May Good Support But Supply And Demand Is Still Unbalanced Polyester Filament Market Continues To Play

During the May 1 holiday, international oil prices continued to rise. As the market eased the global economic restart expectations and the shortage of oil storage space, it was boosted by the gradual resumption of the economy and the continuous reduction of crude oil production. Oil prices have completed a fifth day continuous "five Lian Yang" trend, setting a record of the longest consecutive days since July last year.

Driven by international oil prices, polyester raw materials prices also began to rebound. Polyester filament reinforced here, the price rose 250-500 yuan / ton. At the same time, production and marketing broke many hundred days, reaching a maximum of 300%.

Such a hot market, really let the market crazy again! But many people wonder how much water this market has been injected.

Liu flower is unknown, crude oil market "cautiously optimistic", polyester products low position

Energy analyst Michael Tran said in a report on Tuesday that the re opening of the economy around the world has undoubtedly injected a certain degree of "cautious optimism" in the oil market, and there is reason to believe that the most serious imbalance between supply and demand is over. At the same time, traders said that after doubling in five days, the rise in oil prices had lost momentum, and worries about the long and uncertain recovery have offset the optimism that the reduction would ease oversupply.

New York's futures fell to $24 a barrel in Asian trading after rising 20% on Tuesday to its highest level in nearly a month. Diamondback Energy Inc. and Parsley Energy Inc. have become two new drilling companies that cut production in the largest shale oil field in the United States, but they said they would consider resuming production if oil prices rose to more than $30 a barrel.

OPEC+ began implementing 9 million 700 thousand barrels of daily production reduction measures in May 1st, easing fears that crude oil and fuel storage space will be depleted. Morgan Stanley believes that oversupply may have reached its peak, but the market oversupply may persist for several weeks.

Although the worst of the oil market may be over, most analysts believe that it will take at least a year to restore the consumption level before the epidemic, and some even wonder whether this will happen. In the United States, with the reopening of States, the risk of second outbreaks is not to be underestimated.

At the same time, crude oil is the most basic raw material of polyester products, and its price almost doubled, which will naturally drive up the products of the downstream polyester industry chain. But since 2020, due to the impact of the global market environment, recently, many domestic chemical fiber raw material prices have declined to varying degrees. Although some raw materials prices have risen, but from the development of applied fields, the price increases are all emergency products.

Most of the prices of raw materials have declined to varying degrees, for example, the domestic PTA market has been declining, breaking new lows in April. Ethylene glycol, polyester filament and other textile related products have achieved a new low in recent years.

On the other hand, although the downstream market has begun to warm up earlier, compared with the normal situation, the weaving Market is still in the situation of supply exceeding demand, and the situation of high inventory and heavy stock has not been fundamentally reversed. Under such circumstances, the situation of weaving enterprises will be even more likely to drop or even shut down. Once this happens, it will be a great blow to the stock of polyester factories or polyester filament.

Multi space interweaving, the upper and lower reaches of the May game is more intense.

The change of crude oil price has a certain impact on the chemical fiber industry. The more downstream products, the slower the effect of crude oil price changes, the smaller the scope, and the need for a certain conduction process. On the other hand, the relationship between supply and demand has also had an impact on the prices of raw materials, and the impact is even more obvious. In the first quarter, the collapse of crude oil at the cost end and the contradiction between oversupply and oversupply aggravated the decline of downstream petrochemical products. Many petrochemical products prices fell to a historical low level. Crude benzene and ethylene glycol had been cut off, and most enterprises had cost upside down and high inventory. In the face of serious backlog of inventory, enterprises are forced to reduce their prices to inventory. Under the vicious circle, it is possible for the petrochemical industry to step down.

Entering the May, the market is still good. After all, the reduction of oil producers and the joint production of OPEC+, coupled with the partial recovery of oil demand, as the most favorable short-term release of international crude oil in the upstream of the industrial chain, the price of polyester raw materials and even polyester filament has been supported. In addition, judging from the current market feedback, the price of polyester filament should continue to rise, or the demand for terminal clothing will be improved, or the power of upstream support will be strong enough.

Although the market concentration of polyester filament is very high, the market can never escape the "supply-demand relationship", so the rising space is limited by the recovery of weaving and bomb industry. However, from the current situation, the environment is still going to take time, and it may be necessary to consider the large-scale lifting of the seal and even the global economic recovery. Even if the economy is resumed, the risk of recovery will be greatly increased and the risk of the spread of the disease will be greatly increased, which will bring new risks to the future economy. Due to the serious imbalance between supply and demand, oil prices may still linger near the low of 20 US dollars in the near future.

In terms of polyester raw materials, the upward effect is still very limited. After all, there is no payment for downstream customers. Even if the price rises, there is no market price, and the choice is "less" or "thanks to". No one will dare to play it lightly. The wait and see situation will continue for a long time. Of course, in the short term, the price of polyester filament is not big enough. After a long time, the polyester filament has fallen to a very low position, and the pressure on its own stock is not strong enough.

In any case, entering the market in May will enter the stage of upstream and downstream game. Who will win? (source: China Securities Network, China Securities Daily, network)