Crude Oil Meets "Ceiling"! PTA And Glycol Begin To Fall! Can The Price Of Polyester Rebound Further?

Since the beginning of April, the price of Brent crude oil has almost doubled, and the OPEC, Russia and allied countries have cut output by 9 million 700 thousand barrels per day. After the OPEC+ countries agreed to extend the implementation period of the production reduction agreement, international oil prices continued to rise, breaking through the $40 mark once.

　　 However, it did not last long. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates indicated that they did not intend to extend their voluntary additional production of 1 million 180 thousand barrels per day to the end of June, which affected the international oil prices in June 8th, and then began to shake.

As of the end of the day, the New York Mercantile Exchange delivered light crude oil futures in July, down 1.36 U.S. dollars, closing at $38.19 a barrel, or 3.44%. Brent crude oil futures for August delivery fell 1.50 US dollars to close at $40.80 a barrel, or 3.55%.

Under the influence of falling international oil prices, polyester raw material prices began to fall.

PTA futures, as of June 9th closing, PTA futures contract 2009 main contract closed at 3746 points, compared with the previous trading day fell 18 points, or 0.48%.

　　 Ethylene glycol futures, as of June 9th closing, ethylene glycol futures contract 2009 main closing price of 3709 points, compared with the previous trading day fell 58 points, or 1.54%.

　　 In June 10th, PTA and glycol futures continued to decline, but the decrease was slightly lower. Before this turn, the polyester industry chain went through a long wave of rally.

Driven by a sharp rebound in international oil prices and a slight improvement in domestic trading orders, prices of various products in the polyester industry chain have risen substantially since April.

Among them, the price of PTA rose by 565 yuan / ton, the price of ethylene glycol increased by 600 yuan / ton, the price of polyester FDY 150D rose by 1300 yuan / ton, the price of polyester POY 150D rose by 1015 yuan / ton, and the price of polyester DTY 150D rose 350 yuan / ton.

　　 The rebound in prices of polyester raw materials in the previous stage was mainly driven by international oil prices. Goldman Sachs believes that the current crude oil rebound rate is too fast, the world's crude oil still has a strong pressure to inventory.

Faced with the uncertainty of economic recovery and the resumption of shale oil production, oil prices will fall again in the short term. Oil prices are expected to fall to $35 / barrel in the next few weeks. This logic applies equally to polyester industry chain. However, in the end market has not fully recovered, polyester raw materials prices rise sharply in a short time, there are many hidden dangers.

　 From the inventory of grey cloth, According to the data monitoring of China silk net, the average inventory of weaving enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces is 42-43 days ago and is in the rising range.

　　 ? ? ? Polyester stocks, According to the statistics of China's silk net, the overall stock market of polyester market is concentrated in 22-32 days. In terms of specific products, POY stocks are stored for 13-20 days, FDY stocks are close to 15-21 days, while DTY stocks are about 23-33 days.

　　 You can see that Although there has been a slight decrease in the stock of polyester or grey fabrics after a wave of market, but the stock situation of polyester factories and weaving enterprises is still not optimistic, especially in weaving enterprises. The inventory pressure is even more obvious.

Where will the polyester price go?

In June 9th, when the price of PTA and glycol began to fall, the polyester filament still rose slightly. Of course, there were reasons for the hysteresis of polyester price adjustment, but more importantly, the price of polyester was affected by the price changes of upstream raw materials, but it also had its own logic.

　　 On the one hand is profit. From the recent profit chart of polyester filament products, we can see that by the middle of March, polyester profit began to decline. In the early April, there was a wave of improvement in the prices of raw materials and polyester, but it began to recede in the near future.

　　 ? ? ?? The two is the concentration of capacity. The production capacity of polyester filament has been concentrated in several major factories in recent years, and this concentration has been accelerated this year due to the epidemic situation. The concentration of this capacity makes polyester leading enterprises have a strong pricing power for polyester prices, so we often see the situation of "raw material rising, polyester rising, raw material falling, polyester not falling".

　　 ? ? ?? The three is the way of weaving enterprises to buy raw materials. Because the price of polyester filament has dropped greatly over the past two years, weaving enterprises have not enough confidence in polyester price. Therefore, many enterprises choose to buy with them, and the enterprises that choose to hoard raw materials for months are much less than before. Under such circumstances, raw materials will rise or fall, and will not affect most of the strategy of weaving enterprises to buy raw materials.

From the above points of view, the downstream demand of polyester filament in the near future is still not showing signs of improvement, and because the crude oil is empty, the probability of falling prices of PTA, ethylene glycol and other raw materials is relatively high. Therefore, from the two aspects of upstream and downstream, the possibility of polyester filament rising is not large.

But on the other hand, the profit of polyester filament has been compressed to a very low level. The polyester factory is very emotional. Therefore, in the coming period, the price of polyester will probably remain stable, and the possibility of a crash like the beginning of the year is not large.