Market Continues To Slump, Enterprises Lack Confidence In The Market Outlook, And Demand Improvement Is Difficult.

As of Beijing time 05, 4, 2020, 16 points 01 minutes, the global cumulative diagnosis of 3495624 cases, 244008 cases of cumulative deaths.

Affected by the epidemic abroad, the share prices of global giants such as GAP, UNIQLO and Adidas continued to plummet, and the number of orders declined because of the large number of closed stores. At home, the GDP data of 31 provinces in China have been announced in the first quarter of this year. In the first quarter of this year, China's GDP fell by 6.8% compared with the same period last year. Under the influence of the epidemic, most provinces show negative economic growth, but the momentum of recovery is also accumulating. According to customs statistics, from March 1st to April 30th, the total value of major anti epidemic materials was 71 billion 200 million yuan. Since April, China's export and epidemic prevention materials have shown a significant growth trend. The average daily export volume has increased from about 1 billion yuan in early days to nearly 3 billion yuan per day, and has increased by more than 3 times in a month. After the impact, the next task is to recover. With the domestic market becoming warmer, the increase in demand is only a matter of time.

This week, near May 1 holidays, enterprises are facing a wide range of holidays. Domestic yarn market continues to slump, yarn prices are weak and stable, and downstream cotton textile enterprises have large inventory, lack of orders, light trading, and lack of confidence in the holiday market.

[weekly market overview]

　　 In terms of raw materials this week, the spot price of cotton was relatively stable, rising 75 yuan / ton, and the CF2009 contract of cotton futures main contract rose slightly, up 190 yuan / ton compared with April 27th. 1.4D direct spinning polyester short and viscose staple fiber continued to weaken due to supply and demand relationship. The number of orders in downstream enterprises decreased and inventory was larger. Most enterprises chose to extend holidays, lower prices and reduce inventories.

　　 This week the cotton yarn market was light, and the price center of gravity continued to move slightly downward, except for polyester yarn. There is not much downstream procurement, and the stock before May Day can not be compared with previous years.

According to the domestic yarn inventory, China's yarn inventory is far more than that of the same period last year, due to supply and demand.

　　 This week, the grey fabric market remained weak, the price fell slightly, and the overall market confidence was insufficient. The May 1 Factory is facing a wide range of holidays. The actual production capacity in Guangdong has been released by only about 20-25%. About 30-40% in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, and 30-40% in the northern part of the country, the country's start-up has dropped to about 30%, and production capacity may continue to decrease during May 1. If there is no order support, the price of yarn will continue to fall, and the phenomenon of cut down or increase will be increased.

Pricing structure and arbitrage analysis

　　 As of April 30th, the domestic CY C32 price of 18850 yuan / ton fell 220 yuan / ton this week, India C32S price 18800 yuan / ton (0), price difference 50, no arbitrage opportunities.

[technical analysis]

　　 The price of cotton yarn CY009 contract is at the bottom this week, the highest price this week is 18900 yuan / ton, the lowest price is 18345 yuan / ton. In April 30th, the closing price of cotton yarn 09 contract was 18755 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton compared with 27 days. Holding 6588 hands, compared with 27 days to reduce 629 hands.

[outlook]

This week cotton yarn main CY009 contract price shocks at the bottom side plate, amplitude interval 17800 yuan / ton -19350 yuan / ton. The downstream enterprises have a wide range of holidays for 3-15 days, the price is weak, and the inquiry and proofing situation of the export orders of textile mills has increased slightly, but the overall orders have not improved.