Retaliatory Consumption? You May Think Too Much.

A new crown pneumonia outbreak raided people's normal life by pressing the pause button, and had to fight against the new crown pneumonia epidemic by reducing the number of outgoing crowding. People are in urgent need of releasing the long suppressed consumption desire. The word "retaliatory consumption" has been caught up in the hot search list. However, it is followed by the loss of business and the decline of employee income, which has led people to shrink away from the frenzied consumption behavior after the gradual resumption of domestic social life and become more rational.

This is especially true for the textile and garment industry. According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in March 2020, the retail sales of consumer goods decreased by 15.8% compared with the same period last year. The decline narrowed by 4.7 percentage points compared with 1-2 months, indicating that social and economic activities have improved. However, clothing, shoes and hats and needles and textiles decreased by 34.8% compared with the same period last year. The decline was larger than that in 1-2 months, although it was in the "cold winter" spun clothing even though the domestic economic environment was slightly better. The industry has cooled further.

As of April 29th, the number of confirmed cases of new crown pneumonia in countries and regions outside China exceeded 3 million. Although the number of new confirmed cases has slowed down, the daily growth rate of about 80 thousand has continued to increase, and it has lasted for almost a month. The new crown epidemic outside China is still not optimistic. The global economic slowdown has brought more uncertainty to consumption capacity and consumption expectations.

The so-called reversal of the situation is nothing more than investment, consumption and export. All three wagons can run. If we want to stimulate investment, we must keep the profits of consumption and export side, while the export side has not had a new order for at least one month because of the epidemic situation abroad, and a lot of production capacity should be sold domestically. But judging from the current situation of the textile and apparel industry terminal, the retaliatory consumption that has been placed on high hopes is that at least the retaliatory consumption of the spinning and weaving industry may not come.

A Sina Financial survey showed that the outbreak of the outbreak made many people find that clothes that were originally too keen on excessive purchases became less important. Many young people are beginning to rethink their financial management and consumption outlook. This may come from the change of ideas and the wallet that is reduced due to reduced income.

Ren Zeping, chief economist of Hengda Group, said that the main contradiction in the current society is the contradiction between the increasingly intense demand for retaliatory consumption after the outbreak of the epidemic and the lack of money in the pocket. The spinning and clothing industry is still in use. Downstream textile companies are cutting stock prices, stopping production and reducing production. The terminal market has yet to show signs of improvement. On the basis of the increase in the consumption of textile and clothing in March, there is a possibility of further decline in April. From the performance of domestic cotton spinning and finishing products, you may think more about retaliatory consumption growth.