China'S GDP Fell 6.8% In The First Quarter, The New Economy Boosted Market Confidence.

In April 17th, the National Bureau of statistics released the latest data showing that China's GDP fell 6.8% in the first quarter and the previous value increased by 6%.

In the first quarter, the gross domestic product of 20 trillion and 650 billion yuan was calculated at comparable prices, representing a decrease of 6.8% over the same period. In terms of industries, the first industry increased by 1 trillion and 20 billion yuan, down by 3.2%; the second industry added value of 7 trillion and 360 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6%; third industrial added value 12 trillion and 270 billion yuan, down 5.2%.

China's fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) in the first quarter was 84145 billion yuan, down 16.1% from the same period last year, a decrease of 8.4 percentage points from 1 to February. Private fixed assets investment of 47804 billion yuan, down 18.8%, the decline narrowed by 7.6 percentage points. From the aspect of the chain ratio, fixed asset investment (excluding households) increased by 6.05% in March.

　　 Rapid growth of online retailing

1. the nominal income of residents increased and real income decreased. Data show that China's disposable income per capita in the first quarter of the year was 8561 yuan, an increase of 0.8% in nominal terms, and a 3.9% decrease in real terms. According to permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban residents is 11691 yuan, a nominal increase of 0.5%, a real drop of 3.9%, and the per capita disposable income of rural residents is 4641 yuan, a nominal increase of 0.9%, a real decrease of 4.7%.

2. the unemployment rate in urban areas has declined, and the employment situation is generally stable. In the first quarter, there were 2 million 290 thousand new jobs in cities and towns nationwide. In March, the unemployment rate of 31 big cities and towns was 5.7%, unchanged from last month. Zhou Pingjun, the national employment officer, worked for 44.8 hours, an increase of 4.6 hours from last month.

3. the sales of daily necessities and online retail of physical commodities increased rapidly. China's total retail sales of consumer goods decreased by 15.8% in March, down 20.5% in 1-2, and 19% in the first quarter.

According to the consumption type, the restaurant income was 602 billion 600 million yuan, a decrease of 44.3%, and the retail sales of commodities amounted to 72553 yuan, a decrease of 15.8%. The online retail sales of physical commodities increased by 18536 yuan, an increase of 5.9%, which was 2.9 percentage points faster than that in 1-2 months, and accounted for 23.6% of the total retail sales of social consumer goods, a 2.1 percentage point increase over that of 1-2 months.

4. consumer price inflation fell. In the first quarter, consumer prices nationwide rose 4.9% over the same period. The prices of food, tobacco and alcohol rose by 14.9% compared with the same period last year, the clothing increased by 0.2%, living increased by 0.2%, daily necessities and services increased by 0.2%, traffic and communications decreased by 1.5%, educational culture and entertainment increased by 1.9%, medical care increased by 2.2%, and other goods and services increased by 4.9%.

5. the production of service industry is declining, and the new service industry is growing well. In the first quarter, the added value of the third industry decreased year by year, and the value added of the information transmission, software and information technology service industry and the financial industry increased by 13.2% and 6% respectively. In March, the national service production index fell by 9.1%, a decrease of 3.9 percentage points from 1-2 months.

6. agricultural production is basically stable, and the grain production situation is better. In the first quarter, the added value of agriculture (planting) increased by 3.5% over the same period last year. Egg production increased by 4.3%, milk production increased by 4.6%, and output of pigs, cattle, sheep and poultry was 18 million 130 thousand tons.

7. industrial production has declined, and the basic raw materials industry and high-tech manufacturing industry have maintained growth. In the first quarter, the added value of industrial above designated size decreased by 8.4% compared with the same period last year. Among them, the added value of above scale industries in March dropped by 1.1% compared with the same period last year, the decline narrowed by 12.4 percentage points compared with 1-2 months, the growth rate was 32.13%, and the industrial output scale was close to that of the same period last year.

In March, the high-tech manufacturing industry grew by 8.9% over the same period last year, of which computer, telecommunications and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry increased by 9.9%. The output of industrial robots and generators increased by 12.9% and 20% respectively.

Industry Internet analysts showed that industrial and fixed asset investment had a greater resilience in March, indicating that China's resumption of production was in good condition. However, the rebound in social retail sales was relatively small, indicating that the epidemic still had a large impact on consumption intention, and there was no retaliatory consumption phenomenon.

