Early Warning! Serious Currency Devaluation Occurred In Many Big Trading Countries Under The Epidemic Situation

WHO (WHO) director general Tan Tak said on Monday local time warned that with the sharp increase in the number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in the world, especially in the densely populated areas of Africa and India, with the worsening epidemic situation in areas with relatively scarce medical resources, the worst moment in the world is coming.

When everyone is concerned about the number of confirmed people and masks, a Domino effect caused by the epidemic is taking place in the global economy. Many countries with weak economies have been blocked under the epidemic, the economic collapse and the currency's crazy depreciation.

This year:

According to the first quarter of Zhejiang's credit insurance summary, the export credit risk situation of Zhejiang province is introduced:

Foreign trade enterprises need to pay special attention to deal with the risk of collecting money in advance in these countries.

The first country to be hit by the epidemic

With the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in the world, Argentina's epidemic prevention measures have left the domestic economy almost stagnant. The "national isolation" order, which has been in operation for nearly a month, has been extended again. All shops except supermarkets and pharmacies are closed. We will close the air, sea and air borders and cancel all international and domestic flights.

Experts believe that a series of problems such as Argentina's employment, exports and debts have been gradually highlighted and the prospects for economic development are worrying.

According to Xinhua news agency, the Argentina government announced on April 6th that, due to the impact of the new crown epidemic on the economy and society, it decided to postpone the repayment of public debt to a total of about 10 billion dollars by 2021. The data released by the State Statistical and Census Bureau of Argentina showed that By the end of 2019, Argentina's foreign debt amounted to US $277 billion 648 million. 。

According to Reuters, Guzman, Minister of economic affairs of Argentina on April 19th, said in a media interview that Argentina is in a state of "de facto default" and is unable to repay its debts at present, so it will propose a comprehensive debt restructuring.

The new world economic outlook report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is predicted. Argentina's economy will shrink by 5.7% in 2020. 。

Argentina, known as the "king of default" in the international capital market, has had many debt default or reorganization after its independence. Huge government spending, a sharp increase in fiscal deficits and massive external borrowing are important reasons for Argentina's frequent debt crisis. The new crown pneumonia epidemic has become the last straw in Argentina. Although the cumulative number of Argentina's diagnoses in South America is not far behind, under the background of global economic recession, international capital outflows, Argentina's financial market and Peso exchange rate worsened, foreign exchange reserves continued to shrink, and a variety of risks superimposed on each other, eventually pushing Argentina back to the brink of bankruptcy.

Losing the largest oil pillar, currency demotion is over 30%.

Russia's epidemic is still grim. Last week, more than 27 thousand confirmed cases were confirmed in Russia, and more than 42 thousand cases were confirmed. Last Sunday, 6000 new cases were confirmed.

Ruble began to depreciate at the beginning of this year. In recent years, there has been a ruble fall in 2016, when the exchange rate of the US dollar was 1 rubles than the rouble. Looking at the present situation, it is only one step away from the highest point of history.

In recent years, the price of international crude oil has continued to decline.

Influenced by the news of the Russian rouble depreciation, many people in Russia have extracted their savings from banks and directly closed the relevant accounts set up by individuals in Russian banks. Russian bank recently released a news report that from March 15th to 25 days of 10 days, the Russian bank lost 600 billion of the amount of savings.

In the past, when the rouble appeared small fluctuations, the Central Bank of Russia often had two means to intervene in the exchange rate, raise the rouble interest rate and sell foreign exchange. Russia's foreign exchange reserves are also limited. If the ruble falls into a bottomless pit, then sufficient foreign exchange reserves will also be filled with dissatisfaction. Today, when the ruble falls, the central bank never dares to throw all its money into the fire pit. What the central bank can do is abandon the bailout and preserve the national strength.

If Brent crude oil prices continue to decline on the basis of 25 US dollars / barrel, the rouble will definitely break 85 to 90. During this period, any intervention by the Central Bank of Russia will only bring a symbolic small rally. The trend of the rouble exchange rate will be devalued again by the direct impact of the oil price and the epidemic situation.

Become the most serious country in Africa.

It is reported that in order to prevent the further spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, South African President Cyril Ramafusa announced that the national blockade for 21 days had been started since March 26th. Only by going to hospital, purchasing food and receiving relief funds can he leave home, and stay at home strictly at other times. In addition, various basic services are implemented as usual.

Wu Shaokang, chairman of the General Chamber of Commerce of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau and chairman of the South African Chinese overseas Chinese safety committee, said: "the biggest worry is the currency depreciation during the epidemic." This will cause serious damage to the import and export trade. Wu Shaokang explained that in early March, 1 US dollars could be exchanged for 14 South African rand, and now it has changed to 1 dollars for 19 South African Rand. For those engaged in import trade, the depreciation of South African currency by 30% means that the cost of purchase will increase substantially.

"There are more than 20 Chinatowns in South Africa selling Chinese goods, and the turnover is up to several hundred million yuan a day. It is impossible to estimate the loss of so many days. In addition, the cost of South African currency has been greatly reduced, and the cost of purchasing goods from China has also increased dramatically.

Lira fell to its lowest level since the currency crisis in 2018.

Turkey is currently the most frequently reported country in the Middle East. The Ministry of internal affairs of Turkey announced that the ban on entry and exit for some provinces and cities will extend for another 15 days starting from midnight on April 18th.

In April 17th, Turkey's Istanbul 100 index fell 5.28%, to its lowest level since January 2017, and the banking index XBANK fell 4.88%. The Istanbul exchange said earlier that the trigger threshold of fusing mechanism 5% would not be applied to the upper limit, but the lower limit is still valid.

Turkey has always relied on imports to meet its energy needs, and the recent drop in oil prices has provided support for lira. However, oil prices jumped 3.5% from Monday's low point on Tuesday, which could put new pressure on lira.

Start the second stage of the emergency economic plan

Chile has become the third country in Latin America to relay over Brazil and Peru, with more than 10 thousand confirmed cases.

President Pinera of Chile delivered a speech at the presidential palace. He said he would launch the second phase of the emergency economic plan, which aims to protect self-employed, micro, small and medium-sized companies.

For example, the government will set up a special fund of US $2 billion to provide more assistance to the families in distress and help them create more jobs. The state will provide loans to small and micro enterprises for up to US $24 billion to help them through the crisis.

Take measures to avoid depreciation of exchange rate

The economic and revenue policy committee of the Kyrgyzstan Parliament adopted the draft resolution at the provisional meeting held that day to take necessary measures to reduce the negative impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and the depreciation of the SOM exchange rate on the Kyrgyzstan economy.

The main measures include:

? suspension of inspections of small and medium enterprises for a period of 1 years, except for tax authorities.

Formulating the outline of banking system guarantee during the crisis;

In accordance with the checklist established by the Kyrgyzstan government, the export of essential necessities and some medical products and medicines is prohibited.

To formulate and implement a reorganization plan for foreign currency loans between Kyrgyz citizens and domestic companies.

To establish a national reserve fund against the new crown pneumonia epidemic.