Review And Outlook Of Viscose Staple Fiber Market In May 2020

Market Review

Viscose staple prices rose steadily in May, while the downstream mills had a small amount of replenishment, but the market purchasing power was still effective, and the inventory of manufacturers was obvious, and prices could not continue to rise. At the end of the month, the price of the mid end product was 8800-8900 yuan / ton, and the high-end was 9300-9500 yuan / ton, compared with last month, the price rose 200 yuan / ton, or not much.

Viscose staple fiber market in May is still in general. At the beginning of the month, the market turnover was slack, the whole industry chain was more inventory, prices continued to decline, just needed poor performance, the purchasing power of downstream cotton mills was weak, bearish sentiment continued to decline, prices showed signs of slump, mid end viscose staple prices were 8500-8700 yuan / ton, high-end 8800-9000 yuan / ton. The market lacks the stimulation of demand, and the overall confidence is insufficient. In the middle of the month, the stock in the early stage of the cotton mill was in a low position, so the enthusiasm for purchasing began to improve, and some mills made a small amount of replenishment. The manufacturers were reluctant to sell at a low price. The price increased slightly, and the price of the middle end market rose to 8800-9000 yuan / ton, and the high-end market was 9300-9500 yuan / ton. Although viscose staple fiber industry has been in a deficit space, manufacturers are pushing up stronger intentions, but the downstream is not strong enough, and the pressure of oversupply of the market has not changed, resulting in the price of viscose staple fiber can not continue to rise. Near the end of the month, the market is still flat buying, the lower cotton mill start-up rate is generally not high, manufacturers need to buy more, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the price is maintained early, at the end of the month, the price of the middle end manufacturers is 8800-8900 yuan / ton, the high-end factory said the transaction price is not lower than 9600 yuan / ton.

Two, viscose staple production capacity

From the supply side, the viscose staple fiber started to maintain at around 61% in May. Due to the low market position, the inventory volume rose sharply, and some factories overloaded and began to overhaul. In the middle of the month, a small round of replenishment operations was carried out. The new unit sales reached 7, and the market mentality recovered slightly. But with the new unit sales rate continued to be low, manufacturers are difficult to make production and marketing level, stocks rose slightly, the industry once again entered the stage of tired inventory, up to the end of the month, the industry inventory rose to about 51 days, the manufacturers said that the inventory pressure is large, in the case of most of the obvious loss of profits of enterprises, viscose staple fiber lack of obvious reduction of negative insurance price expectations.

Three, viscose staple cash flow changes

From the cost side, the upstream raw material prices remained stable in May. Because of the low operating rate and limited output, short staple causes cotton seed price to be strong. The price of long velvet in Shandong is 3500-3600 yuan / ton, and the price in Xinjiang area is 3100-3200 yuan / ton. In terms of dissolving pulp, due to the relatively weak market performance, some domestic dissolving pulp was converted to produce chemical pulp, and the manufacturers had strong intention to stock. Now the domestic dissolving pulp price is 5300-5500 yuan / ton, the price of dissolving pulp is relatively stable, the mainstream broadleaf pulp price is 640-650 dollars / ton, and the needle leaf pulp is 660-670 dollars / ton.

According to the current 5200 yuan / ton of cotton pulp, the production loss is set to be 3% of the conventional market. The viscose staple made of raw material costs only 5356 yuan / ton, plus the processing cost of 7000 yuan / ton, the cost of 1.5D viscose staple fiber is as high as 12356 yuan / ton. And viscose staple negotiable price is in 8800 yuan / ton, manufacturer deficit space is magnified apparently.

Four, downstream cotton yarn situation

In May, the price of rayon yarns fell slightly with viscose staple prices. In the beginning of the month, although the weak potential, the cotton yarn quotation began to stabilize, the sales atmosphere was weak, the market mentality was more confused, resulting in the price of cotton yarn also falling, and the downward trend was difficult to stop, and the phenomenon of vortex spinning oversold 500-1000 yuan / ton. As the terminal market is still in the off-season, the cotton mill has cut down production operations, and the mentality of intermediate trade hoarding is not good. The market trading atmosphere has further dropped. Now, Xiaoxu weaving 30S offers 12350 yuan / ton, the knitting 30S price is 12600 yuan / ton, and the cotton mill lacks the support of demand. Short term short air atmosphere is thicker.

Five, outlook for the future

In May, the entire textile industry was weak. As a staple textile material, viscose staple was also hard to escape. At present, the overcapacity of the whole viscose industry chain is still serious, the supply of the market is loose, and the downstream needs are purchased, which leads to the atmosphere of the whole trading is not warm, and the market confidence is missing. Viscose short fiber volume and price also led to the start load fell to the lowest level in the year, the price has also hit a historical low, for the manufacturers after the loss of large quantities of the intention of shipment is not strong, plus, according to the traditional procurement cycle, mid June before or after the market will enter the shipping cycle again, because the price fell little space, the viscose staple fiber in June is expected to continue the trend of consolidation in May, low-level shocks. Mainly.