8., investment activities have slowed down, and e-commerce, professional technology services and investment in anti epidemic related industries have increased. According to the industry, investment in the first industry dropped by 13.8%, investment in the second industry dropped by 21.9%, and investment in the third industry dropped by 13.5%. Among them, China's real estate investment in the first quarter dropped 7.7% compared to the same period last year, and dropped by 16.3% in 1-2 months. In the high-tech manufacturing industry, computer and office equipment manufacturing investment increased by 3.2%. In the high-tech service industry, the investment in e-commerce services increased by 39.6%, the investment in professional and technical services increased by 36.7%, and the transformation of scientific and technological achievements into services increased by 17.4%.

9. the import and export of goods slowed down and the trade structure continued to improve. In the first quarter, the total import and export volume of goods was 65742 billion yuan, down 6.4% from the same period last year. Among them, the total import and export volume in March was 24459 billion yuan, down 0.8% compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 8.7% compared with 1-2 months.

　　 Market expectations

Capital market has long expected data such as -6.8%.

After 10 o'clock data was issued, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen index and gem index rose sharply, with the gem index rising 1.92% in midday and leading two cities. This shows that after a long time of epidemic baptism, investors have already made clear expectations for the quarterly data of the first quarter, the performance of various industries and benchmarking enterprises.

Although the 2020 quarter of the whole is affected by the epidemic, the total volume of social decline has declined considerably compared with the first quarter of 2019. However, compared with January and February, the total volume of social zero has increased significantly in March, and the positive growth in the second quarter will be a matter of great probability.

The epidemic at the international level is unlikely to end in the second quarter. People's consumer confidence will continue to be affected. Due to the policy restrictions of all kinds of offline business activities, online consumption will rise further, and the recovery of industries like tourism, catering and automobile will be very slow.

Internet life and consumer economy were further consolidated during the epidemic. Takeaway, online shopping market is active, the network length video, online office, meetings and other track have different degrees of expected growth.

For example, Iqiyi, which experienced a short wave, expects the total revenue in the first quarter of 2020 to be between 7 billion 100 million yuan (US $1 billion 20 million) and 7 billion 520 million yuan (US $1 billion 80 million), up 2% and 8% over the same period, and the number of subscribers exceeded 100 million.

The first quarter results announcement issued by A share listed company 300413.SZ shows that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is 430 million yuan -4.9 billion yuan, an increase of 2.89% -17.24% over the same period last year. During the Spring Festival, mango TV per day lasted for 88 minutes, only 111 minutes after beep, and its growth rate was over 40%.

In the first quarter, some local life oriented enterprises, including the US group review and seabed fishing, which had been affected by real business performance, experienced a brief decline in share price performance, but the rate of stabilization and rebounding was equally fast. They did not suffer too much damage because they were in the "worst hit area". That is, they had already predicted a quarterly loss in the first quarter and did not affect investors' enthusiasm.

The sharp rise in total retail sales in March clearly gave the market more confidence.

　　 Consumption upgrading and demand remain

During the SARS epidemic in 2003, Internet companies were developing rapidly. Some people think that this is the development of Internet companies' "benefit from" epidemic situation. Others think that this is caused by the development laws of the Internet and technology enterprises themselves.

No matter what the relationship between them is, the economic development of the country has not fallen into a long-term stagnation after the sharp economic downturn caused by the epidemic. Instead, it has ushered in a wave of new economic development.

China relies on the world's largest single market, and the domestic demand market has attracted businesses to provide better products for consumers in different ways, from traditional commerce to various retail outlets, but its essence has been the continuous improvement of consumer consumption level.

Worries about "consumer demotion" have always been there, but the small red books represented by urban consumption and the constantly rising valuations and stock prices represented by urban consumption have fully demonstrated the fact that the most intelligent capital in the world is sure to continue to upgrade Chinese consumption.

At the same time, the world's major economies have begun a new round of economic development and revitalization plan, for example, the United States requires the small and medium enterprises Authority to provide economic loans to the affected States and regions, so as to provide funds and liquidity for SMEs. It is reported that he will ask Congress to increase this amount by 50 billion US dollars.

In March 28th, Italy approved a 4 billion 300 million euro Municipal Fund to help small and medium-sized enterprises tide over the difficulties of the general public. Previously, the country has approved a total fiscal stimulus of 25 billion euros.

According to Japanese media reports, Japan's upcoming economic aid plan for the epidemic will reach more than 10% of the annual GDP value of Japan (close to US $500 billion).

Under the stimulation of various economic revitalization plans, the stable economic environment on the global scale will also provide a better external environment for China's economic development, especially in the foreign trade industry, which has already been in deep trouble.

Businessmen involved in cross-border business in Russia told the billion euro that businesses have begun ordering goods from all over the world, and the frozen cash flow has begun to revive.