Storage And Rumor Disturb The Market. This Week, The Price Of Both Internal And External Markets Is Rising.

The first part is the summary of basic data of domestic and foreign cotton market.

First, weekly data overview

Prices of major commodities and cotton

　　 This week, the CRB commodity price index fell sharply by 11.05 compared with last Friday, and it closed 112.75 cents / lbs on Friday, further approaching the historical low of 101.48 cents / pound, of which the US crude oil price dropped sharply by the stock pressure and the market pessimism, down 7.96 yuan / barrel compared with the previous Friday, and 17.18 dollars / barrel on Friday. In addition to a slight rebound in ICE cotton, agricultural products were all down, with corn falling by a big margin, down 6.2 cents / bushels, and beans fell 4 cents / bushels to 837.4 cents / bushels, and ICE cotton 07 contracts rose 2.93 cents / pound. The mainstream cotton resources rose sharply over the previous Friday, and the domestic cotton yarn price index maintained a downward trend for 7 consecutive weeks, down 190 yuan / ton this week.

Spot, as of April 24th, Xinjiang cotton total processing 5 million 155 thousand and 100 tons, notarized inspection 5 million 80 thousand and 500 tons. Cotton spot prices rose slightly 40 yuan / ton on Friday compared with last week. The weekly turnover was slightly better than that of last week, mainly based on the base point price. Textile enterprises are still buying and selling at the same time. They just need to replenishment, while some other ginning plants begin to deal with inventory resources, mostly with flat water or +100 yuan / ton for 05 contracts.

In the downstream market, the pure cotton yarn market maintained a mild trend this week, and cotton yarn prices continued to fall, and the market continued to be weak. The yarn stock level of spinning enterprises continues to rise, and the local textile enterprises have already seen a reduction in output, and the overall start-up has declined. According to the survey results of cotton textile network, nearly 2/3 of the textile enterprises have holiday plans for May 1 holiday, and most of the textile enterprises during the May 1 period will not have a holiday in order to catch up. The holiday is mainly due to three aspects: first, the order is scarce, there is no rush demand; the two is the stock pressure continues to increase; three, it is not optimistic about the market demand recovery. The demand for orders is not as bad as that of textile mills, but also to keep workers from losing. As a whole, textile mills maintain their weakness and orders are still shrinking.

Zhengzhou cotton market, Zhengzhou cotton main 09 contract during the week, the cumulative price rose 60 yuan / ton, holdings increased 6019 to 378 thousand hands, turnover increased 740 thousand hands, to 2 million 310 thousand hands, Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract this week to increase the warehouse volume, the price upward upward active.

The second part is the basic situation of the domestic market.

1, textile main raw material trend

　　 In terms of raw material prices, viscose prices remained unchanged this week. Pet prices rebounded slightly higher than last Friday's 300 yuan / ton, cotton yarn maintained weak operation, prices continued to decline, this week fell 190 yuan / ton, spot index price rose slightly 40 yuan / ton; zhengmian 09 contract rose 60 yuan / ton compared with last Friday.

2, cotton yarn price trend

　　 In April 24th, the market price of pure cotton yarn and cotton yarn continued to drop sharply compared with last Friday.

　　 In April 24th, the price of imported yarn was lower than that of last Friday.

　　 In April 24th, the price of external yarn denominated in Renminbi declined more than last Friday, mainly due to overseas epidemic.

　　 The price difference between April 24th and April 24th was -1104 yuan / ton in April 24th. The difference between domestic and foreign yarns was -1104 yuan / ton. Last Friday, the spread price difference was -1058 yuan / ton, and the spread was widened.

3. Comparison between domestic cotton futures price and international cotton price index (including tax).

　　 In April 24th, the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128 reported 11503 yuan / ton; FC IndexM reported 68.4 cents / pound, under the tariff of 1%, the price was 11875 yuan / ton, and the discount tax was 13690 yuan / ton, which rose slightly compared with last Friday. The spot price index and the cotton price ratio under sliding tax are -2187 yuan / ton, last Friday was -1853 yuan / ton. Compared with the 1% tariff, the price is -327 yuan / ton. The difference between spot price index and sliding tax is further widened.

In April 24th, the main contract 2009 closed at 11460 yuan / ton, and the price difference with FC Index M (sliding tax) -2230 yuan / ton, last Friday was -1916 yuan / ton, and its FC Index M price difference -415 1% yuan / ton under the tariff. The price difference between Zheng cotton and sliding tax has narrowed.

