pneumonia deaths in the United States and Europe has slowed down the market so that the market can regain optimism and help cotton prices rise sharply.

Due to the impact of the epidemic, the planting area of the United States cotton will probably increase. The planting survey conducted by NCC earlier this year showed that the US cotton planting area decreased by 5% over the same period last year.

Cotton production in Pakistan is expected to be 6 million 300 thousand packs in 2020/21, a decrease of 21% over the same period last year, due to a 12% reduction in cotton planting area compared with the same period last year.

　　 Negative factors

Domestic textile export data is not good, cotton price rise stagnation. At home, the latest data of the General Administration of Customs of China showed that in March 2020, China's textile and clothing exports amounted to US $15 billion 430 million, down 15.13% compared to the same period last year. In 1-3 months, the total export volume of textiles and clothing in China was 45 billion 265 million US dollars, down 17.70% from the same period last year. The total export volume of textiles was 22 billion 694 million US dollars, down 14.62% compared to the same period last year, and the total export volume of garments was 22 billion 570 million dollars, down 20 from the same period last year. .58%.

The latest US cotton export weekly shows that between March 27th and April 2nd, the US cotton contract volume decreased by 1179 tons this year, reaching a new low of the year. China, Indonesia, Pakistan and South Korea cancelled a larger number. The epidemic affects global trade. Due to the need of epidemic prevention measures, the starting rate of non medical related textile enterprises is not as good as in previous years, and even there is an occasional stop production. Textile enterprises are faced with the cancellation of orders and no new orders. Without orders, of course, there is no need to purchase raw materials. Lint consumption is worrying the market.

Cotton prices bottomed out and cotton yarn manufacturers refused to move. At the end of February to the end of March, lint came to a very fast pace and fell to below 11000 yuan / ton. Years ago, the price of the lint continued to rise in the first paragraph of the agreement between China and the United States. At the end of the year, the enterprises replenishment of raw materials according to the order and the next year's production plan. It can be planned to catch up with the changes. The China Cotton Textile Industry Association and the China Textile Industry Federation jointly concluded that as of the end of March, orders for some textile cluster direct export products were down by 50%-70%, and indirect export yarn orders were reduced by about 30%-50%. Spinning high priced cotton is difficult to digest. Because of new orders, low price cotton does not want to buy. Part of the yarn enterprises consider digestion inventory, after the Qingming Festival, reduce the selling price, return the funds, and then buy low price cotton and low production costs. But after the festival, lint prices showed a rising trend, and the price adjustment was shelved.

Business analysts believe that cotton consumption will not be a turning point in the near future, do not have the strength to go up. Cotton prices rose nearly 400 yuan / ton in the past week, the rally continued to progress, there are stock and crude oil driving factors, but the demand side has not yet recovered vitality, futures are in turmoil, spot signs of a slight reduction in the first place, is expected to spot 11400 yuan / ton rest.