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The Polyester Filament That Has Risen 1000 Yuan / Ton A Month Will Come Down Next?

2020/5/27 12:32:00 2

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From the end of April to now, in less than a month, polyester filament has entered a rising channel. All kinds of products have risen to varying degrees. The increase of polyester FDY and polyester POY is nearly 1000 yuan.

After such a big rise, how the next price of polyester will change has become a problem of great concern to the textile industry.

Polyester price

From straight line down to interval fluctuation

Since the weaving enterprises began to resume production in February 21st, the price of polyester filament can be roughly divided into two stages.

The first stage is from late February to early April. During this period, the market confidence was missing due to factors such as the outbreak and the price war of oil producing countries. During that time, polyester prices plummeted.

The second stage is from the beginning of April to the present. During this time, the market was stimulated by sporadic good news in the context of the rapid spread of the epidemic, and the price of polyester had rebounded three times. In the early part of April, the crude oil production was cut down. The end of 4 was due to the resumption of production in Europe and the United States, while in late May it was partly because of the improvement of the market orders in early May.

And if the price of the latest wave of polyester rises in late May, will it be the same as the previous two times? Xiaobian analyzes it from several angles.

International oil price

The end of the rise, into the shock interval

Driven by the good results of the resumption of production in Europe and the United States, the international crude oil prices have rebounded sharply over the four weeks, which is the direct cause of the general inflation of polyester raw materials.

Last week, the US NYMEX WTI crude oil futures (CL) main contract closed at $33.6 / barrel on Friday, up 12.83% weekly; the international benchmark ICE Brent crude oil futures (OIL) main contract closed at $35.74 / barrel, and the week rose 9.1%.

However, on the 22 day, the international oil price ended seven consecutive rises and began to fall. As of the end of the day, the New York Mercantile Exchange delivered light crude oil futures in July, down 0.67 U.S. dollars, closing at $33.25 a barrel, or 1.98%. Brent crude oil futures for July delivery fell 0.93 US dollars to close at $35.13 a barrel, or 2.58%.

By May 25th, international oil prices had risen by about 1%.

At present, the international oil price round of the rise of the channel has ended, and began to enter the shock interval;

For a long time, The total number of new crown pneumonia in the world exceeds 5 million 300 thousand, of which more than 1 million 660 thousand in the United States, more than 230 thousand in Italy, and over 230 thousand in Spain. Under such circumstances, it is also uncertain whether the resumption of production can be carried out smoothly.

Therefore, in the next period of time, there will still be a sharp fall in international oil prices.

Polyester stock

The chain fell, but still higher than last year.

According to the statistics of China's silk net, the overall stock market of polyester market is concentrated in 23-33 days. In terms of specific products, POY stocks are stored for 15-22 days, FDY stocks are close to 16-22 days, while DTY stocks are about 24-34 days.

On the one hand, due to the impact of the epidemic, weaving enterprises are generally low in start-up rate, and the previous fall has made a lot of weaving enterprises not dare to stockpile raw materials. Today, the stock of polyester factories is higher than the same period in previous years.

But on the other hand, driven by the low production rate of polyester factories and the wave of market starting in April, A part of weaving enterprises changed the strategy of buying raw materials in the past with buying and using, chose to buy more raw materials, and some traders in the market also chose raw materials for bottom storage, and passed the pressure of part of polyester enterprises.

Therefore, for polyester factories, the intention to reduce polyester prices at present is not as urgent as in the early April.

Terminal demand

The impact of the epidemic has decreased, but the market has entered the off-season.

For weaving enterprises, whether there is order need in the downstream determines their confidence in the market and determines whether they have the luxury to purchase a large quantity of raw materials at a time.

For polyester factories, only the downstream weaving enterprises bought their money, they had the courage to support the current polyester price.

During the past two weeks' visit, From late April to early May, the demand in the market improved considerably compared with that in March and April. From the point of view of order composition, the number of internal orders was much higher than that of foreign orders.

However, it didn't last long. By the middle of May, the number of orders began to decrease rapidly, mainly because the market entered the traditional off-season. According to past experience, the off-season usually lasted until the end of August.

In a bad market year, weaving companies often choose to reduce operating rates in the off-season to reduce inventory and capital pressure. This year's market can be said to be the worst in nearly more than 10 years. Next, weaving enterprises choose to reduce construction is a big probability event.

Therefore, the demand for raw materials in the weaving market may not increase or decrease in the next few months, which may cause some pressure on the price of polyester filament.
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afterword

On the one hand, the rise of polyester filament should have come to an end. The spread of the epidemic and the coming of the off-season will also reduce the price of polyester to a certain extent. But on the other hand, the stock pressure of polyester factories has been greatly alleviated than in February and March, and the price cut is not strong enough, so the price reduction may not be as big as that expected by the bosses.

On the whole, in the long run, as the market is gradually reduced by the epidemic, the price of polyester filament will probably be in a spiral upward trend with a big rise, a small drop, a big rise and a small drop under the impact of a wave market.