Downstream Demand Is Light, Short, Short, Weak, Weak And Weak. How Long Will It Last?

Market brief

Zheng cotton main shock back to 11800 near the main contract, a small reduction in positions, June USDA supply and demand forecast report continued to reduce this year and next year's global consumption expectations, increase the end inventory, the cotton market has become bad, the decline of the United States cotton impact on the domestic mentality, concerned about Zheng cotton main performance in the vicinity of 11700. The price of the lint spot market is slightly lower than that of Zheng cotton, and the enthusiasm of the cotton mills has increased slightly, and the spot trading has improved. But basically, the cotton mill needs to purchase mainly. Some of the businessmen are waiting for a lower position, while the Beijing epidemic is reappearing, resulting in a growing market anxiety. The market is not good enough, and cotton prices continue to be weak.

June 12th cotton warehouse receipt situation: 23006 registered warehouse receipts, 190 fewer than yesterday; effective forecast 2890; warehouse receipt and forecast volume 25896, equivalent to 1 million 35 thousand and 840 tons of cotton. According to the China cotton net survey of 154 cotton deliveries and warehouses in 18 provinces of China, the cotton business inventories in the whole country were about 3 million 774 thousand tons at the end of May, and the annulus ratio decreased by 524 thousand, a decrease of 12.2%, an increase of 246 thousand over the same period last year. Among them, Xinjiang is 2 million 168 thousand, the ring ratio is reduced by 701 thousand, the mainland is 1 million 328 thousand, the chain ratio is increased by 190 thousand, the bonded area is 278 thousand, the ring ratio is reduced by 13 thousand.

The price of acrylonitrile has been temporarily stabilized, and the factory has a very poor mentality. Some markets are still selling at a high price. The sellers have not been able to sell smoothly with the market, and the offer has weakened. The market has heard of low price offers. The demand for the mainstream downstream applications has been stable in recent years. The supply of acrylonitrile has been recovered from the previous month, but the market is expecting higher manufacturers' monthly expectations, so the spot low reports are also limited. The overall turnover is not large, and the price of acrylonitrile is still limited by a narrow range. The price of acrylic staple fiber has been arranged sideways, the downstream cotton mill has stocked up opportunistically, the purchasing enthusiasm has been improved, some acrylic manufacturers have increased the volume of signing, there is no pressure on the stock, but the terminal demand performance is general. The manufacturers are optimistic about the expectation of the futures market, and the price of acrylonitrile in the short term is at a high level. Under the pressure of cost, the price of the acrylic manufacturers is still rising, and the factory news is expected to be short. The price of line acrylic fiber is stabilized.

Weakening of crude oil shocks, PTA main futures decline, spot offer also declined, the market performance is generally strong, strong base, on the previous day, the spot market turnover of about 5000 tons, buying mainly traders, long-term and non point price of about 10 thousand tons, crude oil is still the main factor affecting the current market, the recent rebound is not enough driven, and accompanied by the maintenance device restart. The supply of PTA will be exhausted again, and PTA is expected to enter a weakening adjustment pattern. The staple price of the polyester staple fiber enterprises has been lowered, the negotiating space continues to increase, the market mentality is weak, the overall production and marketing is light, and the production and sales of the mainstream enterprises are near 29%. In recent years, the supply of polyester staple fiber industry is increasing. However, the supply of the downstream mills is weak, and the demand for polyester and short staple has not improved significantly. Under the pressure of shipment, the price of polyester staple fiber is facing a downward pressure. Considering that inventory is not high, the market is expected to have a relatively limited decline, and continue to give up the main products.

Sticky short market continues the stalemate market, the mainstream factory maintains the single negotiated state, the market mentality is cautious, the trader's shipping enthusiasm increases, and the negotiation tends to be flexible. At present, the domestic terminal supplier talks about 8800-9000 yuan / ton (Cheng Dui), the middle and low end goods price is 8600 yuan / ton (acceptance), the high-end goods source is 8900-9100 yuan / ton (Cheng Dui), and the big factory is strong in 9500-9600 yuan / ton (Cheng Dui), but No deal, most downstream customers still hold a low price source of goods has not yet been digested, some of the yarn raw materials available until the end of the month, sticky short factory is still in the implementation of the previous order and money back, the recent cotton yarn market is weak, cotton yarn products inventory growth and production load is expected to remain low, sticky short demand is still no improvement expected, traders shipping mood is increasing. Sticky short real single price will be low concentration to the interval, negotiation space also has increased expectations.

