Polyester Filament? Look At The Crude Oil! Chemical Fiber Raw Material "Eager To Try", Polyester Factory Out Of The Haze?

Last month, the WTI crude oil futures contract in May hit the most frantic selling in history. It was the first time in the history of the world's negative oil price, and I believe all traders have a vivid view. Since the beginning of this year, worries about excess oil market have not dissipated, and crude oil prices continue to decline as the epidemic is out of control. In the crude oil market, when most people look at the empty market, the good fortune of raw material market in recent days has poured into a strong booster for the endless market bulls. On the 18 day, the WTI crude oil futures rose more than 12% in the June contract day, and the WTI crude oil futures contract rose to over 10% at about 10 last night in July.

Plot reversal? Oil prices continue to rise, to increase the number of varieties of plates.

For the June crude oil futures contract, which rose sharply near the maturity date, analysts said that WTI crude oil rebounded. Due to the restriction of logistics, the short sellers could not make delivery in the market. This contrasts sharply with last month. Today's oil prices reflect the optimism of the market. WTI

Currie, Jeffrey Currie, Goldman Sachs, said oil demand could rise to more than supply by the end of this month. He pointed out that this is largely due to the reduction in production of all major oil producing countries. But Currie added that about 1 billion 200 million barrels of crude oil stocks need to be reduced before the oil price picks up. He believes that this will take place in three stages.

The first reduction will be floating storage floating on the sea. This is the most expensive method of oil storage. Therefore, dealers and manufacturers will be able to solve it first in order to save tanker costs. It will happen some time in the third quarter of this year, curry said. The total amount of oil removed from floating storage tanks will be about 450 million barrels. Corey said that in the fourth quarter of this year, onshore oil storage will start to decrease as many as 400 million barrels.

At the same time, the news of rising oil prices stimulated the recovery of bulk polyester raw materials. At present, the supply and demand of PTA market is tight and suppliers are very expensive. From the cost side, the short-term market will certainly enhance the price of polyester market. Affected 19 days PTA, ethylene glycol ended many days of falling prices, have a good increase; in addition, domestic polyester filament market prices also showed a slight upward trend. Upstream polyester raw materials such as shock and strong support, polyester spinning factory steadily increase the price of polyester, the range of 50-100 yuan / ton.

Can the oil market go up to the breathing market of the polyester market with heavy load and pressure? Can the pet market retaliate with a good boost?

From the downstream demand side, a large number of speculative purchases last month prompted a sharp rise in the terminal production and marketing rate, thereby pushing the stock of finished polyester products down from a historic high and the pressure on inventories eased significantly. However, after the above speculative buying vanished, terminal consumption did not improve significantly. The inventory reduced before the festival was not consumed by the terminal enterprises, and the probability of human hoarding was large. In addition, the start-up rate of polyester enterprises has been gradually improved. With the surge in operating rate of short fiber enterprises, the overall stock of polyester enterprises has improved, but the operating rate of filament and bottle chip enterprises has remained stable basically.

In April, the profits of domestic polyester enterprises gradually dropped from the previous high point. At this stage, only DTY can make profits, and POY and FDY are near the breakeven line. At present, from the perspective of the epidemic situation in Europe and America, the peak has passed, the expected resumption of production is stronger, and orders for the downstream market have been partially released, which will promote the demand for textile and clothing in the later stage.

As far as PTA is concerned, in the past quarter, domestic PTA's social stock accumulated nearly 1 million 800 thousand tons, and absolute inventory reached a record high. More importantly, in the near future, the spot processing fee of domestic PTA is obviously higher than that of March. When the upstream is larger than the downstream, the price difference between PTA and PX is expanding continuously. The processing fee is basically between 600-800 yuan / ton in the month, and the above mentioned labor cost is at a high level in the case of continuous expansion of capacity. This also directly causes the enthusiasm of PTA production enterprises to go up and start within a month. The highest load climbed to 92%, which further aggravated the accumulation of domestic PTA social inventory. In addition, the price difference between upstream PX and naphtha fell to nearly $240 / tonne from nearly $300 / tonne at the beginning of the month, and then rebounded to near $270 / tonne. The difference between them was at a relatively reasonable level. As futures continue to rise in the spot, and thus lead to the production of PTA sold to the futures market, the exchange registered warehouse receipts increased rapidly, the pressure of future delivery is obvious.

From the point of view of MEG, the accumulative speed of MEG inventory in the East China port area has slowed down in the recent stage, and has fallen to 1 million 170 thousand tons in the month after reaching the highest level of 1 million 250 thousand tons, which is mainly affected by the slow unloading of ports and the early clearance of part of the contract capacity, but the port's high inventory will continue. From the point of view of production profit, because naphtha is obviously in a weak position, the profit of naphtha MEG continues to maintain high, the highest being over 100 US dollars / ton, and the lowest profit is also close to 50 US dollars / ton. However, when the price of coal is far less than that of crude oil, the loss of coal MEG enterprises is serious, and most of them are lost to cash flow, resulting in a sharp decline in the operating rate of coal enterprises to around 35%. This also alleviates the pressure of domestic supply to a certain extent.

The price of crude oil has rebounded, and the polyester market has not been humbled at last.

At present, crude oil prices have rebounded sharply, which has greatly boosted the commodity market. As the source of the whole polyester industry chain, the influence of the market on sentiment can not be underestimated.

Although the market is in a stalemate for a long time, polyester appears to be very humbled, but still can only look at the "face" of crude oil. If crude oil rises, the downstream market will generally ease the bearish situation, and the willingness to buy goods will be greatly improved. The supply of the market will be increased and the market will get better. The rapid development of all these functions lies in the fact that crude oil is still the main determinant of polyester industry chain.

In addition, considering that the worst time in the downstream market has passed, the release of European and American countries has a positive effect on the market, but the traditional peak season has already passed. With the repeated outbreak of the epidemic, the foreign trade orders in the market are still weak, and the demand for replenishment of polyester and terminal weaving Market is still weak. Overall, the recent fluctuations in the polyester market are the demand for a return to fundamentals on the basis of interlocking factors, and the basic balance between supply and demand is still the trend.

Therefore, the old saying goes: whether the market is OK or not, it is still necessary to see that crude oil is not given strength, otherwise everything will be floating clouds. On the whole, deep changes in the pattern of supply and demand have laid a strong pattern of crude oil, and the volatility of the global economic situation has further increased the market's worries. But at the same time, the industry also said that the current price of crude oil continued to rise, the mentality of both sides of supply and demand are very delicate. But for now, if the price of crude oil can rebound sharply, the polyester market will get better, and this optimism will continue to spread in the short run.