Overall Foreign Trade Fell In May: Exports Of Masks And Other Commodities Surged, And Commodity Prices Were Sluggish.

Original title: the overall trend of foreign trade in May has been unchanged for a long time.

If the market expects, import and export in May will drop as a whole. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs in June 7th, the import and export volume of foreign trade in May was 2 trillion and 470 billion yuan, down 4.9% from the same period last year, a drop of 4.2 percentage points higher than that in April. Among them, imports fell by 12.7% over the same period last year, lower than market expectations. Exports still maintain a positive growth range. However, affected by the continued downturn in overseas demand, the revival of foreign trade is still pending.

Exports of masks and other textile products surged

According to customs statistics, in the first 5 months of this year, the total value of imports and exports of China's goods trade was 11 trillion and 540 billion yuan, down 4.9% from the same period last year, and the decline was flat compared with the previous 4 months.

"2, in March, we did not resume work and resumed production, resulting in delays in orders. In April, there was a shortage of orders, and this effect appeared mainly in 5 and June." Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce and international trade and economic cooperation, told the Beijing Commercial Daily reporter.

Export figures were revised in May compared with exports exceeding expectations in April. Market analysis pointed out that in April exports exceeded expectations in part due to backlog of orders. In May, the data reflected the lagging impact of global demand. In the coming one to two quarters, the downward pressure on external demand is still one of the important topics of economic work.

However, compared with market expectations, export performance remained in the growth range in May. According to the agency's forecast, the export growth rate in May is generally negative. In the case of sharp reduction in overseas orders, it is not easy to maintain export growth.

Among them, the export of masks and other anti epidemic materials played a supporting role in foreign trade. According to customs data, exports of textiles including masks accounted for 406 billion 660 million yuan in the first 5 months, an increase of 25.5%.

Pang Chaoran, an Associate Research Fellow of the Ministry of Commerce, said that part of the export growth in May was mainly driven by the export growth of masks and other textiles. In the month of May, textile exports, including masks, increased nearly 10 percentage points of total exports.

"In the first 5 months, the export of other textile products such as masks decreased by 8.3% in real terms, which is more consistent with the low level of PMI's new export orders to 33.5 in April, which mainly reflects the impact of external demand decline, orders reduction, orders instability, and the delay effect of order completion." Pang Chaoran told the Beijing Business Daily reporter.

Commodity prices slump

In contrast, imports in May were in a doldrums. The latest data show that China's imports fell by 12.7% in May, not expected.

From the perspective of specific products, the General Administration of Customs said that imports of iron ore, crude oil, natural gas, soybeans and other commodities increased and the average import price of bulk commodities fell below. For example, in the first 5 months, China imported 2.16 million tons of crude oil, an increase of 5.2%, the average import price was 2567.4 yuan per ton, down 21.2%; imports of natural gas 40 million 120 thousand tons, an increase of 1.9%, the average import price of 2642.1 yuan per ton, decreased by 14.7%; imports of vehicles (including chassis) 278 thousand vehicles, reduced 36.9%, worth 278 thousand yuan, declined.

Pang Chaoran said that imports in May were mainly affected by the decline of commodities such as oil and gas. In the month of May, crude oil imports totaled 570 billion 690 million yuan, accounting for 56.5% of total imports, and crude oil import prices fell 8.9%, dragging up 10.8 percentage points of imports.

In the new era, the macro research team analysis pointed out that in the first quarter, the enterprises were passive replenishment stocks. Under the high inventory level, the enterprises in the two quarter mainly focused on stock elimination. Meanwhile, domestic demand was only compensatory compensation, and the business was expected to improve but still cautious. The demand for imports was not strong.

In the view of Bai Ming, the impact of the epidemic on the Chinese economy in the first quarter was relatively large. Although the two quarter has recovered, it is mainly to expand the recovery of domestic demand. "European and American countries have not resumed their production and resumed production. We import some goods from these countries, especially e-commerce, which are greatly affected, and are also affected by logistics factors such as air transportation and shipping."

Gradual recovery of foreign trade environment

The epidemic has caused a total impact on global production and demand, and has stabilized the basic foreign trade market. Since this year, a series of policy initiatives have been issued at various levels, among which the most important thing is to stabilize the main body of foreign trade.

Bai Ming analysis said that the government departments support foreign trade enterprises, give tax, rent, credit support, so that these enterprises can survive as much as possible, to stabilize the basic trade market.

In the previous May foreign trade data, the growth and proportion of private enterprises' imports and exports has increased. "Private enterprises import and export growth and share continues to rise, reflecting the current private enterprises' competitiveness in foreign trade and international market share gradually increased. This is closely related to China's long-term adherence to reform and opening up, constantly optimizing the business environment, and creating a good development space for the development of private enterprises. Pang Chaoran said.

At the same time, in developing a diversified international market, our trade with the "along the way" countries and ASEAN countries is more frequent. At present, ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 1 trillion and 700 billion yuan, an increase of 4.2%, accounting for 14.7% of China's total foreign trade.

"Although the global economic cycle has not yet fully recovered, there has been a partial hot spot in China, Japan and South Korea plus ASEAN's East Asian economic circle." Bai Ming said.

As for the next step in the trend of foreign trade, the Ministry of Commerce spokesman said last week that it is closely monitoring and judging. "At present, there are still many uncertainties. At the same time, China's foreign trade development has strong resilience, full potential, large room for maneuver, and long-term development trend has not changed.

In the view of Pang Chao ran, the prospect of import and export recovery in the future is gradually clear. On the export side, the Baltic dry bulk freight index has risen recently, and the PMI new export orders ring ratio has increased slightly in May. With the successive release of the government's release policy and the gradual recovery of the developed countries' economy, the demand for earlier suppressed demand has been gradually released, so that exports can transit. At the same time, the continued implementation of the first stage trade agreement and gradual recovery of domestic consumption will also boost import growth.