With the decline of Zheng cotton, the downstream gauze turnover was obviously weakened, the price pressure situation was widespread, the yarn market turnover was also weakened, the textile enterprises generally suffered losses, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. Under the current domestic demand and the lack of external demand, there were only a few orders in the market, and the yarn production capacity remained too obvious. Some textile enterprises were giving up the wheat harvest, and they planned to put the high temperature holiday on next month. Profit is only enough to maintain production, textile enterprises generally feedback, 6-8 months of the off-season is unavoidable, and the export orders of high count yarn, high density and high density grey cloth are much lower than expected. The "short flat" small single spinning enterprises have lower profits. After entering 7-8 months, the cash flow of textile enterprises is generally tight. Some factories will reduce production or even reduce staff, so long as they get through the most difficult time, the market in 8 and September will get out. Will slowly enter the peak season.

Pure polyester yarn cost support weakened, external single market affected by the outbreak of overseas fermentation, the domestic market, the Jiangsu and Zhejiang circular machine is insufficient, the demand for pure polyester yarn is not good, Guangdong market coarse yarn inquiry slightly improved, only a limited follow-up, under the pressure of yarn business to stabilize the market, the real single benefit expansion, the market is still short of polyester and short space, and yarn enterprises finished product inventory gradually accumulated, is expected to be short. Pure polyester yarn will remain stable and weak during the period. The market of cotton yarn is weak, and it can be discussed in the field. The traditional demand is mainly to supervise the shipment in the off-season. At the same time, some enterprises are losing their production. With the low concentration of raw viscose staple fiber, the processing cost of cotton yarn is relatively limited and the adjustment space is not enough. The price of polyester cotton yarn is moderate and the price of yarn is stable. The demand for terminal is not ideal. When the industry is cautious, the new market is not enough to maintain the rigid demand transaction. Although the raw material support is weakened, the profit of polyester cotton yarn is close to the profit and loss line. It is expected that the price of the main market will stabilize and some of the high prices may be overcast.

In order to promote consumption and steady employment, the China Textile Industry Federation announced in June 11th that it will be designated as China's clothing live broadcast every year in June 26th, and the first live broadcast of this year will be held in Xiping County, Zhumadian, Henan. According to the introduction, there will be more than 100 enterprises and shops connected with more than 100 enterprises in live broadcast on the upcoming live broadcast day in June 26th, which will bring more traffic to the development of the textile and garment industry. The clothing industry is one of the important traditional industries in Henan Province, with 16.7 enterprises. Xiping County, as the pilot park of the textile industry transfer, has formed a ten billion scale clothing brand industry chain. Especially in recent years, Henan province actively promoted the "clever daughter-in-law project", and integrated the 6 million left behind rural clever daughter-in-law, creating a new pattern of precision poverty alleviation in the clothing industry. It is predicted that in 2020, the scale of China's direct seeding electricity supplier market will be close to 1 trillion yuan, an increase of 130% over the 422 billion 800 million yuan in 2019, while the 2019 online live data show that 46% of the clothing commodities accounted for 46% of the total volume of transactions.

In June 8th, with the three phase of Xinjiang East pure Hing Group, the 25 most advanced spinning and weaving equipment of East Lake textile industry was put into operation. The 400 thousand spindles of East Lake Xing company have all been opened, marking the construction of 1 million spindles of East Chun Hing Group. At present, the efficiency of air jet spinning has reached over 96.4%, and all indexes are stable, and zero accidents and zero risks are realized. Xinjiang East pure Hing Group is a state-controlled enterprise jointly established by the third provincial divisions of the Guangdong provincial Party committee, the provincial government and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps. It is located in Cao Hu Town, Kashi, Xinjiang, with a total investment of 3 billion 940 million yuan. It is the 1 million textile demonstration project of the grass lake Guangdong textile and garment industrial park, with Xinjiang Dong Chun Xing Textile Co., Ltd., tumu Shu Ke Dong Heng Xing Textile Technology Co., Ltd. Shu Ke East Lake Xing Textile Co., Ltd. three companies.

