The Volume Of Global Trade Will Shrink By 13% To 32%. In Late April, The European And American Markets Will Be "Unsealed".

14, March trade data released, import and export data both better than market expectations!

According to customs statistics, in March this year, China's foreign trade import and export 2 trillion and 450 billion yuan, down 0.8% compared to the same period, the decline narrowed by 8.7 percentage points compared to 1-2 months. Of which, exports were 1 trillion and 290 billion yuan, down 3.5%; imports 1 trillion and 160 billion yuan, an increase of 2.4%.

In the first quarter, the total value of import and export of China's goods trade was 6 trillion and 570 billion yuan, down 6.4% from the same period last year. Among them, exports were 3 trillion and 330 billion yuan, down 11.4%; imports 3 trillion and 240 billion yuan, down 0.7%; trade surplus 98 billion 330 million yuan, 80.6% reduction. Textile and clothing 7 categories of labor-intensive products exported 596 billion 980 million yuan, down 15.3%, accounting for 17.9%. ?

At present, the international epidemic is still spreading rapidly. The shrinking international market will inevitably impact on the export of textile industry, and the reduction of new orders in the foreign trade market will follow. For textile enterprises, the difficulties they face now should not be underestimated.

WTO: Global trade will shrink by 13% to 32%.

Recently, the WTO analysis said that the global supply chain chaos and the sharp decline in demand had a negative impact. The new crown epidemic hit more than the world financial crisis in 2009 (a decrease of 13%).

They put forward 2 expectations: if the trade downturn is long, and then the "pessimism" which is slow to recover, the volume of trade will be reduced by 32%. This will be the worst result after World War II. On the other hand, even the sharp decline in trade, but the recovery in the second half of 2020, "optimistic expectations" will also be reduced by 13%.

No matter what kind of expectation, the world will face two digit trade shrinkage, which is obviously different from that of SARS in 2003. At that time, Global trade was in a period of rapid growth. After the outbreak of the epidemic, the market will soon have a retaliatory consumption rebound, and the foreign trade market is booming.

A SARS textile fabric owner recalled: "in the second half of the 03 year, the market will suddenly improve, so long as there are fabrics, they will be sold out, and it will be a seller's market at that time." But for the current epidemic, he felt very nervous.

According to the retail consultancy statistics, during the epidemic period, up to 19 stores in the United States were closed down, accounting for 50% of the retail business area of the United States. From the current epidemic situation, the global economy is now losing its strength and the number of foreign applications for unemployment benefits is increasing.

The status quo of foreign trade: there is no single connection but the status quo has not improved.

At present, it has entered the middle of April. Since the outbreak of overseas epidemic, foreign trade enterprises' centralized order cancellation has been "full moon". No matter how many foreign orders have been received before, after 1 months' execution, there are not many orders left.

A friend who made foreign trade said, "we still have orders. Orders were quite many years ago, but there is no more."

There is also a foreign trade friend who imitates real silk. This year, the fabric of foreign trade has been shrunk by half. "At present, it is already in a single state, and there is no customer to consult subsequent orders, turn over the bill, just let us not let the goods be shipped."

For the current foreign trade salesmen, in the near future, they are all in a half holiday in addition to finding all kinds of protective equipment resources and gaining new profit points. In recent years, autumn and winter fabric proofing and sample operation should not be carried out. The reduction of orders and clippits, and the lack of subsequent motivation, is also most vividly displayed in dyeing factories. In April, the start of dyeing plants also plummeted. The average operating rate has dropped to about 6.

According to a dyeing factory staff, since the middle of March, their orders for dyeing factories have dropped significantly. In the early stage, they still crowded queues. Now they are in a state of waiting for work to do, and small cylinder lofting is not much. This is a rare phenomenon in his ten years since he worked. ?

At present, the impact of the new crown epidemic on the market is still expanding, so long as the epidemic situation is not improved, the order situation will be difficult to improve. At present, the main hot products in the market are related to protective products. Melt blown fabrics, polypropylene, non-woven fabrics, PE films and so on are all cash queues in the market, while other conventional textile products have no orders to release. Therefore, when the overseas economy will recover, it is very important.

Trump: some states can restart the economy by May 1st.

According to reports, Trump 14 at the White House briefing briefing said that he believed that some states can cancel the strict social isolation measures before the end of April, and its economy is expected to restart before May 1st.

Although we do not know how much the speculation is, we can see the urgency of the economic recovery in the world's largest economy.

Germany ended the blockade in April 19th, Spain ended the emergency in April 26th, Czech eased part of the closed measures at the end of April, and Austria will gradually relax the current stringent epidemic prevention measures after mid April.

It is proved that under the optimistic expectation, the foreign market will be opened in April, and the economic activities that have been delayed for more than 1 months will be launched one after another. Of course, the premise of this good news is that the epidemic situation is well controlled, but from the current situation, it is hard to say well.

Of course, the recent market has also seen many textile owners' main business depressed, and the sideline industry is everywhere.

1, about the production of protective equipment: protective equipment in the near future is "fragrant meat and potatoes", but the number of people who eat in the hall is too much, and there will always be surplus. In addition, the market quality of products is uneven, and the state has begun to introduce relevant strict control policies.

2, about raw materials: crude oil is still at a historical low in recent years. Crude oil has been hovering at the price of US $20, but the price of polyester filament may still be on the bottom. After all, polyester factories are filled with stock piles.