　　 As of April 24th, the main contract of ICE was closed at 57.65 cents / pound in July, 9009 yuan / ton on the disk price, and 2450 yuan / ton in the 2009 contract with zhengmian 2009. The trade price of 10 cents was calculated to be RMB 11839 yuan / ton, and the price difference between Zheng cotton 2009 contract (zhengmian -ICE cotton) was RMB yuan / ton.

The third part is Zheng cotton market analysis.

1, Zheng cotton warehouse receipt and effective forecast situation

　　 As of April 24th, the registered warehouse receipt of Zheng cotton was 27777 (1 million 194 thousand tons), effective forecasts were 5043 (217 thousand tons), warehouse receipts and effective forecasts were 1 million 411 thousand tons, 9 thousand tons lower than last Friday's 1 million 420 thousand tons, and the total volume of warehouse receipts continued to decrease.

2, Zheng cotton current price difference analysis

　　 As of April 24th, the difference between Zheng cotton futures price and CCI3128B index was -43 yuan / ton, which was -63 yuan / ton on last Friday, and the current price difference narrowed slightly.

3, Zheng cotton price analysis

On the macro side, the new crown virus has become more and more popular in the world. As of April 25th, the total number of confirmed cases has reached 2 million 700 thousand cases, with nearly 200 thousand deaths. What is even more worrying is that the recent confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in Southeast Asia, South Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, North Africa, and emerging Europe have increased rapidly, becoming the third wave of the second wave in Europe and the United States. Among them, Turkey, Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico and Indonesia are major emerging economies. If the third wave continues to ferment, it may lengthen the global epidemic prevention front, which will affect the manufacturing industry chain and the supply of bulk raw materials, global demand and financial stability. Just like this week, WTI crude oil fell to -37 U.S. dollars / barrel in the past 2005 contracts, closing at the negative price and becoming the biggest black swan event in international commodity market. This is precisely because supply and demand mismatch, and lack of ability to store oil market participants in the Cushing region of Oklahoma, led to oil prices plummeting to negative values, but also reflects the pessimism of the market. In the pattern of world economic integration, no country can stand alone. Next week, April 29th will focus on the first quarter GDP data, focusing on the impact of data on US stock market and commodity market.

From the perspective of global supply and demand, according to the prediction by the US Department of agriculture, the end of April inventory was 19 million 870 thousand tons, the peak in the past four years. At the time of spring ploughing in the northern hemisphere, new cotton has been sown in cotton fields in the United States, China and Northern India. According to the latest guidance issued by the Ministry of the interior of India during the blockade period, production activities such as agriculture will be fully liberalized after April 20th. In terms of agriculture and animal husbandry and fisheries, all agricultural activities can be fully functioning. In view of this, epidemic prevention and control has limited impact on crop cultivation in India. At the same time, India meteorological department predicted that the monsoon climate during spring ploughing stage is more conducive to sowing, and India's MSP policy is also an important factor for stabilizing the planting end. On the whole, the planting area of India new year is stable. Because of the target subsidy policy of 18600 yuan / ton in China's cotton growing area, the planting willingness area remained basically unchanged from last year, with a slight decrease of 5%. The cotton planting area in the new year is expected to be 13 million 703 thousand acres, a slight decrease of 0.3% over the same period last year. Overall, the cotton growing area of the three largest cotton producing areas in the northern hemisphere is stable in India, China and the United States in the new year. And demand side, global cotton consumption in April dropped 1 million 650 thousand tons from last month, a record high. At present, the continuous spread of the new crown virus has caused many countries to extend the time of closing the city. The market is pessimistic about the prospects of non rigid consumer goods.

In recent days, China has been preparing to buy about 10 million tons of soybeans, 20 million tons of corn and 1 million tons of cotton as a national reserve to help protect itself from the disruption of supply chain disruptions caused by the coronavirus epidemic and to fulfil its promise to buy more US agricultural products. Later, it was reported that the top Chinese textile executives confirmed that they participated in the meeting of the NDRC, and China Textile began to inquire about the purchase of cotton by Ellen burger. Whether it is collecting or issuing quotas, if it is directly entered into the national reserve after purchasing, temporarily does not flow to the market, then it will play a supporting role in both the internal and external markets in the short term. The demand side is affected by the epidemic, and the downstream market continues to slump. Usually April is the most prosperous month in the traditional peak season of the textile market in the first half of the year, but this year's peak season is basically ruined, and the pure cotton yarn market is very cold. At present, the stock of pure cotton yarn in spinning enterprises is at a relatively high level in the same period in the past three years, and the load on the start-up is at a low level for nearly three years. Affected by the outbreak of foreign countries, foreign trade orders in Europe and the United States have been stagnant and the time for recovery is still uncertain.

