Property Market Out Of The Shadow Of The Epidemic? National Commercial Housing Transactions Have Been Restored To 86%

As the new crown pneumonia epidemic has been effectively controlled, the real estate market is gradually recovering from the cliff fall.

In April 17th, the National Bureau of statistics released data show that the first quarter of this year, the national commercial housing sales area of 219 million 780 thousand square meters, down 26.3% compared with the same period, compared with the first two months of the "cliff type" decline, the decline narrowed by 13.6 percentage points. Commercial housing sales of 20365 billion yuan, down 24.7%, the decline narrowed by 11.2 percentage points.

Among them, in March, the total area of commercial housing sales in China was 135 million 30 thousand square meters, equivalent to 85.9% of the same period last year, and the sales volume of commercial housing was 12162 billion yuan, equivalent to 85.4% of the same period last year.

That is to say, by March this year, the volume of real estate transactions in the whole country has been restored to over 85%.

In some areas, the market is heating up quite strongly. Recently, several luxury projects in Shenzhen have been popular, and the long-awaited price of "tea drinking" has come back again. Suzhou was also under the blessing of the new deal, when there was a phenomenon of "robbing the housing". In March, the price increase of new and second hand housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China was larger than that in February.

Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the traditional property market "little spring" has already been released. Although the accumulated demand is looking for release, what trend will the future market take when the demand is dominant and the tone is not loosened?

As the new crown pneumonia epidemic has been effectively controlled, the real estate market is gradually recovering from the cliff fall. Song Wenhui photo

Real estate investment is experiencing positive growth.

The new crown pneumonia epidemic hit the property market mainly in February. Due to the restriction of personnel flow, the real estate sites in most cities in the country have been shut down, and the sales offices have been closed for a while. In that month, there was a zero turnover in many cities.

According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the sales volume of the national commercial housing area decreased by 40% over the same period of 1-2 this year, and the sales fell by 35.9%.

Beginning in mid March, as the site resumed and sales offices opened one after another, the market entered a stage of rapid recovery.

On the evening of March 20th, the three real estate projects in Suzhou opened at the same time, and nearly 900 houses were launched. Whether online sales or offline selection of housing projects, almost all "seconds light." In late March, new housing projects were snapped up in Shenzhen and Shanghai. Some of Shenzhen's projects were attracted by regulatory authorities' attention because of the high price of "tea drinking".

From a nationwide perspective, except for the more stringent epidemic prevention and control areas such as Wuhan and Beijing, the market in other regions has been rapidly warming, and the overall housing prices have also risen. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics in April 16th, in March this year, the price of new houses in first tier cities (4 cities), second tier cities (31 cities) and three line cities (35) in the 70 large and medium-sized cities in China increased by 0.2%, 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, all of which were larger than those in February. Over the same period, the price of second-hand housing has also increased.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, believes that the market is heating up rapidly. Besides the control of the epidemic situation, it is also related to the frequent support policies of local governments.

Since February, in view of the impact of the epidemic, ten cities across the country have issued policies to support the policy, including supporting rational financing needs, delayed payment of land leasing fees, reducing the pre-sale conditions of commercial housing, reducing the regulatory funds for pre-sale, lowering the threshold for settling down, providing subsidies for housing purchase, and relaxing the policy of provident fund. Centaline statistics show that the number of real estate regulation in the first quarter has reached 171 times, up 65% over the same period.

These policies have boosted both ends of supply and demand, especially for investment. The first quarter of this year, the national real estate development investment of 21963 billion yuan, down 7.7% compared to the same period, the decline narrowed by 8.6 percentage points compared to 1-2 months. Among them, in March the national real estate development investment 11848 billion yuan, an increase of 1.2% over the same period.

In the first quarter of this year, the new housing area, the completion area of housing, and the drop in area taken by housing enterprises were narrowed compared with the previous February, and the construction area continued to maintain positive growth.

In the capital side, the first quarter of the real estate development enterprises in place of 33566 billion yuan of funds, down 13.8% from the same period, a decline of 1 to February narrowed by 3.7 percentage points.

In addition, in March, the real estate development boom index (referred to as the "State Housing prosperity index") was 98.18, an increase of 0.78 points over February, but it is still in the "moderate level of prosperity".

Underpowered retaliatory rebound

In April 8th, with the release of Wuhan, the first sales offices in Wuhan were also open. So far, sales offices in major cities across the country have been opened.

However, judging from the actual performance, although some sales offices are booming, there is no expectation of retaliatory rebound.

Statistics from several agencies show that in the first half of April, the number of new houses in key cities continued to increase. However, the rate of liberalization has remained at about 7, compared with the previous month. Overall, the market's pushing volume and trading scale have not reached the same level in the same period last year.

"The market is still at a stage of recovery." 58 Zhang Bo, director of the Research Institute of Anju Real Estate Research Institute, told the twenty-first Century economic report that at the present stage, just need to enter the market one after another, but this demand has not yet been completely released.

A large housing company official revealed that in early April, the company had conducted exploratory opening in several hot cities. The feedback from the first line was "good concern, but not high rate." He believes that the reason may be the high price of the project. At the same time, there are more options in the market, and also diverted the customers.

The person told the twenty-first Century economic report that the current market demand is mainly based on the demand for first-time home ownership and the first improvement. It is characterized by relatively sensitive price, prudent decision making and "Three Goods". Therefore, without the stimulation of special policies such as some local policies, these demands can hardly evolve into panic buying houses, nor will they boost the property market in the short term.

At the policy level, although the recent attempts to deregulation control are frequent, the overall scale is still limited. Recently, six cities such as Haining, Guangzhou, Ji'nan, Baoji, Zhumadian, Qingdao and so on have been able to withdraw or make adjustments to the policy because they are too loose.

In April 10th, Zou Lan, director of the central bank's financial market division, said that since 2016, the central bank has done some work to curb the excessive flow of funds to the real estate industry, and achieved obvious results. The real estate industry is characterized by capital intensive industries, and the cycle is very long. The central bank has always attached great importance to the stability, continuity and consistency of policies. The real estate market's "three stability" (stable prices, stable prices, stable expectations) tone, the stable expectations are particularly important, the expected instability instead of greater harm to the economy, the next step is in line with the central general requirements and spirit, around the "three stability" target to do a good job.

Most respondents believe that the policy of financing, housing and other policies will not be significantly relaxed if the total tone of "housing is not speculation" remains unchanged.

Zhang Bo pointed out that, on the one hand, the overall fluctuation of housing prices is not large, but the intensity and scope of the overall discount will be narrowed, which will stabilize market sentiment. On the other hand, buyers will increase their willingness to enter the market, but they are generally cautious. He said that in the second quarter of this year, the market volume will continue to rise, but the chance of retaliatory rebound is relatively small.

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