Wei Jianguo, Former Vice Minister Of Commerce: China'S Imports Will Exert Force In May And June.

According to recent statistics from China Customs, the volume of China's exports increased unexpectedly by 8.2% in April, but the import volume dropped by 10.2%. Two data "one liter and one drop" caused some people's concerns about the recovery of China's economy under the epidemic situation.

Wei Jianguo, deputy expert of the CGGT, the Vice Minister of the Ministry of Commerce and vice director of the China International Economic Exchange Center, said that the figures for April are only temporary. China's import force will start in May and June, and the annual import will still achieve two digit growth. China's trade policy will further drive global economic development and become the main engine of global economic recovery.

Today, the CGGT has published an exclusive analysis of Mr. Wei Jianguo's analysis of the import situation in China for reference to readers concerned about the impact of the epidemic on China's foreign trade.

Recently, the customs and Excise Department released the import and export trade data in April. Most experts and scholars were surprised that China exported 1 trillion and 400 billion, and its growth rate was 8.2%. However, the "big surprise" of imports was only 1 trillion and 90 billion, down 10.2% from the same period last year, far exceeding expectations.

In addition, the import trend of China's commodities has also been divided. Imports fell by 3.2% in 1-4 months, and the decline was 2.5 percentage points higher than that in the first quarter. Among them, imports of crude oil, natural gas and refined oil decreased by 7.4%, 13.7% and 25.7%, respectively, bringing the import growth by 0.9, 0.3 and 0.3 percentage points respectively, but the imports of integrated circuits, iron ore and coal increased 14%, 15.9% and 20.6% respectively.

Because of the downward trend of China's imports, many people believe that China's imports will become increasingly low with the development of the epidemic, and a pessimistic view of China's domestic demand will be sluggish.

In fact, I think China's imports will show a "blowout" development after the outbreak. The figures for April are only temporary. China's import force will start in May and June, and imports will reach two digit growth throughout the year. The reasons are as follows:

First, with the improvement of China's epidemic situation and the acceleration of resumption of production and resumption of production, China's import of bulk commodities has steadily recovered. In particular, with the introduction of new infrastructure and large-scale projects proposed by the central government, imports of coal, iron ore, copper and other bulk commodities will grow steadily.

Recently, customs data showed that in the first 4 months, China imported 3.6 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 5.4%, 1.7 million tons of crude oil, an increase of 1.7%, 1.3 billion tons of coal, an increase of 26.9%, 4 million 184 thousand tons of steel, 7.4% increase, and an increase of 10.4% tons of UN wrought copper and copper.

In addition, judging from the investment situation of the third import fair, the number of exhibitors and multinational companies will be more than ever this year. It also indicates that China will increase its import intensity.

Second, with the improvement of China's epidemic situation, consumption of most cities is starting to start, and daily necessities will show a need of "blowout". Mainly in China's imports of high-end consumer goods, agricultural products, seafood and pharmaceutical products will be greatly increased.

In the 1-3 month, the fastest growth of China's imports was meat products, reaching 2 million 170 thousand tons, with an amount of US $7 billion 800 million, an increase of 137.8% compared with the same period last year. After the import of pharmaceutical products, imports reached US $8 billion 800 million, an increase of 11.7% over the same period last year. The import value of textiles and yarn yarn was 3 billion 970 million US dollars, an increase of 10.3%. These are daily necessities. With the gradual opening of the domestic market, imports will increase.

In addition, China's pulp stock has been used up in 2019, and pulp imports will increase by 100-150 tons this year. Customs data show that in March 2020, China's pulp import volume was 2 million 680 thousand tons, and total 1-3 tons in March, representing an increase of 32.3% compared with the same period last year.

Third, the first phase of Sino US economic and trade agreements will be implemented step by step and the countries along the "one belt and one road" will continue to promote imports. According to statistics from the US Department of agriculture in May 2nd, China imported 40 thousand and 200 tons of pork from the United States, which is the largest purchase record in nearly 6 months. China will also increase imports of soybeans, cotton and beef from the United States.

In addition, China's imports from other countries along the belt road are also bright spots. Customs statistics show that between 1 and April this year, China and the countries along the belt and road have imported 1 trillion and 250 billion yuan, an increase of 2.7% over the same period last year, showing a positive trend in the overall downturn. Secondly, from 1 to April this year, China imported 608 billion 510 million yuan from ASEAN, an increase of 8%, and imports from Russia were 20 billion 421 million dollars, up 7% over the same period. Next, with the recovery of other countries' economies, China's imports will continue to recover.

Fourth, with the development of China's new infrastructure, the new and old energy conversion will increase imports. From March 29th to April 1st, when general secretary Xi Jinping visited Zhejiang, he suggested that we should seize the opportunities given by industrial digitalization and digital industrialization, speed up the construction of new infrastructure such as 5G network and data center, and seize the strategic emerging industries and future industries such as digital economy, life and health, new materials, vigorously promote scientific and technological innovation, and strive to expand new growth points and form new development. Kinetic energy.

In addition, in the process of coping with the epidemic, new technologies such as 5G, cloud computing, big data and artificial intelligence have created more yuan and richer application scenarios. It has spawned and promoted the rapid development of many new industries, and will also boost import growth.

China's trade policy will further drive global economic development and become the main engine of global economic recovery. The increase in China's imports has made global economic development see hope and see the future. Therefore, this year's import will not only decrease, but also achieve two digit growth.