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Cotton Prices Lowest In Nearly Ten Years In 2020

2020/5/27 12:58:00 0

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Recently, with the increasing number of lifting blockade, the resumption of export growth in the US, the rising load of textile enterprises in the lower reaches of the country, and the slight improvement in overseas orders, cotton prices have gone out of a wave of rebound. However, what is not to be overlooked is that the current cotton prices are still in the downstream channel. Bottom, overall, this year's domestic cotton market is in a weak market pattern.

Since the beginning of this year, domestic and foreign cotton futures prices have entered the downward channel, and prices have fallen. According to long Zhong monitoring data, as of May 22nd, domestic cotton spot price (3128B cotton standard) reached 11950 yuan / ton, down 1750 yuan / ton, or 12.77%, compared with the beginning of the year, and the spot price of cotton in April 2nd reached the lowest level of 11000 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the year, it dropped 2700 yuan / ton, or 19.71%. Over the same period, the trend of domestic and foreign cotton futures prices showed a downward trend since the beginning of this year. In the early and middle stages, the decline of cotton prices in Zhengzhou and cotton was weaker than those in outer cotton, but both were in a state of falling cliff. As of May 22nd, the main force of Zhengzheng cotton was around 11600 yuan / ton, and the main US cotton hovering at 57 cents / pound.

The weak market situation of cotton is particularly evident in the current basis. Generally speaking, taking into account warehousing, capital occupation and other reasons, the cost of cotton warehouse receipt determines that its price is higher than the spot price of cotton, and the current base is at a negative positive market. However, when the cotton spot market is stronger, the market price is upside down, and this is the case in the first quarter of this year. At the beginning of the year, the base point price resources were generally transported, but by the collapse of the global financial market, Zheng cotton accelerated its decline, and the cotton spot market prices lagged behind, leading to a shift in the cotton futures market base from the positive market to the reverse market, and the current base difference also expanded rapidly. As of March 19th, the cotton main force touched 11095 yuan / ton, and the base level expanded to more than 1000 yuan. Because of the obvious advantages of cotton futures spot trading, part of the lower reaches of the market are going into the bottom market, and the cotton warehouse receipts continue to flow out.

After analyzing the fluctuation of cotton spot prices in the past ten years, we found that cotton is a product with frequent price fluctuations, and the average price of cotton has changed significantly every year. Judging from the price performance, by the end of May, the lowest annual average annual price of cotton took place this year, the highest annual average price of cotton in 2010. However, judging from the fluctuation range and other indicators, in fact, except for cotton prices falling to the lowest level in nearly ten years this year, the overall fluctuation of prices did not jump out of their normal state as agricultural products. The fluctuation coefficient of cotton this year is only 10.06%, which is lower than that in 2010, 2014 and 2015. Therefore, in the early days when the vulnerable cotton prices had bottomed out, the market participants were psychologically acceptable for the risk of falling prices and the wide concussion of short-term cotton prices. Before the new cotton market was launched this year, the possibility of repeated shocks of cotton prices was relatively large and there was a demand for a return of 12500 yuan / ton median line.