This week, the commodity index fell sharply compared with last Friday, fell 11.05, and reported 112.75 on Friday, of which crude oil has seen a substantial decline. Domestic Chinese goods declined by 1.23 compared with last Friday, and Friday finished at 132.41. This week's ICE cotton 07 contract, which was affected by the receipt and storage of information, shifted its focus gradually to 55.64 cents / pound on Friday. This week Zheng cotton main force 09 contract, the week price rises accumulatively 60 yuan / ton, the position increases 6019 hands to 378 thousand hands, the turnover increases 740 thousand hands, to 2 million 310 thousand hands. Focus on late warehouse changes.

On the whole, the market has a higher expectation of China's purchase and storage of imported cotton. The increase in reserves does not affect domestic supply in the short term, but it pushes up the price of foreign exchange. However, it is important to note that the rise in the price may liberate the unsold resources in the north and south of Xinjiang. At present, there are about 1 million tons of unsold resources in the north and South Xinjiang. And demand side, the current inventory of downstream products continue to accumulate, the demand for new orders has not yet appeared, even if there is a small list, it is difficult to release the market pressure, the lower reaches of the machine continued to decline, during the May 1 period, there are many plans for the lower reaches of the holiday. And the weakening pattern of the lower reaches will create a ceiling pressure on the upstream cotton prices. Just like the 19 year Sino US trade friction, the downstream consumption is weak. This year's global new crown virus is a direct loss of downstream demand. The missing part is irreparable, and the suppression of cotton prices can hardly be eliminated in the short term. In summary, short-term cotton prices are expected to continue the trend of volatility.

　　 This week, the 09 contract of zhengmian main force was first suppressed and then lifted, and the price trajectory was broken up and the track upward trajectory was running. The tracks above the brin channel closed at 11460 yuan / ton on Friday. The weekly price rose by 60 yuan / ton. The MACD index showed a golden divergence and a red column spread. The KD index had a tendency to diverge upward. The technical indicators were strong, and recently the focus was on the change of storage capacity.

The fourth part is international market analysis.

1, US cotton export dynamics

　　 04.10-04.16 this week, the United States signed 3552 tons of cotton on sale in 2019/20 this year, 73% less than the average contract volume of nearly four weeks, and 60383 tons of land cotton shipments, which continued to decline by 15% compared with last week's volume, 33% less than the average 4 week average shipment volume.

　　 As of April 24th, the CFTC position data showed that the fund's net multi position was -15675, after a week's data was -17654 hand; the fund's net long positions increased slightly, an increase of 1979 compared with last week, and this week's fund net long position continued to rise, indicating that market pessimism has improved in the short run.

2, ICE cotton analysis

　　 This week, the ICE cotton main 07 contract is subject to the pressure on the brin track, and the price will reach the top track below two consecutive trading days. At present, the brin channel has signs of closing, and the downward trajectory rises and combines with the news of receipt and storage. The weekly price rose by 2.93 cents / pound. The MACD index showed a golden divergence and a red column spread, and the technical indicators were strong, focusing on the upper trajectory pressure and the recent storage volume changes.

The fifth part is operation suggestion.

This week's purchase and storage information affected the price rise of zhengmian and US cotton in different ranges, of which the increase of cotton in ICE period was larger.

It is suggested that the upstream cotton enterprises continue to do well in inventory risk management. At the same time, we can consider selling spot resources at a higher point. A high call price option can also be held to compensate for the loss of spot positions.

It is recommended that cotton trade enterprises set up virtual stocks near the low price area of history.

Textile enterprises already have (virtual stock) positions can be left on the right amount, at the same time, according to the order situation, just need to replenishment.

The current companies are going to have a strong base to speed up the sale of spot prices.

The May Day holiday is reduced to risk prevention before the holiday. It is suggested that the long line funds should be placed in the early stage, and the positions should be controlled at 10-15%.