PTA: Going To The Library Dawn Is Expected To Reproduce

The fluctuation of crude oil price is still PTA The main melody followed. Saudi Arabia, the main oil producer, is committed to Six Further reduction in production One hundred Million barrels / Meanwhile, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates also promised additional cuts. Eighteen Million barrels / Day, the market thinks this will encourage others. OPEC+ Oil producing countries comply with the provisions of production cuts or even increase voluntary production cuts, helping to speed up the balance of the global oil market and form more support for the market. But at the same time, we must pay close attention to the impact of public health events on the progress of the resumption of work, which will directly affect whether the demand for crude oil can be landed.

At present, PTA Start up 90.44% The high level of supply and demand is still in a state of little accumulation. But with the continuous release of the device maintenance information, Six The dawn of the month is expected to emerge. See table for details. One 。

surface One The near future PTA Device maintenance schedule

Source: lung Chung

As can be seen from table 1, there are several maintenance plans in June, but at present, the processing fee is at a high level of 700-800 yuan. According to the existing equipment maintenance schedule, it is estimated that the supply and demand gap of PTA will be around 25-30 tons in May if all of the above devices can be landed. If we add Tung Kun Jiaxing petrochemical plant in June, we expect that the PTA supply and demand gap will go to 30 thousand tons, but if Jiaxing Petrochemical is overhauled in July, then the supply and demand gap in June will only accumulate 40 thousand tons. From this we can see that the supply and demand library has been alleviated, and whether the PTA can be used to go to the warehouse in the late stage, the landing of the device maintenance is very important. In addition, there is no exclusion of other devices.

From polyester point of view, polyester has 1 million 850 thousand tons of new equipment put into production, and in the end of the two quarter, there are still three sets of equipment planned to be put into operation, Honghong 250 thousand tons of Sheng Hong Gang will be put into operation at the end of May, and Hainan Yisheng 500 thousand tons plan will be put into operation in early June and Haining 250 thousand ton will be put into operation at the end of June. Therefore, the demand side will remain good support.

On the whole, the rise of macro and crude oil supports PTA price trend. From the perspective of supply and demand, the magnitude of short-term PTA storage is expected to shrink, gradually improving, and the improvement of supply and demand structure will have some support for the market in the short term. However, the production of the Hengli line 5 will be put into operation in the latter half of June and half of the production capacity will be put into operation later.