After The Festival, The Weaving Factory Is In A Contradiction Between Radical And Uneasy.

During the May 1 holiday, crude oil and polyester began to warm up, and opened up a wave of rising prices.

So what caused the rise of polyester?

When the good news is released, polyester is rising.

The rise in polyester is actually driven by the rise in crude oil futures. The international crude oil futures rebounded strongly. The US oil June contract rose 6 days, rising from 12 US dollars per barrel to 25 US dollars / barrel. After the recent liquidity crisis in the crude oil market, the production reduction agreement of the major oil producing countries came into force, which provided strong support for oil prices and began a strong rebound in the low position.

Crude oil, as the raw material of the polyester market, has a cost driving effect on polyester products. Before the May 1 holiday, the impact of the protective clothing fabric is very high, and the specifications of polyester filament have been raised by about 50 yuan per ton. The replenishment atmosphere of the downstream weaving factory is picking up.

In addition, the multinational countries outside Shanghai announced that they would begin to relax the blockade measures to control the epidemic. In May 4th, a number of governments in Italy, Finland and the United States took action to relax the blockade measures. To restart the economy. As well as the Ningbo PTA device accident, involving about 700 thousand tons of capacity, under the stimulation of this series of good news, the market has restored some confidence, and polyester has opened up a rising channel.

Moreover, the polyester price is at a low level. If we can see the continuous rise of polyester, the downstream stocking atmosphere will continue to heat up. Chemical fiber plant saw this rare continuous rise, naturally hope to stimulate the downstream stock through price increases.

How long can this polyester wave continue?

Terminal orders missing, become the biggest resistance of polyester rise.

The textile market is still decided by the downstream orders. The order of the terminal is deficient, and the purchasing strength can not keep up. At present, the rise of polyester is probably just a flash in the pan.

Although Europe has rebounded somewhat, it has gone down again, but the epidemic in the United States has not improved significantly. Many traders also said that Europe and the United States had not yet resumed the order, even the proofing notice. It can be seen that clothing demand recovery in Europe and the United States will take some time.

Since the end of April, some anti epidemic products, such as polyester taffeta, spring Asian spinning and Oxford cloth, can be used to make protective clothing and shroud bags, which are starting to be hot. Hundreds of thousands of meters are easily placed down. Orders from manufacturers are just needed to replenish them. But this is only limited to the production of these grey cloth manufacturers can receive orders, market improvement is not obvious. Gross For a long time, manufacturers will continue to face the shortage of orders, and the inventory of grey fabrics will rise.

Judging from the situation of Chinese silk net monitoring, At present, the fabric inventory of weaving factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces has risen to 43 days, up 6 days from 37 days in the same period last year, up 20 days from the same period of the same period last year, and now the stock of grey fabric has risen to a high level in the past three years. High is terrified.

Grey cloth is money, can not sell, money is pressed into the warehouse, but the loom is still constantly producing, which makes weaving manufacturers really pressure mountain. With less and less liquid capital on hand, there is no sufficient cash to store raw materials. This is also the biggest drag on polyester.

The demand is not reliable, and the price increase is in vain.

In fact, for cloth boss, the most desired situation is that raw materials are rising and cloth prices can go up. This is the real profit.

From the current situation, the rise of cloth prices is lagging behind, and it is very difficult to rise. Or because of the lack of orders, cloth can not sell, what is the rise? A cloth boss with more than 100 looms said: " Unless the raw material has gone up a lot, it is difficult to keep up with the fabric, and the production capacity of the grey fabric is too high. Many manufacturers' stocks are exploding, and demand is decreasing. Now we buy high raw materials, low price cloth, and our profit has not improved. We have done four rounds of ammunition, and from now on, the price has dropped by 7%-8%. I dare not increase the price of cloth. "

Under the suppression of two big mountains with high inventory and low demand, the pressure of gray cloth rising is very large. Many cloth owners say that even if the raw material is up 500, the grey cloth will not rise. In addition, the current epidemic situation has not yet been fully controlled, and the local market is not hot enough to drive the whole market to a better turn. Most manufacturers adopt the strategy of purchasing and purchasing, which is more prudent in procurement.

Future prospects are uncertain, weaving companies need to be cautious about hoarding goods.

In the short term, with the support of crude oil and the rising trend of polyester, it is obvious that some enterprises with sufficient financial strength may want to hoard raw materials. Of course, if the capital is ample, they can take advantage of the opportunity to hoard a bit, and then invest in it. Those who lack sufficient funds think that the most important thing is to keep the capital pool now, and the future of crude oil and polyester. The prospect is not very clear. There is a risk of falling. In the absence of a substantial improvement in terminal demand, Xiaobian believes that it should not be too radical.