In June 8th, VU home textile held a "new 2020 Nantong Vu home textile new aesthetic new image conference". Dealers across the country came to the wind and signed the contract with fruitful results. To speed up the sale of our home textiles, we have to define a new track: the new global aesthetic life Pavilion of Fu rye home textile is concerned about the long-term value. We have invested more than 100 million yuan in our home textiles, and built state-level technology centers, new global aesthetic labs and postdoctoral research workstations. Now we have an international top design team, 128 national patent technologies, four certified standards in China, Europe and the United States, and have been exported for 21 consecutive years.

600448.SH announced that in June 11, 2020, the company received the notice of Binzhou finance and binyin group. Binzhou finance and binyin group have signed the "state owned shares free transfer agreement", which will hold about 27 million 564 thousand and 500 shares of China Textile Limited by Share Ltd held by binyin group (including about 22 million 970 thousand and 400 shares held by Binzhou SASAC's approval, and the SASAC approved in June 11, 2020. About 4 million 594 thousand and 100 shares of rights and interests allocated by Huafang shares accounted for 4.38% of the total share capital of the target company and transferred to Binzhou's capital without compensation.

In June 11th, the National Standardization Management Committee issued a notice that it decided to extend the implementation date of the national standard of GB 2626-2019 respiratory protective self suction particulate filter respirator for July 1, 2021. The GB 2626-2019 standard, originally scheduled for July 1, 2020, will put forward higher requirements on respirator resistance, airtightness, practical performance, cleaning and disinfection of KN95 respirators, and can better reflect the performance of respirators in actual use. GB 2626-2019 the mandatory national standard for respiratory protection self priming filter particulate respirator was released in December 31, 2019, and the original transitional period was 6 months. In order to fully support the new crown pneumonia epidemic prevention and control work and ensure the stable supply of respirator products, after the study, we decided to extend the implementation date of the national standard of GB 2626-2019 respiratory protective self suction particulate filter respirator for July 1, 2021. In accordance with the relevant provisions of the "mandatory national standards governing measures", enterprises can choose to implement GB 2626-2006 or GB 2626-2019 by themselves during the transition period before July 1, 2021. Encourage qualified enterprises to organize production as early as possible according to the new standards.

According to the analysis of foreign research institutions, the global cotton trade in 2019 decreased by 85% from the weight of cotton, and the total volume of trade decreased from 13 billion 970 million US dollars in 2017 to US $12 billion 490 million in 2019, a 10.65% decline. Compared with the previous year, the total volume of cotton trade in 2019 dropped by 14.39%. In addition, trade in 2022 is expected to drop to $10 billion 550 million, down 15.54% from 2019. In 2019, China ($5 billion 710 million) and Pakistan ($400 million) were the world's leading exporters of cotton, accounting for 74.13% of total exports. Followed by India ($280 million), Turkey ($230 million) and Hongkong, China ($220 million). In 2019, Vietnam (1 billion 56 million US dollars), Kampuchea (366 million US dollars) and China (214 million US dollars) were the main importers of cotton cloth in the world, accounting for 38.56% of total imports. Followed by Hongkong, China ($190 million), Indonesia ($179 million) and Burma ($121 million).

According to the US Department of agriculture's June Global Forecast of production and demand, the US cotton consumption in 2019/20 decreased by 200 thousand packages, to 2 million 500 thousand bales, and the consumption in June was reduced by 100 thousand packs. The final inventory in 2019/20 and 2020/21 is 7 million 300 thousand packages and 8 million packages respectively. The inventory consumption ratio of 2020/21 was 43%, slightly higher than that of last year, but significantly lower than that of recent years, but far lower than 55% of 2007/08. In 2020/21, the world's cotton production and consumption were reduced and the final inventory was increased by 5 million 200 thousand packages. The consumption volume of the current year and the next year was reduced by more than 2 million packages. In the year of 2020/21, global output was reduced by 2 million 125 thousand packages, and consumption in China and India was reduced by 1 million packages and 500 thousand packs respectively. The final inventory in the world was 105 million packs, the highest since 2014/15.

Market curve